Beginning in mid-February, the On Politics newsletter will be available only to Times subscribers. |
 | | Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, is in a statistical dead heat in his re-election bid. He is polling better than Biden for job performance.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times |
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As for Republicans, one theme we're watching is the tug of war between Donald Trump and candidates who aren't bending to his will. |
And finally, it's never too early to think about the next presidential election. For many ambitious politicians, 2022 is just a speed bump on the road to 2024. |
There's a silver lining for Democrats |
We know you're tired of us repeating that Biden is a drag on Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. But we want to draw your attention to some recent polling that affirms that Biden is struggling, and also complicates the conventional wisdom: Georgia's Democratic senator up for re-election seems significantly more popular than Biden. |
Two separate polls released this week — one from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the other from Quinnipiac — found Biden's approval rating in the mid-30s. Given those numbers, it's not surprising that Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, isn't in the lead. What's noteworthy is that despite Biden's poor rating, Warnock isn't necessarily behind, either. |
In the Atlanta paper's poll, Warnock landed himself in a statistical tie — he was behind by a few points, but within the poll's margin of error — against Herschel Walker, the leading Republican candidate. Even though Biden's approval rating was just 34 percent in that poll, Warnock had consolidated 44 percent of the vote. What that suggests to us: A major share of Georgia voters disapproved of Biden's job performance but were still on board with Warnock. Likewise, in the Quinnipiac poll, while 59 percent disapproved of Biden's job performance, just 40 percent disapproved of Warnock's. |
The slightest improvement in Biden's approval rating could put Warnock on even ground with Walker, or even slightly ahead. If Democratic senators who are up for re-election can replicate that model in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire, the party just might be able to keep its majority intact. |
Trump can't get people to stop running |
Even if Trump's endorsement can help Republicans stand out in a primary, some candidates who haven't gotten his blessing aren't giving up. |
The latest example is Mark Walker, a former House lawmaker who is running for the Senate in North Carolina. Trump, who endorsed Representative Ted Budd in that state's primary, encouraged Walker to abandon his Senate bid and return to the House instead. Weeks after traveling to Florida to discuss his options with Trump, Walker announced at a rally on Thursday that he was staying in the Senate race. |
Months ago, Pat McCrory, a former governor of North Carolina, also made clear that he would not exit the Senate race just because Trump had endorsed his rival. "If supporters of President Trump want his agenda to be supported in the US Senate, they should not vote for Ted Budd," McCrory tweeted in June. |
It's a reminder that while Trump might be the most important person in the Republican Party, he doesn't have universal control. He can elevate candidates, but that doesn't mean that he alone can get them over the finish line. |
Take Representative Mo Brooks of Alabama, whose endorsement from Trump didn't stop Katie Britt from entering the Senate primary there, nor did it prevent retiring Senator Richard Shelby from promoting Britt, his former chief of staff. |
And there's Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, whose refusal to throw out his state's election results in 2020 earned him a top spot on Trump's enemies list. Trump persuaded another Republican, former Senator David Perdue, to challenge Kemp. And the Georgia polling indicates that Kemp still enjoys an edge in the primary. |
A number of Republican governors have been downright ornery in expressing their lack of interest in running for Senate seats this year: Larry Hogan in Maryland, Chris Sununu in New Hampshire, Doug Ducey in Arizona. |
Hogan said he had "no interest whatsoever" in the job. Sununu, who has been dismissive of Republican senators, said he didn't want to just be a "roadblock" in Washington. And Ducey has repeatedly said he's not running. |
The job none of them has ruled out? President of the United States of America. |
What caught our eye this week was a digital ad running in New Hampshire, ostensibly attacking Senator Maggie Hassan, the incumbent Democrat who is up for re-election in 2022. The ad, paid for by Senate Republicans, accuses Hassan of voting to "give stimulus checks to voters in jail." |
Glenn Kessler, the chief writer of The Fact Checker at The Washington Post, has examined that line of attack and notes that it's misleading, because "the previous stimulus bills passed last year under GOP control also did not bar payments to prisoners." Hassan, her campaign points out, has also written to the Treasury Department to clarify that state and local law enforcement could seize those checks and use them to compensate victims. |
But what's noteworthy to us is the appearance in the ad of Senator Rick Scott, the ambitious former Florida governor who chairs Senate Republicans' campaign arm. It's highly unusual for the head of a campaign committee to appear in attack ads — especially in New Hampshire, one of the early stops for aspiring presidential candidates. |
David Jolly, formerly a Republican member of the House from Florida who is now registered as an independent voter, said he wasn't surprised by the move. "Rick Scott is someone who is desperately seeking a lane to run for president, and he hasn't found it," Jolly told us. |
When we emailed Chris Hartline, a spokesman for Scott, asking whether the ad was unusual, he wrote back: "I don't know what's typical. And what's typical is not really a concern to me." |
- The congressional panel investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol subpoenaed a group of 14 people who falsely presented themselves as electors for Trump, Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer report.
- The White House cat, Willow, has finally arrived.
- Graham Bowley interviewed W. Kamau Bell, who said his new documentary, "We Need to Talk About Cosby," was really a story about "two runaway forces of oppression in America."
- In Ohio, two wildly different candidates clashed onstage at a debate that illuminated both would-be senators' hunger for attention, Trip Gabriel reports.
- Les Miserables: The percentage of Americans saying they are "not too happy" is at historic levels, new survey data shows.
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 | | Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia brought his bulldog, Babydog, to the podium to make a point during his State of the State address.Chris Dorst/Charleston Gazette-Mail, via Associated Press |
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Here's a dogged way to end a 125-minute speech. |
The governor sat his bulldog on the podium. After alluding to a tweet from Bette Midler — she had referred to West Virginia as "Poor, illiterate and strung out" — he lifted Babydog into his arms and showed her rear end to the audience in the House of Delegates and watching at home. |
"Babydog," he said, "tells Bette Midler and all of those out there — kiss her hiney." |
Thanks for reading. We'll see you on Monday. |
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