On Politics: Trump may run again. So might they. It’s getting awkward.

Republicans are treating him with deference as they wait to see if he makes his move.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story October 7, 2021 By Jeremy W. Peters Some of Iowa's top Republicans will join former President Donald J. Trump at a rally on Sunday.Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times With all the subtlety of a bullhorn, former President Donald J. Trump has been hinting that he plans to run for office again in 2024. And Republicans are so far treating him with the deference they displayed while he was in the White House as they wait to see if he makes his move. On Saturday afternoon, Trump heads to Iowa for a rally at the state fairgrounds, a perennial stop on the presidential campaign circuit. Joining him will be several of the state's top Republicans, including Gov. Kim Reynolds, Senator Charles E. Grassley and the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, Jeff Kaufmann — a testament to the former president's enduring dominance. Trump's unwillingness to cede the spotlight has cast doubt on the political futures of an entire group of Republican politicians who have suggested that they might someday want to run for president. And while they — like the rest of the country — can't be sure what the notoriously fickle former president might do, some of them are trying to stake their claims as leaders in the party. That requires a good deal of delicacy on their part. And it got a little awkward this week for two of them. First there was former Vice President Mike Pence, whose refusal to interfere with the counting of the electoral votes on Jan. 6 deeply angered Trump and helped precipitate the deadly assault on the Capitol that day. Pence gave an interview this week to Sean Hannity of Fox News and sounded at times an awful lot like someone who wants to be president. He attacked President Biden for withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan. He also criticized the president's approach to domestic affairs — for "lecturing the American people about vaccine mandates" and promoting what Pence called a "massive, big-government, socialist bill" before Congress that would widen the social safety net and address problems like climate change. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT But when Hannity broached the subject of Pence's reportedly frayed relationship with Trump, the former vice president tried to deflect by accusing the news media of blowing the events of Jan. 6 out of proportion, referring to it obliquely at one point as "one day in January." "They want to use that one day to try and demean the character and intentions of 74 million Americans who believe we could be strong again and prosperous again and supported our administration," Pence said. He did not address the fact that numerous rioters at the Capitol called for his execution during the attack, demanding that he be hanged for not carrying out Trump's wishes. And Hannity didn't bring it up. Then there was a speech by Nikki Haley, another former Trump administration official whose relationship with Trump was damaged because she had declared herself "disgusted" with him after Jan. 6 and predicted that he'd "lost any sort of political viability." Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT But Haley, who served as governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the United Nations, praised Trump in an appearance at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif. She criticized Trump's political opponents for accusing him of being compromised by the Russians, and said that Biden's posture toward Russia was weaker by comparison. Separately, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal this week, she lauded Trump's ability to "get strong people elected" and insisted, "I don't want us to go back to the days before Trump." At the moment, that doesn't seem like an option for Haley or anyone else who wants to have a bright future in the Republican Party. Trump continues to attack Republicans who broke with him after Jan. 6 and supported his impeachment, such as Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming. His first rally since the day of the Capitol riot was in June outside Cleveland. He endorsed a local Republican who was challenging Representative Anthony Gonzalez in next year's primary election. Gonzalez, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in inciting the riot, announced last month that he was leaving Congress rather than staying to face his Trump-approved challenger. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Polls taken over the course of the year have shown that Trump remains the overwhelming favorite for Republican voters, suggesting that he would be difficult to beat in a primary if he did indeed run. Though his popularity suffered somewhat in the immediate aftermath of Jan. 6, most Republicans seem to have moved on. A Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday found that two-thirds of Republicans say Trump should continue to be a major national figure, an increase of 10 percentage points from January. Forty-four percent of Republicans or Republican-leaning voters want him to run again. The Pew poll also found little tolerance for dissent. Asked whether their party should accept politicians who openly criticize Trump, 63 percent said no. Lauren Windsor in her studio with a papier-mâché version of former President Donald J. Trump that was made by an artist for the progressive group American Family Voices to use in protests.Melissa Lyttle for The New York Times Meet the liberal activist who targets Republicans with a MAGA masquerade. By Trip Gabriel Mike Pence told her, "I love your heart." Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio confided in her that Donald J. Trump would soon announce he was running again for president in 2024. Glenn Youngkin, the Republican nominee for governor of Virginia, revealed to her that he could not publicly press his anti-abortion agenda for fear of losing independent voters. All of them made these comments to Lauren Windsor, a liberal activist who has turned a hidden camera, a Tennessee drawl and a knack for disarming her targets with words of sympathetic conservatism into a loaded political weapon. Read the full article. Correction: Tuesday's newsletter misstated the size of Democrats' social policy bill in Congress. It is $3.5 trillion, not $3.5 billion. Subscribe Today We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer. RECOMMENDED READING Jason Andrew for The New York Times Jan. 6 Panel Issues More Subpoenas, Focusing on Rally Before Capitol Riot The committee is seeking information from two "Stop the Steal" organizers and a group affiliated with the event that preceded the mob violence. By Luke Broadwater Jim Lo Scalzo/European Pressphoto Agency, via Shutterstock Christian Conservative Lawyer Had Secretive Role in Bid to Block Election Result Drafts of a lawsuit filed with Supreme Court by Texas' attorney general in December had been circulated by the leader of an anti-abortion group. By Eric Lipton and Mark Walker Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

On Politics: The cocooning of Kyrsten Sinema

The Arizona senator has undergone a political metamorphosis.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story October 5, 2021 By Reid J. Epstein Kyrsten Sinema is at the center of Democratic infighting over President Biden's social policy agenda.Sarahbeth Maney/The New York Times In February 2018, I went to Arizona to report on what progressive Democrats there thought about Kyrsten Sinema, the centrist whose Senate vote is key in the fight over President Biden's agenda and political prospects. At the time, Sinema, then a three-term congresswoman, was the leading Democrat for the state's Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Flake, a Republican. She was handpicked by Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, for her fund-raising acumen and a carefully curated moderate image that was believed to play well in Arizona, which hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in 30 years. Before flying to Phoenix, I asked Sinema's aides whether she would be doing any campaigning or whether I could come see her — it was a week of congressional recess when members of Congress tend to spend time in their districts. After obfuscating about her whereabouts, Sinema's team finally told me to meet her at a bookstore in Phoenix for what was described as a round-table discussion with local businesswomen. When I got there, I encountered a highly unusual scene for a major campaign. There was nobody else at the event, just the seven businesswomen, Sinema and her highly attentive staff (one aide unwrapped a straw before carefully placing it in Sinema's can of La Croix), me and a small CNN crew. She spent the 38-minute discussion — seemingly conducted purely for the benefit of The Wall Street Journal, where I worked at the time, and CNN — taking every opportunity to praise President Donald J. Trump and her meetings with him. When she was asked about child care, she said Trump's daughter Ivanka Trump was working on it. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT In our subsequent 13-minute interview, Sinema couldn't name any topics in which she disagreed with Trump. When I asked what her younger self, who worked for Ralph Nader's presidential campaign, would think of her in 2018, she said she would be "proud of the growth." And she wouldn't say whether she had given up on her former, more liberal beliefs, but she stressed that she had prioritized results over rhetoric. "What I've learned to do is use the tools and skills that I've learned to be productive and get stuff done," she told me. "Getting stuff done is amazing. It's amazing when you can say, 'I've delivered real results.'" What is perhaps most notable about that interview is that she did it at all. Sinema rarely granted requests for sit-down interviews with national reporters during the rest of her 2018 campaign. Since coming to Washington, she has been one of the most elusive senators on Capitol Hill. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT She doesn't engage with Washington reporters in a serious way, doesn't hold open-to-the-public events in Arizona and has effectively cut off communication with the local progressive groups that worked to get her elected in 2018. Her spokesman did not respond when I emailed him. Ian Danley, the executive director of Arizona Wins, a coalition of 32 progressive advocacy organizations, said his group had registered nearly 200,000 new voters and knocked on more than two million doors in support of Sinema's 2018 campaign. She has not once met with his group or its partners since taking office in 2019, he said. That, Danley said, prompted the frustration that led to the viral ambushing of Sinema over the weekend in a bathroom at Arizona State University, where she teaches classes on social work and fund-raising. Activists from Living United for Change in Arizona, one of the groups in the Arizona Wins coalition, pressed Sinema to support the $3.5 billion Democratic legislation that would expand the social safety net. "What's she supposed to do, she asked for a meeting — they tried to go meet with the staff and the senator, that doesn't happen," Danley said. "That's a breakdown of constituent services, a breakdown of leadership — that's not the fault of young people who are trying to lobby and influence their elected officials." Sinema, in a blistering statement, called the bathroom episode "not legitimate protest." Another activist tried without success to engage Sinema on her flight to Washington from Phoenix on Monday and there was another group waiting for her at Reagan National Airport. There, she pantomimed listening to something on her iPhone, which was odd because during the flight she had her AirPods in. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT What happens next with Sinema is anyone's guess. Unlike Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, her fellow Democratic holdout on Biden's legislation, Sinema hasn't publicly articulated what she wants from the negotiations, a development that got her skewered on the latest episode of "Saturday Night Live." Perhaps the thing to know about Sinema is how she views her own political metamorphosis. After beginning her career so far on the liberal end of politics that she refused to take campaign contributions ("that's bribery," she said while running for the Phoenix City Council in 2001) and wrote letters to the Arizona Republic condemning the very idea of capitalism, Sinema has gone to great lengths to define herself as the opposite of what she was before. "When I was young, I was passionate and excited and energized and wanted to help people in my community and change the world," she told me in the 2018 interview. "What I've figured out is when you're willing to work with people, even those with whom you sometimes disagree, when you work with people who are different from yourself, you can find common areas of agreement and achieve good things." Sinema has finally swung so far around that the people she used to disagree with are now her allies. Her old allies, who now disagree with her, no longer have any hope she'll work with them. Half of Michigan's voting population lives in the type of midsize and small manufacturing communities that the report focused on.Spencer Platt/Getty Images Democrats lost the most in Midwestern 'factory towns,' a new report said. By Jonathan Martin The share of the Democratic presidential vote in the Midwest declined most precipitously between 2012 and 2020 in counties that experienced the steepest losses in manufacturing and union jobs and saw declines in health care, according to a new report to be released this month. The party's worsening performance in the region's midsize communities — often overlooked places like Chippewa Falls, Wis., and Bay City, Mich. — poses a dire threat to Democrats, the report warns. "We cannot elect Democrats up and down the ballot, let alone protect our governing majorities, if we don't address those losses," wrote Richard J. Martin, an Iowa-based market researcher and Democratic campaign veteran, in the report titled "Factory Towns." Read the full article. Subscribe Today We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer. RECOMMENDED READING Doug Mills/The New York Times Biden Scales Back His Agenda in Hopes of Bringing Moderates Onboard The president has conceded that his $3.5 trillion collection of spending programs and tax cuts will need to shrink to about $2 trillion or less. By Jim Tankersley and Emily Cochrane Sarahbeth Maney/The New York Times Kyrsten Sinema Is at the Center of It All. Some Arizonans Wish She Weren't. The centrist senator is key to President Biden's agenda in Washington. Her positions have angered some Democrats back home. By Jack Healy and Emily Cochrane Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018