On Politics: 7 wish lists for the new year

What do the president, vice president, former president and party leaders want in 2022?

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story December 23, 2021 By Shane Goldmacher Happy Holidays from the On Politics team! We're off next week, but we have exciting news: This newsletter is relaunching in the new year with new authors, Blake Hounshell and Leah Askarinam. Look for their first edition to hit your inbox in early January. President Biden's Christmas wish list might include a stronger economy, shrinking inflation and a disappearing virus.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times Given that this is the last On Politics newsletter before Christmas, and of 2021 for that matter, it seems like a good time to take stock and reflect on what a wish list might be for the nation's leaders. Today, Democrats control both the White House and Congress. But the party's hold on power is so slim — the 50-50 split in the Senate means that Vice President Kamala Harris must break tied votes — that the entire Biden agenda is dependent on every single Democrat's falling into line. And they aren't all doing so. History bodes poorly for the party of the president in a first midterm election, and many Democrats are bracing for a rout in 2022. Here is what we think the nation's leaders are looking for in the New Year: President Biden: He won the Democratic nomination after making two early bets in the primary that paid off big: that he would be seen as the most electable Democrat and that Black voters would be a loyal base. Both bets paid off. Similarly, Biden made an early two-pronged bet about the midterms: that a surging economy and a waning threat from the coronavirus would deliver victory to the Democrats. Right now, neither is happening. The omicron variant is bringing rising caseloads and fresh fears despite the widespread availability of vaccines. Meanwhile, monthly economic reports tell the story of the fastest inflation in decades, the kind of in-your-face figures that can swamp other positive economic indicators like the unemployment rate. Wish list: a stronger economy, shrinking inflation and a disappearing virus. Mitch McConnell: The Senate Republican leader has an excellent shot at returning to the majority in 2023 — after only two years in the minority. But while the overall political landscape appears rosy for the Republicans, McConnell's party must navigate a series of primary races next spring and summer that he and his allies worry could result in extreme and unelectable nominees. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Former President Donald J. Trump is an added X-factor. He has provided early endorsements for candidates who are not exactly prototypical McConnell recruits, including in North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, where the first Trump endorsee already dropped out. These days, Trump has even taken to insulting McConnell by name. Wish list: mainstream nominees in swing states for 2022; a toning down of Trump's attacks. (The latter is probably more pipe dream than wish.) Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi: The Senate majority leader and House speaker want mostly the same thing: to successfully negotiate passage of an enormous social policy bill, the Build Back Better Act, that would remake the social safety net and environmental policy. But there is precious little maneuvering room when you need the votes of liberal firebrands as well as the most conservative members of the caucus, like Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Schumer has literally no votes to spare, which means every Democratically aligned senator holds de facto veto power. He also needs all 50 of those senators to stay healthy and present, not just for the Build Back Better bill but also other priorities like confirming judges and an attempt to pass voting-rights legislation. Wish list: Democratic health and unity; passage of the Build Back Better Act. Joe Manchin: The Senate's most conservative and consequential Democrat recently declared on Fox News — yes, Fox News — that he was a no on the Build Back Better Act. It sent the White House scrambling and delivered a potentially fatal setback to the party's signature legislation. Wish list: If Democrats knew for sure, it would already be in the bill. Kevin McCarthy: The House Republican leader has already started to be cast as the next speaker — presuming his party retakes the chamber — but his ascent would depend on more than just a Republican majority in 2022. Mr. McCarthy had to abandon his speakership ambitions in 2015. To succeed in 2023, he faces what Politico recently described as a "vexing speaker math problem": a cohort of members yearning for an alternative, including some floating Trump himself. That may be far-fetched. But it is a sign of how hard it would be for McCarthy to navigate a majority as narrow as the one Pelosi has. Wish list: winning a big enough G.O.P. majority in 2022 to lead and run the House. Kamala Harris: The history-making vice president has faced a rash of negative media coverage in her first year and discovered, as Mark Z. Barabak of The Los Angeles Times put it, that the "vice presidency is an inherently subordinate position and one that sits ripe for ridicule." Some of her most senior communications advisers are departing, and 2022 offers the chance at a reset, especially given the uncertainty — despite the White House's public proclamations otherwise — that Biden will seek re-election in 2024, the year he will turn 82. Wish list: greater staff stability and a more positive portrayal in the press. Donald J. Trump: The former president may be off social media, but he has not receded from the political scene. He has been issuing statements from his new PAC at Twitterlike speed, endorsing a raft of candidates and continuing to raise money online by the bucketload, all while he is under investigation in New York for his business practices. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT He is talking out loud about running for president again. But for a politician who wants relevance, why would he say anything else? Wish list: vengeance on the few Republicans who voted for his impeachment; continued dominance of the Republican Party. The urgency surrounding Kamala Harris's position is tied to whether the president, who at 79 is the oldest person to hold the office, will run for re-election in 2024.Tom Brenner for The New York Times Heir apparent or an afterthought? The frustrations of Kamala Harris. By Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs WASHINGTON — The president needed the senator from West Virginia on his side, but he wasn't sure he needed his vice president to get him there. It was summertime, and President Biden was under immense pressure to win the support of Senator Joe Manchin III, whose decisive vote in a 50-50 chamber made him the president's most delicate negotiating partner. Biden had invited Manchin to the Oval Office to privately make the case for his marquee domestic policy legislation. Just before Manchin arrived, he turned to Vice President Kamala Harris. What he needed from her was not strategy or advice. He needed her to only say a quick hello, which she did before turning on her heel and leaving the room for another meeting. The moment, described as an exchange of "brief pleasantries" by a senior White House official and confirmed by two other people who were briefed on it, was a vivid reminder of the complexity of the job held by Harris: While most presidents promise their vice presidents access and influence, at the end of the day, power and responsibility are not shared equally, and Biden does not always feel a need for input from Harris as he navigates some of his most important relationships. But without a headlining role in some of the most critical decisions facing the White House, the vice president is caught between criticism that she is falling short and resentment among supporters who feel she is being undercut by the administration she serves. Read the full story. Subscribe Today We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer. RECOMMENDED READING Pete Marovich for The New York Times Trump Asks Supreme Court to Block Release of Jan. 6 Records The case is a constitutional clash on the scope of executive privilege and on whether a former president may invoke it when the current one has waived it. By Adam Liptak Jeenah Moon for The New York Times Fox News Host's Incendiary Fauci Comments Follow a Network Pattern Comments by Jesse Watters, a host of "The Five," were in keeping with previous derogatory remarks about Dr. Anthony Fauci by hosts and conservatives. By Michael M. Grynbaum Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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On Politics: Manchin in the middle

The senator fashions himself as an old-school dealmaker. Will he budge on President Biden's agenda?

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story December 21, 2021 By Reid J. Epstein Senator Joe Manchin has long enjoyed the national spotlight.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times For months, it has been one of the biggest questions in Washington: What does Senator Joe Manchin want? Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, fashions himself as an old-school centrist dealmaker, the sort of nearly extinct congressional species who hashes out deals over the bootleg moonshine he keeps stocked in unmarked Mason jars in his Senate office. Like nearly all other senators who first served as a governor, he often bemoans the fact that he's no longer a chief executive, with a security detail and the ability to make things happen on command. He created a former governors' caucus in the Senate for like-minded colleagues and has often said his best day as a senator was worse than his worst day as governor. Manchin, who was a quarterback at West Virginia University before injuries derailed his athletic career, enjoys the national spotlight and seeming nonstop attention from reporters, fellow senators and presidents too much to have sought a return to the Statehouse in Charleston. The combination of his desire to make deals, create action and remain the center of political attention culminated over the weekend when he shocked Democrats, the White House and journalists with his announcement — on "Fox News Sunday" — that he would not support President Biden's social policy agenda, a $2.2 trillion spending bill known as the Build Back Better Act that has served as the primary vehicle for his party's agenda for 2021 and 2022. Like his centrist Democratic colleague Kyrsten Sinema, who has also built a carefully crafted image as a senator who wants to get things done, Manchin finds himself at the center of competing priorities. He is the primary roadblock to the centerpiece of Biden's domestic agenda, but as the deciding vote in a 50-50 Senate he is also the central figure with the power to create action. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT As long as that's the case, an unending cascade of attention will follow from the White House, fellow congressional negotiators and reporters, who for weeks have trailed Manchin around the Capitol like a pack of hungry dogs. To figure out whether Manchin's "no" is really a "no," or, as is often the case in Washington, a "not yet," I called Jonathan Kott, who worked as Manchin's conduit to the news media from 2012 to 2019 and is now a lobbyist deciphering the senator's thoughts for corporate clients. "Joe Manchin is always up for discussing ways to get to 'yes' and how to make a bill better," Kott told me. "It's who he is. He's a governor at heart. It's how he negotiated with the State Legislature in West Virginia. I don't know what the status of this bill is, but I know that Joe Manchin is always open to negotiations in honest and straightforward ways." So what, I asked, does that mean for the status of the Build Back Better legislation? What would Manchin agree to? Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT "He has told everybody what he wants," Kott said. "Joe Manchin is pretty upfront and honest about what he wants, and he's been saying it for six months." Indeed, unlike Sinema, who went silent before taking a public victory lap after Biden signed the infrastructure bill last month, Manchin is a regular talker in the Senate hallways and a fixture on the Sunday talk shows. On Monday morning, he spent 15 minutes talking to Hoppy Kercheval, whose call-in radio show in West Virginia is perhaps the best gauge of the state's politics. There, Manchin lamented the very public pressure campaign to get him to agree to the social policy legislation and laid out in some detail why he remained opposed to it. He's concerned about the national debt and spending, the senator said, and wants benefits like the federal child tax credit targeted to the poor and the middle class, rather than to all Americans. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT (It is worth noting that proponents of the tax credit for all say inserting an income cap will mean that the benefit won't go to as many poor people as need it, and that work requirements would by their nature cut out millions of those in poverty who could otherwise be helped.) Manchin said that pressure campaigns hadn't worked on him, and that he wouldn't change his mind. "They figured, surely to God we can move one person, surely we can badger and beat one person up," he told Kercheval. "Surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable enough that they'll say, 'Well, I'll just vote for anything, just quit.' Well, guess what? I'm from West Virginia." So what's next? Both Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, and Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, offered a sunny outlook, saying that they didn't believe negotiations with Manchin were over. The White House, despite an extraordinary statement on Sunday that effectively called Manchin a liar, didn't pull the plug, either. "Senator Manchin and I are going to get something done," Biden said Tuesday. I asked Kott if there was any reason to believe that there could be a future for Build Back Better. His answer seemed to be one of education — both for Democrats trying to understand what Manchin wants and for Manchin himself, if he does hope to be the guy who can make a deal, and a big one at that. "I don't ever say anything is dead in Washington," Kott said. "But when he says, 'I can't go home and I can't explain this to West Virginia,' that's a serious line from him. He means that." The House committee investigating the events of Jan. 6 has issued a subpoena to Phil Waldron.Reuters A retired colonel's unlikely role in pushing baseless election claims By Alan Feuer A few days after President Biden's inauguration put to rest one of the most chaotic transitions in U.S. history, a former Army colonel with a background in information warfare appeared on a Christian conservative podcast and offered a detailed account of his monthslong effort to challenge the validity of the 2020 vote count. In a pleasant Texas drawl, the former officer, Phil Waldron, told the hosts a story that was almost inconceivable: how a cabal of bad actors, including Chinese Communist officials, international shell companies and the financier George Soros, had quietly conspired to hack into U.S. voting machines in a "globalist/socialist" plot to steal the election. In normal times, a tale like that — full of wild and baseless claims — might have been dismissed as the overheated rantings of a conspiracy theorist. But the postelection period was not normal, providing all sorts of fringe players an opportunity to find an audience in the White House. Waldron stands as a case study. Working in conjunction with allies of President Donald Trump like Rudolph Giuliani, Sidney Powell and Representative Louie Gohmert of Texas, a member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus — and in tandem with others like Michael Flynn, Mr. Trump's first national security adviser and a retired lieutenant general — Waldron managed to get a hearing for elements of his story in the very center of power in Washington. Read the full article. Subscribe Today We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer. RECOMMENDED READING Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times John Thune, a Likely Successor to Mitch McConnell, Weighs Retirement Mr. Thune, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, is considering giving up his South Dakota seat because of both family concerns and Donald Trump's enduring hold on the G.O.P. By Jonathan Martin What the Stalled Build Back Better Bill Means for Climate, in One Chart If the bill dies, it could prove extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the United States to meet its climate targets. By Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018