On Politics: Democrats find urgent new reasons to worry about Latino voters

Two reports shed light on the issues driving Hispanic voters.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story December 16, 2021 By Jennifer Medina National Reporter, Politics Supporters of Donald J. Trump celebrated in Little Havana, Fla., after the state was called for him on election night last year.Scott McIntyre for The New York Times Of all the 2020 hangovers, perhaps none is as befuddling to Democrats as the party's eroding support among Latino voters. And Democrats have plenty of reason to worry: For years, they have relied on Latinos as a crucial part of a winning coalition and held fast to the belief that the coalition would only grow along with new voters. Former President Donald J. Trump's policies and rhetorical attacks on immigrants, many Democrats reasoned, would drive Hispanic voters to their party like no other candidate could. But Trump's re-election campaign blew that theory out of the water: Hispanic support for him actually increased in 2020, particularly — but not only — in South Florida and South Texas. And two new reports this week show why Democrats should be worried. The first, by Equis Research, a Democratic-leaning group that focuses on Latinos, relies on polls and focus groups conducted over the year since the election. It found that the economy became the top issue for Latinos all over the country, replacing immigration for many voters. The report also found that fears of Democrats embracing socialist policies drove a large number of voters toward Trump, and that those fears persist even among Democratic voters. And in new polling by Way to Win, a Democratic-aligned group, the economy was seen as the most important issue among Latino voters. More alarming for Democrats though, is that half of all Hispanic voters polled in four key states said that they believed the country was going in the wrong direction. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT The poll surveyed 1,000 Latino voters in Texas, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona last month in both English and Spanish, and found that 58 percent of independent voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Still, 60 percent of all Latino voters surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of President Biden and the Democratic Party. But that level of support won't be enough to hold on to the House or Senate in the midterms, said Tory Gavito, the president of Way to Win. "To win next November, we need to have Latinos at the 70 mark for Democrats, so we've got to move for these folks," Gavito said in an interview. "Right now we see the support, but it's soft." Kristian Ramos, the campaign manager for Way to Win's midterm message research project, said: "We could easily lose them to the couch. This administration has done 10 times more on Covid, has done miraculous work on the economy, but Latinos have no idea. And the economic anxiety in this group is off the charts." Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Half of those polled by Way to Win said that they trusted the Democratic Party more on the issues of jobs and the economy, while 54 percent said they approved of Biden's handling of the economy. Among those who have an unfavorable view of the party, 22 percent say it is too liberal or socialist, according to the poll. Yet the majority of those surveyed said they wished that Biden could have enacted more change than he has so far, which pollsters tied to "deep anxiety about the economy." "They don't really care ideologically, as long as someone is speaking to those pain points," Ramos said. The Equis report found that Latinos who may have been otherwise inclined to vote for Trump in 2016 withheld their support in that campaign because of his hard-line stance on immigration and the "importance of the Hispanic identity." But by the middle of 2020, neither of those issues clearly differentiated Trump supporters and Democratic voters. Instead, the impact of the pandemic appeared to drive a larger number of voters, and the Trump administration's approach to reopening the economy was embraced by a majority of them. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT The Equis research found that Democrats are losing ground to Republicans on issues relating to the economy. Asked which party they find more accurately described as valuing hard work, better for the American workers and the party of the American dream, Latino voters were roughly evenly divided. "The challenge is that 2020 hasn't ended, the same dynamics haven't ended," said Carlos Odio, the co-founder of Equis. If there is a moral to the story, Odio added, it is that less partisan Latinos moved toward the candidate they trusted more on their top issue. "So competing for the vote can pay off." James O'Keefe, the founder of Project Veritas, in 2020.Samuel Corum/Getty Images How Ashley Biden's diary made its way to Project Veritas By Adam Goldman and Michael S. Schmidt In the final two months of the 2020 campaign, President Donald Trump, his grip on power slipping because of his handling of the pandemic, desperately tried to change the narrative by attacking the business dealings of Joe Biden's son Hunter, invoking his name publicly over 100 times. At the same time, another effort was underway in secret to try to expose the contents of a diary kept the previous year by Biden's daughter, Ashley Biden, as she underwent treatment for addiction. Now, more than a year later, the Justice Department is deep into an investigation of how the diary found its way into the hands of supporters of Trump at the height of the campaign. Federal prosecutors and F.B.I. agents are investigating whether there was a criminal conspiracy among a handful of individuals to steal and publish the diary. Those being scrutinized include current and former operatives for the conservative group Project Veritas; a donor Trump appointed to a political position in the final days of his administration; a man who once pleaded guilty in a money laundering scheme; and a financially struggling mother of two, according to people familiar with federal grand jury subpoenas and a search warrant who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation. Extensive interviews with people involved in or briefed on the investigation and a review of court filings, police records and other material help flesh out elements of a tale that is testing the line between investigative journalism and political dirty tricks. Read the full article. Subscribe Today We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer. RECOMMENDED READING Doug Mills/The New York Times Meadows and the Band of Loyalists: How They Fought to Keep Trump in Power A small circle of Republican lawmakers, working closely with President Donald J. Trump's chief of staff, took on an outsize role in pressuring the Justice Department, amplifying conspiracy theories and flooding the courts in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election. By Katie Benner, Catie Edmondson, Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer Oliver Contreras for The New York Times Facing Subpoenas, Trump Allies Try to Run Out the Clock on Democrats Democrats hope a Biden Justice Department can speed up legal action, but Donald J. Trump and his allies are proving adept at using judicial delay to withhold information from Congress. By Jonathan Weisman and Luke Broadwater Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. 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On Politics: 10 Senate races to watch in 2022

Democrats have a razor-thin margin that could be upended with the loss of a single seat.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story December 14, 2021 By Neil Vigdor Most of the competitive races are in states that were fiercely contested in 2020.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times A single state could determine whether Democrats maintain control of the Senate after the midterm elections, a tenuous advantage that hinges on the tiebreaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Thirty-four Senate seats are at stake in 2022, but the list of races considered competitive is much smaller. Most are in states that were fiercely contested by President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump in 2020. The burden will be on Democrats to try to ward off the midterm losses that have historically bedeviled the party holding the presidency, said Donna Brazile, a former interim party head and veteran strategist. "Joe Biden has a lot riding on these states," she said. "He doesn't have a lot of wiggle room." Alaska Of the seven Republicans in the Senate who voted to convict Trump in the impeachment trial that followed the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Senator Lisa Murkowski is the only one facing re-election in 2022. Trump, who is seeking to exact revenge against his impeachment foes, endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, to run against Murkowski in the primary. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat who won a special election in 2020 to fill the seat once held by John McCain, is now seeking a full term. Both parties are prioritizing the race. The Republican field includes Mark Brnovich, Arizona's attorney general since 2015; Mick McGuire, a retired major general in the U.S. Air Force; Jim Lamon, a businessman; and Blake Masters, chief operating officer of an investment firm run by Trump's tech pal Peter Thiel. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Georgia Stacey Abrams's decision to run again for governor could boost the re-election prospects of Senator Raphael Warnock, a fellow Democrat, Brazile said. Warnock, the pastor at the storied Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, is seeking a full term after defeating Kelly Loeffler last January in a runoff. His victory helped give Democrats control of both Senate seats in Georgia, where an expansion of the Democratic voter rolls in Atlanta's suburbs has dented Republicans' political advantage in the South and flipped the state for Biden. Now, Warnock is seeking a full term. "What he'll get from Stacey is somebody who can stir up the electorate to get the results he needs to win in 2022," Brazile said. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Herschel Walker, the Georgia college football legend backed by Trump, is the favorite among seven Republicans who have filed to run so far. He has faced repeated accusations of threatening his ex-wife. Florida In Trump's adopted home state, Senator Marco Rubio is seeking a third term. Rubio had raised more than $11.6 million in 2021 through September. He is facing Representative Val B. Demings, a Democrat with significant name recognition who out-raised him over the same period, with more than $13 million. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator, faces her first re-election test since her milestone victory in 2016, a race that was flooded with nearly $90 million in outside spending. Opposing her is Adam Laxalt, a former Nevada attorney general who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018. Laxalt has been endorsed by both Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader. Biden carried Nevada by fewer than 34,000 votes last year. New Hampshire Republicans have circled New Hampshire as a pickup opportunity, salivating over the dismal approval numbers of Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat. But their enthusiasm was tempered when Gov. Chris Sununu said that he would run again for his current office instead of the Senate. Kelly Ayotte, whom Hassan unseated by about 1,000 votes in 2016, also opted out. Don Bolduc, a tough-talking Republican candidate and retired Army general, caused a stir recently when he called Sununu a "Chinese communist sympathizer." North Carolina Senator Richard Burr, another Republican who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, is retiring. Waiting in the wings is a crowded field of Republicans that includes Pat McCrory, a former governor; Representative Ted Budd, who has been endorsed by Trump; and Mark Walker, a former congressman. The Democrats include Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of North Carolina's Supreme Court and the first Black woman to serve in that role, and Jeff Jackson, a state senator and military veteran from the Charlotte area. Ohio A large field of G.O.P. candidates will vie for the seat being vacated by the Republican senator Rob Portman, who is retiring. The leading Republican is Josh Mandel, Ohio's former treasurer and an ardent Trump supporter. J.D. Vance, the "Hillbilly Elegy" author and Republican venture capitalist who has performed a whiplash-inducing conversion to Trumpism, is also running. Other G.O.P. candidates include Matt Dolan, a state senator; Jane Timkin, the state party's former head; and the businessmen Bernie Moreno and Mike Gibbons. "You've got a lot of people fighting for the populist conservative lane," said Beth Hansen, a Republican strategist and former manager of John Kasich's campaigns for governor and president. Hansen downplayed the possibility of Republicans alienating moderate voters in a combative primary. "Honestly, I'm not sure these guys could pivot any further to the right," she said. Representative Tim Ryan, supported by Ohio's other senator, Sherrod Brown, is a prohibitive favorite among Democrats. Pennsylvania An open-seat race in Pennsylvania generated even more of a buzz when the celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz recently jumped into fray. He joined a large group of candidates trying to succeed Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican critic of Trump who is retiring. Oz's entrance came just days after Sean Parnell, a leading Republican endorsed by Trump, suspended his campaign amid allegations of spousal and child abuse. Kathy Barnette, a former financial executive, is also running as a Republican, and David McCormick, a hedge fund executive, has been exploring getting into the race as well. Democrats have several seasoned candidates that include Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Representative Conor Lamb. Also running are Dr. Val Arkoosh, a top elected official from the Philadelphia suburbs, and Malcolm Kenyatta, a state representative from Philadelphia. Wisconsin A top target of Democrats is Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican whose approval rating has cratered amid an onslaught of television ads criticizing him for casting doubts about Biden's election. Johnson has yet to announce his re-election plans. The top tier of Democrats includes Mandela Barnes, the lieutenant governor; Sarah Godlewski, the state treasurer; Alex Lasry, the Milwaukee Bucks executive ; and Tom Nelson, the top elected official in Outagamie County. A member of the Proud Boys at an anti-Biden rally last month in Ortonville, Mich.Emily Elconin/Reuters The Proud Boys have regrouped locally to add to their ranks before the midterms. By Sheera Frenkel They showed up last month outside the school board building in Beloit, Wis., to protest school masking requirements. They turned up days later at a school board meeting in New Hanover County, N.C., before a vote on a mask mandate. They also attended a gathering in Downers Grove, Ill., where parents were trying to remove a nonbinary author's graphic novel from public school libraries. Members of the Proud Boys, the far-right nationalist group, have increasingly appeared in recent months at town council gatherings, school board presentations and health department question-and-answer sessions across the country. Their presence at the events is part of a strategy shift by the militia organization toward a larger goal: to bring their brand of menacing politics to the local level. Read the full story. Subscribe Today We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer. RECOMMENDED READING Mary Altaffer/The Associated Press Cuomo Is Ordered to Forfeit Earnings From $5.1 Million Book Deal Former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo received authorization to write the book under false pretenses, the board had previously ruled. By Grace Ashford and Luis Ferré-Sadurní Al Drago for The New York Times House Set to Refer Contempt Charge Against Meadows in Jan. 6 Inquiry The former White House chief of staff previously provided the committee with thousands of pages of documents, including text messages he received on Jan. 6. By Luke Broadwater Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. 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