Monday, May 09, 2022

On Politics: Two deep-red states hold primaries


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Charles Herbster, a Republican candidate for governor of Nebraska, speaking with voters last week in Wahoo, a city west of Omaha.Walker Pickering for The New York Times

How to win a red-state primary

By Leah Askarinam

Co-Author, On Politics

Two states are holding primary elections on Tuesday. In one, Joe Biden couldn't crack 40 percent of the vote in 2020; in the other, he couldn't even get to 30 percent.

You guessed it: Most of the action is on the Republican side.

In West Virginia, two Republican incumbents are battling for a newly drawn congressional district. In Nebraska, the Republican primary for governor has become a dead heat among three candidates.

Across the aisle in Nebraska, Democrats are preparing to take another crack at an Omaha-based House seat — one with particular national relevance, considering it's the one congressional district in the state that gave Joe Biden an Electoral College vote in 2020.

Here's what we're watching.

Trump's endorsement battles with sitting G.O.P. governors

Because Nebraska and West Virginia are so deeply Republican, the winners of Tuesday's Republican primaries will be heavily favored to win in the November general election. The results will probably decide whether acolytes of Donald Trump will be elected to Congress and state executive offices.

"That's why all the attention is on the primary," said Sam Fischer, a Republican strategist in Nebraska.

Trump notched a victory in Ohio last week when J.D. Vance surged to the top of a crowded Republican primary after being endorsed by the former president. On Tuesday, the power of a Trump endorsement will be put to the test again.

But in Nebraska and West Virginia, two of the candidates who lack support from Trump have a different asset: an endorsement from the state's current governor.

Unlike in Ohio, where Gov. Mike DeWine declined to endorse a Senate candidate as he faced a primary challenge of his own, the Republican governors of Nebraska and West Virginia appear to have had few qualms about endorsing candidates overlooked by Trump. In fact, both leaders — Gov. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia — have publicly criticized Trump's endorsement decisions in their respective states.

In Nebraska, Trump backed Charles Herbster, a wealthy owner of an agriculture company. Ricketts, the departing governor, is term-limited, and has not only thrown his support behind a different candidate — Jim Pillen, a University of Nebraska regent — but also publicly disparaged Herbster.

In West Virginia, Governor Justice threw his support to Representative David McKinley in the state's House race after Trump had endorsed Representative Alex Mooney. Justice recently said he thought Trump had made a mistake.

Which is more important in G.O.P. races: The messenger or the message?

In both West Virginia and Nebraska, the candidates endorsed by the governor have …

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