Friday, July 17, 2020

On Politics: Americans Stick by Fauci

Many Republicans have turned against Dr. Fauci, but over all, most of the country trusts him.
Welcome to Poll Watch, our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election.

The Trump administration is engaged in a not-so-quiet whisper campaign to cast doubt on Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, and other public health officials.

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President Trump’s team has increasingly questioned Dr. Fauci’s track record, and this week the White House moved to strip the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of control over collection of data on the coronavirus’s spread.

All of this lines up with Mr. Trump’s attempts to speed up the reopening process, often in spite of his health advisers’ warnings. Presumably, Mr. Trump is playing the long game, hoping that a return to normal will bring the economy booming back in time for the November election and that the virus could either “fade away” or become preventable by a vaccine.

But none of those things have happened so far, and when it comes to public opinion, the president appears to have boxed himself into a corner.

After tapering down throughout most of the spring, cases have been rising steadily for the past month, giving pollsters enough time to take a read on how Americans have responded to the virus’s resurgence.

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Most people continue to prefer a cautious reopening, and they increasingly disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the pandemic. When it comes to the health experts he’s been vilifying, people’s faith has hardly been shaken.

Voters over all (but no longer Republicans) have faith in Fauci.

As Mr. Trump and his allies in the conservative media have sown doubt about Dr. Fauci, many Republicans have in fact turned against the doctor. Back in May, a CNN poll found that by a two-to-one margin, Republicans said they trusted the information Dr. Fauci was providing. But on Wednesday, Quinnipiac University released a poll showing that 52 percent of Republicans now said they did not trust Dr. Fauci on the pandemic. Just 39 percent said they did.

Yet among Democrats and independents, trust in Dr. Fauci had risen, if anything. Eighty-six percent of Democrats and two-thirds of independents told Quinnipiac researchers that they had faith in the information Dr. Fauci provided. Over all, 65 percent of the country continued to say it had faith in Dr. Fauci, according to the poll.

Strikingly, the poll found that Dr. Fauci had the trust of a majority even in some of Mr. Trump’s core demographics: white Americans without college degrees (59 percent), people living in rural areas (55 percent) and white men (61 percent).

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The president, meanwhile, was in bad shape here: In each of those groups, fewer than half of respondents said they trusted him to provide information about the virus. It is more evidence that even while Mr. Trump continues to exert command over the Republican Party faithful, his handling of the virus may be driving down support for him — and possibly for the party — among certain must-win demographics.

This has also put down-ballot Republicans in a bind. Caught between Mr. Trump’s calls to reopen and the public’s overwhelming desire to exercise caution, relatively few congressional Republicans who are looking at competitive elections in November have placed the virus at the center of their campaigns. Yet most voters call the pandemic an issue of critical importance to their candidate choice.

Trump’s numbers are down even with core groups.

Even for self-identified Republicans — who continue to express overwhelming approval of Mr. Trump’s performance — confidence in his handling of the pandemic has been shaken. His approval rating specifically on the virus dipped below 80 percent among Republicans in both the Quinnipiac poll and an ABC News/Ipsos poll last week.

Just 51 percent of white voters without a college degree told Quinnipiac interviewers that they approved of his job performance over all, down from 60 percent a month ago. Among white evangelicals, approval of Mr. Trump’s job performance had dropped to 70 percent, a 10-percentage-point drop from a May Quinnipiac poll.

By a 14-point margin, voters said in a CNBC poll last month that they thought Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, would do a better job handling the pandemic than Mr. Trump.

Americans are hesitant to reopen schools — and supportive of masks.

With coronavirus cases climbing in most states, Mr. Trump has not articulated a clear national framework for confronting the disease. Virus and antibody tests — which he often calls central to the administration’s strategy — have recently begun to take weeks to produce results in many cases. Even as he presses for schools to reopen, he has declined to issue a national plan for how to do so safely.

On Thursday, the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, said “science should not stand in the way of” allowing schools to reopen.

But in a poll conducted at the end of last month, Ipsos found that 71 percent of American parents thought it would be risky to send their children back to school. And most parents said that if their state experienced a second wave of the virus in the fall, they would probably keep their children at home.

On the broader question of reopening, the majority of the country remains firmly against Mr. Trump’s aggressive push. Roughly three in five respondents to the ABC/Ipsos poll last week said the country was reopening too quickly; just 15 percent said it was moving too slowly.

A number of states have ordered residents to wear masks in public — including Arkansas and Colorado, which announced mask-wearing mandates on Thursday. Mr. Trump has made his ambivalence about masks well known, but this week’s Quinnipiac poll found that 71 percent of Americans would support a national mandate.

Seventy-three percent said that Mr. Trump himself ought to wear a mask when he’s in public.

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Thursday, July 16, 2020

On Politics: Turning In Your Homework

We asked you about reopening schools. Parents, teachers and students shared fears and frustrations.
Author Headshot

By Lisa Lerer

Politics Newsletter Writer

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

Here’s an update from me at this hour: Democratic officials are instructing members of Congress and party delegates to skip attending their national convention this summer. Read more.

If you have a child, know a child or have ever met a child, then you’ve probably been following the debate over reopening schools.

You probably also know that the discussion has been more than a bit heated. Emotions are running high. For many parents, there’s fear and anxiety and frustration. (“OH MY GOD DISNEY IS OPEN AND SCHOOLS ARE NOT,” Emily Oster, an economics professor at Brown University who has been studying the topic, tweeted this week.)

For many teachers, there’s fear and anxiety and frustration, too. (Several members of the United Educators Association of Texas have asked “if the attorneys that we employ for our association could help write wills,” said Steven Poole, the executive director.)

But the battle lines are far from unanimously drawn. This is a debate that hits at some of the biggest issues in American life: economics, education, the role of government and, yes, race. The White House fanned the controversy today when Kayleigh McEnany, the press secretary, said that “the science should not stand in the way” of reopening schools.

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We asked for your thoughts. As your many, many emails showed this week, there is a wide spectrum of views about what schools should do, plenty of pleading for more resources and enough parental anxiety to fuel centuries of therapy sessions.

The only constant? A sense that there’s a total lack of federal government leadership on the issue. Whether teacher or student, parent or principal, nearly all of you feel as if you are making life-or-death decisions with very little guidance from the leaders at the top.

Here’s some of what you told us. (Emails have been edited and condensed.)

Seeing the demands school districts are putting on teachers is heartbreaking and unjust. Class sizes are not reduced, but teachers are expected to keep students socially distant. Students are not required to wear masks, but will spend most of their day inside a single classroom. There is, of course, no hazard pay. So we add to the load of already overworked and underpaid teachers.

— Amanda Deal, a retired teacher in Winston-Salem, N.C.

My personal worries about online school are relatively minor: I have Wi-Fi and a functioning computer, but I find it to be very unpleasant to sit in front of a laptop all day. Interesting classroom discussions are lost and it is hard to concentrate and be productive. But for the hundreds of kids in our district with disabilities, families with siblings and not enough electronics to go around, and any unmotivated students, the prospect of online school seems like it will create a lot of problems.

— Rosa Fabian, a high school sophomore in Larimer County, Colo.

My days are typically spent in clients’ homes and offices — eclipsing the entire school day. That leaves my wife having to figure out how to teach her 180 high school students from home (let’s not forget grading time, planning time, and meeting time), while simultaneously helping our own kids with their schoolwork. Any parent who is working from home with school-age children can tell you how impossible it is, but there’s no imagination big enough that can begin to grasp the truly impossible nature of being employed from home as a public teacher with school-age children.

— Shane Oakes, a self-employed handyman in Laguna Hills, Calif.

Yes, children seem to have milder symptoms, but they still do get sick. Some still die. And no one knows what the long-term effects of the virus are going to be for these children five or 10 years down the road. I am not willing to take that chance with my children. It is my No. 1 responsibility as a parent to ensure my children’s safety. Sending them back to in-person school without having confidence in the government response to this pandemic does not meet my criteria of that responsibility.

— Kristin Vosburgh, a health care worker and mother of two young children in Englewood, Fla.

Going back to school at the start of my third trimester does make me nervous, but doesn’t deter me. I feel vulnerable, but here’s how I see it: Front-line workers, from doctors to grocery store cashiers to auto repair folks, have been working direct service jobs this entire time. Teachers are front-line workers. We are so used to kids getting us teachers sick that we are more hesitant than we may need to be in this case. But kids have lost socializing and learning opportunities and, in too many cases, they’ve lost the safe space that is school when their houses do not provide that.

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— Rachel VanScoy, a high school science teacher in Colorado Springs who is expecting her first child this fall

For my 5- and 6-year-olds, kindergarten is a time when they learn how to “do school.” They learn how to listen, take turns, share toys, play together and learn together in a group. They learn how to learn and they begin to understand how their actions affect others. Unfortunately, those aren’t things they can learn online or from a workbook.

— Holly Kanz, a kindergarten teacher in Portland, Ore.

I am a single mother of a first-grade child with Down syndrome. I am extremely concerned with the opening of schools in my area. We only locked down for three weeks with limited closings. The school opened for summer school in June but I refused to send my daughter. When August comes, I will be forced to choose between my child’s health and our survival.

— Melissa Wakefield, a humanities teacher in Springfield, Mo.

I am afraid to send my child to school in fall. I’m afraid of the cognitive and emotional consequences of not sending my child to school in the fall. I am seriously concerned with how I will be able to maintain employment and continue to provide for my child if I also need to provide intensive at-home learning. Kids with special needs, and the families that care for them, already slip through the cracks in the system.

— Lorissa Hughes, a mother of a special-needs child in Eugene, Ore.

Seeing that I am a science teacher, not a math teacher, I have a challenge for you. My classroom is 30 feet wide by 24 feet deep. Drop one student into that room and social distance six feet on all sides. How many students can you fit in that room? When it comes to protecting our kids and our communities, is there anyone willing to speak the truth about how opening schools with no realistic plans to protect kids and adults is just a recipe for more infection?

— Sergio Diana, a high school science teacher in Colonie, N.Y.

I am a rising high school senior who commutes on public transit to school in Philadelphia. I am also immunosuppressed and thus at increased risk. I am worried for the next school year that both the city and state governments won’t take students’ needs into account. How can I know that the subway pole I am holding onto is safe? Once I arrive at school, will the other students take this seriously?

— Joe Massaua, a high school senior in Villanova, Pa.

I am leaning toward staying home this fall. I am uncertain if the experience I would have at school would be worth going through the complications of traveling. Returning to campus means going through two sets of 14-day quarantine. After 28 days of isolation, if all I could do on campus would be studying for my classes, it looks like studying at home could achieve the same effect.

— Alice Liu, an international college student from Beijing

I’m concerned for my own health. As a bus driver, we’re the first ones to see the students. In normal times, many of the kids are sent to school with runny noses and stomachaches because the parents have to go to work. It will be a challenge for all of us.

— Mike Pal, a school bus driver outside Chicago

I must admit, I’m exhausted. This balancing act is getting old, my nerves are often frayed, and I’m worried every day that someone in the household will get sick. I understand that my children are extremely low risk for contracting a severe form of Covid-19. But how can I consider sending my children back to school when it means risking Covid-19 for us all? My parents have many pre-existing conditions including diabetes and kidney disease. My mother is especially prone to viral lung conditions.
I worry for my children’s well-being, too. My son misses having playmates. My daughter is still young enough that she doesn’t seem bothered, but I see how her education is lagging. She’s not where her brother was at her age because I had to pull her out of preschool. So now I have the daunting task of learning how to be a teacher this fall while also running my business, taking care of the house, feeding everyone, and caring for anyone who gets sick.

— Xochi Kao, a self-employed mother in Sacramento

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From Opinion: Hope

Hello, America: Have you read the news? It’s bad. Some days it feels as though it wouldn’t be an overstatement to assert that everything is terrible. Our political institutions are unanchored and untrusted. Roiled by arguments over racism, cancel culture and the legacy of past statesmen, our national community often doesn’t feel like much of one at all — at least online. And all the while an outbreak has been re-emerging and surging, the deadly virus tenuously fading in parts of the country just as it starts coursing through other regions.

The longtime Opinion columnist Nicholas Kristof discussed all of this unpleasantness with experts in science, health, economics and more. Then, he wrote a piece for The Sunday Review that published online today with a warm message: hope.

“Yes, our nation is a mess,” he wrote. “But overlapping catastrophes have also created conditions that may finally let us extricate ourselves from the mire. The grim awareness of national failures — on the coronavirus, racism, health care and jobs — may be a necessary prelude to fixing our country.”

He went on: “The last time our economy was this troubled, Herbert Hoover’s failures led to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election with a mandate to revitalize the nation. The result was the New Deal, Social Security, rural electrification, government jobs programs and a 35-year burst of inclusive growth that built the modern middle class and arguably made the United States the richest and most powerful country in the history of the world.”

I am a short-term pessimist. But after reading Nick’s piece, I found myself turning into a long-term optimist. Perhaps you will, too.

— Talmon Joseph Smith

… Seriously

The (now former) Trump campaign manager offered some thoughts today, after being abruptly replaced on Wednesday night.

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