On Politics: What mattered this week

Democrats' not-so-terrible news, the limits of Trump's power and the allure of '24.

View in browser|nytimes.com January 28, 2022 NEWSLETTER NOTICE Beginning in mid-February, the On Politics newsletter will be available only to Times subscribers. Subscribe to The Times now for $1/week for access to Times journalism and all of our newsletters — to follow your interests and discover others. By Leah Askarinam and Blake Hounshell Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, is in a statistical dead heat in his re-election bid. He is polling better than Biden for job performance.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times The week in politics President Biden got some rare good news this week, with Justice Stephen Breyer announcing his retirement from the Supreme Court and economic data showing rising wages and booming G.D.P. growth. And while inflation is still rising fast, a few new polls suggest that Biden's slump might not doom Democrats' chances of hanging onto the Senate after all. As for Republicans, one theme we're watching is the tug of war between Donald Trump and candidates who aren't bending to his will. And finally, it's never too early to think about the next presidential election. For many ambitious politicians, 2022 is just a speed bump on the road to 2024. There's a silver lining for Democrats We know you're tired of us repeating that Biden is a drag on Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. But we want to draw your attention to some recent polling that affirms that Biden is struggling, and also complicates the conventional wisdom: Georgia's Democratic senator up for re-election seems significantly more popular than Biden. Two separate polls released this week — one from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the other from Quinnipiac — found Biden's approval rating in the mid-30s. Given those numbers, it's not surprising that Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, isn't in the lead. What's noteworthy is that despite Biden's poor rating, Warnock isn't necessarily behind, either. In the Atlanta paper's poll, Warnock landed himself in a statistical tie — he was behind by a few points, but within the poll's margin of error — against Herschel Walker, the leading Republican candidate. Even though Biden's approval rating was just 34 percent in that poll, Warnock had consolidated 44 percent of the vote. What that suggests to us: A major share of Georgia voters disapproved of Biden's job performance but were still on board with Warnock. Likewise, in the Quinnipiac poll, while 59 percent disapproved of Biden's job performance, just 40 percent disapproved of Warnock's. The slightest improvement in Biden's approval rating could put Warnock on even ground with Walker, or even slightly ahead. If Democratic senators who are up for re-election can replicate that model in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire, the party just might be able to keep its majority intact. Trump can't get people to stop running Even if Trump's endorsement can help Republicans stand out in a primary, some candidates who haven't gotten his blessing aren't giving up. The latest example is Mark Walker, a former House lawmaker who is running for the Senate in North Carolina. Trump, who endorsed Representative Ted Budd in that state's primary, encouraged Walker to abandon his Senate bid and return to the House instead. Weeks after traveling to Florida to discuss his options with Trump, Walker announced at a rally on Thursday that he was staying in the Senate race. Months ago, Pat McCrory, a former governor of North Carolina, also made clear that he would not exit the Senate race just because Trump had endorsed his rival. "If supporters of President Trump want his agenda to be supported in the US Senate, they should not vote for Ted Budd," McCrory tweeted in June. It's a reminder that while Trump might be the most important person in the Republican Party, he doesn't have universal control. He can elevate candidates, but that doesn't mean that he alone can get them over the finish line. Take Representative Mo Brooks of Alabama, whose endorsement from Trump didn't stop Katie Britt from entering the Senate primary there, nor did it prevent retiring Senator Richard Shelby from promoting Britt, his former chief of staff. And there's Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, whose refusal to throw out his state's election results in 2020 earned him a top spot on Trump's enemies list. Trump persuaded another Republican, former Senator David Perdue, to challenge Kemp. And the Georgia polling indicates that Kemp still enjoys an edge in the primary. 2022 is a stage for 2024 A number of Republican governors have been downright ornery in expressing their lack of interest in running for Senate seats this year: Larry Hogan in Maryland, Chris Sununu in New Hampshire, Doug Ducey in Arizona. Hogan said he had "no interest whatsoever" in the job. Sununu, who has been dismissive of Republican senators, said he didn't want to just be a "roadblock" in Washington. And Ducey has repeatedly said he's not running. The job none of them has ruled out? President of the United States of America. What caught our eye this week was a digital ad running in New Hampshire, ostensibly attacking Senator Maggie Hassan, the incumbent Democrat who is up for re-election in 2022. The ad, paid for by Senate Republicans, accuses Hassan of voting to "give stimulus checks to voters in jail." Glenn Kessler, the chief writer of The Fact Checker at The Washington Post, has examined that line of attack and notes that it's misleading, because "the previous stimulus bills passed last year under GOP control also did not bar payments to prisoners." Hassan, her campaign points out, has also written to the Treasury Department to clarify that state and local law enforcement could seize those checks and use them to compensate victims. But what's noteworthy to us is the appearance in the ad of Senator Rick Scott, the ambitious former Florida governor who chairs Senate Republicans' campaign arm. It's highly unusual for the head of a campaign committee to appear in attack ads — especially in New Hampshire, one of the early stops for aspiring presidential candidates. David Jolly, formerly a Republican member of the House from Florida who is now registered as an independent voter, said he wasn't surprised by the move. "Rick Scott is someone who is desperately seeking a lane to run for president, and he hasn't found it," Jolly told us. When we emailed Chris Hartline, a spokesman for Scott, asking whether the ad was unusual, he wrote back: "I don't know what's typical. And what's typical is not really a concern to me." What to read tonight The congressional panel investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol subpoenaed a group of 14 people who falsely presented themselves as electors for Trump, Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer report. The White House cat, Willow, has finally arrived. Graham Bowley interviewed W. Kamau Bell, who said his new documentary, "We Need to Talk About Cosby," was really a story about "two runaway forces of oppression in America." In Ohio, two wildly different candidates clashed onstage at a debate that illuminated both would-be senators' hunger for attention, Trip Gabriel reports. Les Miserables: The percentage of Americans saying they are "not too happy" is at historic levels, new survey data shows. Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia brought his bulldog, Babydog, to the podium to make a point during his State of the State address.Chris Dorst/Charleston Gazette-Mail, via Associated Press One more thing … Here's a dogged way to end a 125-minute speech. As he wrapped up his State of the State address on Thursday, Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia beckoned to a trusted aide — Babydog, the state's First Dog. Then things got weird. The governor sat his bulldog on the podium. After alluding to a tweet from Bette Midler — she had referred to West Virginia as "Poor, illiterate and strung out" — he lifted Babydog into his arms and showed her rear end to the audience in the House of Delegates and watching at home. "Babydog," he said, "tells Bette Midler and all of those out there — kiss her hiney." Thanks for reading. We'll see you on Monday. — Blake & Leah Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. NEWSLETTER NOTICE Enjoying this newsletter? Subscribe to keep receiving it. We've reserved a selection of newsletters, including this one, for Times subscribers. Subscriber support ensures that we have the resources to deliver this must-read, five-day-a-week newsletter that unpacks and illuminates American politics from every angle. Your access to this newsletter ends in mid-February. Become a Times subscriber for $1/week to enjoy our journalism and to continue to read this newsletter and any others you find interesting. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times. 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On Politics: The man at the center of Arizona’s Senate primary

Spoiler alert: It's Donald Trump.

View in browser|nytimes.com January 27, 2022 NEWSLETTER NOTICE Beginning in mid-February, the On Politics newsletter will be available only to Times subscribers. Subscribe to The Times now for $1/week for access to Times journalism and all of our newsletters — to follow your interests and discover others. By Leah Askarinam and Blake Hounshell In the U.S. Senate primary in Arizona, Republicans might become so consumed with winning Donald Trump's blessing that they lose sight of the general election.Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times The high stakes of a G.O.P. primary Senator Kyrsten Sinema has received so much attention recently that you might have forgotten that she's not the Arizona Democrat up for re-election in 2022. That would be Senator Mark Kelly. As a freshman Democrat in a state that President Biden won by less than a percentage point in 2020, he's one of four vulnerable incumbents whom Republicans are targeting as they seek to regain the majority in the U.S. Senate. If Republicans fail to knock off Kelly, a popular former astronaut with piles of campaign cash, it'll be for one main reason, party strategists and pollsters tell us: A primary so consumed with winning Donald Trump's blessing that the Republican Party sets itself up to lose the general election. "With the current electoral environment shaping up to be very pro-Republican, the only potential issue is that a hard-right candidate comes out of the primary and ends up losing in what should be a gimme Republican year," said Mike Noble, an Arizona-based pollster. The obvious choice for a challenger to Kelly might have been Doug Ducey, Arizona's Republican governor. He managed to win re-election in a brutal year for Republicans and is not allowed to run for a third term. But Ducey has steadfastly maintained he's not interested in the Senate. That leaves a number of lesser-known Republicans to vie for the nomination. The best way to stand out? Obtaining the endorsement of Trump, which means making remarks or taking positions that could haunt them in November. First, there's Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who's worked in Arizona government for the last decade. But he faces intense pressure from Trump and from the Republican grass-roots to find fraud in his investigation of the 2020 election. At an Arizona rally earlier this month, Trump referred to his baseless claims that he actually won the state and told the crowd that he was "anxiously waiting" to see whether Brnovich would agree with him, and that they'd soon find out if the attorney general is a "good man." Brnovich, apparently undeterred, posted on Twitter a photo of himself with Trump. Trump reserved a warmer reception for Blake Masters, calling him "a really terrific guy" at the rally. Masters — a venture capitalist backed by Peter Thiel, a billionaire tech mogul who's close to Trump — has said that he believes Trump won in 2020 and that the country is being run by "psychopaths." Then there's Jim Lamon, a businessman whose campaign put $1 million behind a TV ad cheering "Let's Go Brandon," a far-right slogan that translates to an expletive directed at Biden. Lamon also helped facilitate Republicans' post-mortem review of the 2020 election results in the state's most populous county. All of these efforts to win the former president's support could backfire in the fall if Democrats are able to anchor the eventual nominee to Trump. "Yes, it's a big benefit and help during the primary due to Trump's current influence over the electorate," Noble said. "However, it is absolutely a weakness when they move into the all-important general election." It's 'the Republicans' to lose' Before we go any further, let's make one thing clear: Given the national environment, Republicans should have a natural advantage in a state that Biden won so narrowly. It's not just that the party in the White House tends to struggle in the first midterm election of a president's term, or that the president's approval ratings are hovering in the low 40s. It's also that Biden inherited a pandemic and all the economic and social fallout that came with it. And that Arizona was ruby red only a few short years ago, suggesting that Kelly's three-point margin in 2020 could be easy enough to erase. "It's absolutely the Republicans' to lose," Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based Republican consultant, said of the race. Republicans are confident that whoever becomes their nominee will enter the race against Kelly in a strong position to win. "​​Voters and persuadable swing voters will be inclined to want to vote for someone who's going to be a check and a balance on the Biden administration," said Daniel Scarpinato, a former chief of staff to Ducey. Proceeding with caution Arizona elected two Democratic senators during Trump's term and ultimately voted to oust him in 2020. And even in a national environment that could lift Republicans to the majority, they could still find ways to lose. Scarpinato said he hasn't seen candidates engage in behavior that would "tear the party apart or put people in a position where they're perceived as being unelectable." But he cautioned that Republicans can't become so preoccupied with fighting one another in the primary — which is not until August — that they delay their attacks against Kelly. "They need to start now," Scarpinato said. One Republican national strategist involved in Senate races told us that the top concern for many in his party is that the eventual nominee drains all their resources on the primary, leaving them cash-strapped against Kelly, who ended last year with nearly $20 million in his campaign account. And while others noted that while Republican-aligned outside groups such as the Club for Growth could make up any gaps in spending, money is likely one reason that many Republicans keep hoping Ducey changes his mind and decides to run, Noble said. Ducey was re-elected in 2018 even as Democrats won a Senate seat in Arizona for the first time in decades. He's already proven he can put together a top-tier statewide campaign operation. But Ducey has said publicly and privately that he's not running, and it's easy to see why: He'd have to get through a Republican primary and general election without the support of Trump, who blames him for losing the state in 2020. Just a few weeks ago, Trump reiterated in a statement that Ducey would never have his "endorsement or the support of MAGA Nation!" One of the great unknowns in the 2022 election is the effect of the president's approval rating. If it stays in the low 40s, Kelly could be ousted no matter how skilled a campaign he runs, or how bumbling an opponent he faces. "He has to carry around Joe Biden like a sack of potatoes wherever he goes," said Stan Barnes, a Republican strategist based in Phoenix. What to read tonight Some Democrats hope that nominating a Black woman to the Supreme Court will help solidify support from Black voters in the midterms, Trip Gabriel reports. The confirmation process will test Senator Dick Durbin, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, which is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. In his latest Congressional Memo, Carl Hulse asks if the Democrats' new voting bill talks are for real — or for show. The economy is growing faster than it has in decades, so why aren't voters rewarding Biden for it? Here's what economists told Jeanna Smialek and Ben Casselman. This is more of a recommendation on what to do tonight: Try gerrymandering an imaginary state in this online game created by Ella Koeze, Denise Lu and Charlie Smart. Justice Thomas, left, has been mistakenly referred to as Chief Justice, the position John Roberts, right, holds.Erin Schaff/The New York Times One more thing … A lighthearted moment accidentally illuminated some important dynamics on the Supreme Court — more consequential, perhaps, than the retirement of Justice Stephen Breyer. In oral arguments last week in a case about whether Boston can stop a private group from flying a Christian flag in front of its City Hall, a lawyer for the plaintiffs was addressing Clarence Thomas, a deeply conservative associate justice who joined the court in 1991. "Chief —" the lawyer, Mathew Staver, began, before correcting himself and continuing, "Justice Thomas." The little-noticed hiccup came after a flood of recent commentary and reporting on Thomas's growing influence after years on the margins of the court. Last year, Jill Abramson, the former executive editor of The New York Times, observed in an opinion essay that "what is remarkable is the extent to which the Supreme Court, with the addition of three Donald Trump nominees who create a 6-to-3 conservative majority, seems to be reshaping itself in Justice Thomas's image." This is the one thing that pundits of opposite political leanings seem to agree on: Liberals have lamented Thomas's role as "the new chief justice," while conservatives, including the influential Wall Street Journal editorial page, have hailed "the Thomas court." It's not the first time someone has made the same error. In March of last year, when a lawyer in another case mistakenly called Thomas "Mr. Chief Justice," the actual chief justice — John Roberts — joked, "There's no opening." Thanks for reading. We'll see you tomorrow. — Blake & Leah Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. NEWSLETTER NOTICE Enjoying this newsletter? Subscribe to keep receiving it. We've reserved a selection of newsletters, including this one, for Times subscribers. Subscriber support ensures that we have the resources to deliver this must-read, five-day-a-week newsletter that unpacks and illuminates American politics from every angle. Your access to this newsletter ends in mid-February. Become a Times subscriber for $1/week to enjoy our journalism and to continue to read this newsletter and any others you find interesting. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018