The Latest Polls, the Great Non-Tightening: This Week in the 2020 Race

A wave of data this week suggested that the race was largely holding steady after the parties’ conventions. Will the uproar over President Trump’s reported remarks on the military shake things up?

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story September 5, 2020 Joseph R. Biden Jr. spoke with journalists before boarding a plane in Milwaukee after a day filled with campaign stops in Wisconsin.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times By Astead W. Herndon and Annie Karni Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign. The week in numbers A batch of national polls released in the wake of the Democratic and Republican conventions showed Joe Biden leading President Trump by anywhere from seven to 10 percentage points. A variety of swing-state polls also out this week broadly showed Mr. Biden retaining his advantage, though not always by much. Fox News polls showed Mr. Biden with a nine-point lead in Arizona, an eight-point margin in Wisconsin and a narrower four-point edge in North Carolina. Monmouth University surveys showed North Carolina even closer, with Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump separated by just two points, and Mr. Biden up by four points in Pennsylvania. (Both of those differences were within the polls’ margins of error.) Mr. Biden announced raising $364.5 million in August with the Democratic Party, shattering past monthly fund-raising records. Mr. Trump’s campaign has not disclosed its August haul. The Biden campaign also said it was spending $45 million on digital and television ads this week, by far its biggest outlay of the campaign to date, including its first ad to respond to Mr. Trump’s attack over law and order. Catch me up If there was any week where President Trump’s campaign might have expected an increase in polling, it was this one. Mr. Trump and Republicans were coming out of their nominating convention, a four-day event that cast re-electing the president as a moral emergency. And after a police shooting in Kenosha, Wis., led to a wave of unrest, Mr. Trump sought to seize on the chaos to promote his “law and order” message and energize his conservative base. And yet, in a week of polling that provided the clearest electoral picture since the conventions, the evidence pointed to a steady race. The great electoral tightening, feared by Democrats and anticipated by Republicans, has yet to manifest: Mr. Trump didn’t manage to pull even with Mr. Biden in any swing-state poll. And in a Fox News poll of Wisconsin, it was Mr. Biden — not Mr. Trump — who had an edge in the question about trustworthiness regarding policing and criminal justice. A potential risk to Trump’s military support President Trump on Friday in the Oval Office, where he said that a report in The Atlantic was “fake.”Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times The White House and the Biden campaign reacted with unusual velocity on Thursday night after The Atlantic published an article, citing four unnamed sources, that said Mr. Trump had referred to American soldiers killed in combat during World War I as “losers” and “suckers.” Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, visited reporters traveling aboard Air Force One to Pennsylvania to assure them that the story was false. Upon landing, a visibly angry Mr. Trump marched over to the reporters and denied the story himself, excoriating the writer and sources as “lowlifes” and “liars.” Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT The Biden campaign immediately organized a call with Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois and Representative Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania, both veterans, and Khizr Khan, the Gold Star father who spoke at the Democratic National Convention in 2016, to denounce the president’s comments. On Friday, Mr. Biden called the report “disgusting,” while Mr. Trump repeated his assertion that it was “fake.” The swift responses from both sides show how both campaigns thought the story could jeopardize Mr. Trump’s support from the military just two months before an election. Will it? It helps Mr. Trump that the sources chose to remain anonymous. That has left Mr. Biden having to address the story with a caveat, “If these statements are true,” and allows Mr. Trump to cast doubt on a report that some former officials said they believed because it was in line with his general view of military service. Nothing sticks. On the campaign trail four years ago, Mr. Trump horrified many fellow Republicans when he insulted Senator John McCain, the former prisoner of war, by saying, “I like people who weren’t captured.” In the grand scheme, the comment hurt him not at all, and seems positively tame compared with what has come since then. But Mr. Trump is already struggling with military support — and the entire election will be a game at the margins. Polling suggests Mr. Trump’s popularity has slipped among active-duty troops. If Republicans have been impressed with the president’s recent law-and-order message, his purported private disgust for the military threatens to undermine the message that Mr. Trump stands with American men and women in uniform. Biden eases back onto the trail: Here’s what to expect Awaiting Mr. Biden’s arrival outside Grace Lutheran Church in Kenosha, Wis., on Thursday.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times After months of trying to project caution about coronavirus safety measures, Mr. Biden and some of his surrogates are (cautiously) hitting the road again. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT It started this week in Kenosha, Wis., where Mr. Biden held a listening session that brought together police officers, racial justice activists, civic leaders and business owners in a conversation about healing and racial equity. Timing his trip just days after Mr. Trump visited Kenosha and focused on vandalism and looting, it was clear that Mr. Biden wanted to project what he thought a presidential visit should look like. The visit had the side benefit of neutralizing an infamous argument about Wisconsin from 2016, when the Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, did not visit the state during the general election campaign and lost there by fewer than 23,000 votes. In the days since Mr. Biden’s visit to Kenosha, his campaign has announced new events in Delaware, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Based on conversations with Democratic advisers, and the campaign’s recent virtual events, here’s what to expect: A focus on the pandemic, and Mr. Trump’s failures. The Biden campaign believes the pandemic response has all the hallmarks of the ways that Americans are dissatisfied with Mr. Trump’s administration, and is a singular issue that has affected every American’s life. Although Mr. Trump’s convention framed his record as one that stopped the health crisis from being worse, Mr. Biden will highlight the ways the incumbent has ignored experts and public health advice. One example: an upcoming trip to Minnesota by Jill Biden, who is embarking on a national “Back-to-School Tour” as the country grapples with reopening procedures. A catchall strategy on racial equity and protests. First, the Biden campaign debuted a digital advertisement embracing law and order and condemning rioting and looting in cities. Then, the campaign started running an advertisement titled “We’re Listening,” in which Mr. Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California, express sympathy for protesters and outline steps for police reform. Though the ideas are not in conflict, they are indicative of Mr. Biden’s catchall approach when it comes to the current moment of racial unrest in the country. Integrating new reporting on Mr. Trump and veterans. Few reports break through the fire hose of political noise, but the Atlantic report captured both campaigns’ attention this week. There are signs that Mr. Biden’s campaign will further integrate the controversy into its messaging, including a web video it posted on Friday. And Vote Vets, a liberal group of veterans that has endorsed Mr. Biden, has already made an advertisement about the issue. Trump encourages supporters to vote twice. Will they take him literally? Framing his suggestion as a way to stress-test the security of election systems, Mr. Trump this week said voters in North Carolina should try to vote twice, once by mail and once in person, to make sure their choice was counted. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Intentionally voting twice is illegal — an offense that can send you to jail in some states — and the comments served as the president’s latest attempt to cast doubt on the integrity of the November election and set the stage to claim the election was somehow rigged, if he loses. Mr. Trump makes so many outlandish and vaguely worded statements that it makes it easy for his defenders to wave some of them away when he is criticized. White House officials said Mr. Trump was only encouraging his supporters to verify that their mail-in ballots had been counted, and denied that he was encouraging people to vote twice. What’s not clear yet is whether North Carolina voters took him seriously and literally, and whether they will try to break the law as the state begins its vote-by-mail process. The North Carolina State Board of Elections issued a statement reminding people that voting twice is illegal — the latest reminder that living in America under the Trump administration is a daily civics lesson. What you might have missed Voting in Chelsea, Mass., during the primary on Tuesday.David Degner for The New York Times Voting in Massachusetts went smoothly on Tuesday, with more than 1.6 million ballots cast and a Democratic Senate primary winner called around 10:30 p.m. An emphasis on mail-in voting, a decline in coronavirus infection rates and a less heated partisan atmosphere helped. Still, the state’s harsh mailing deadlines may have disenfranchised some voters. Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, repeated a false claim that Covid-19 death statistics were being inflated. Her Democratic opponent, Theresa Greenfield, accused her of “peddling dangerous conspiracy theories.” A new campaign called #HealTheVote aims to turn out 100,000 crime survivors for the coming election. Many survivors have said that voting is a way not only to influence policy, but also to combat the sense of powerlessness and violation they felt after being attacked. Shane Goldmacher, Giovanni Russonello and Mariel Wamsley contributed reporting. Thanks for reading. On Politics is your guide to the political news cycle, delivering clarity from the chaos. Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics With Lisa Lerer from The New York Times. 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On Politics Poll Watch: Pollsters’ Latest Challenge

Which candidate's messaging on the unrest is more effective?

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story September 4, 2020 By Giovanni Russonello Welcome to Poll Watch, our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election. The trips this week to Kenosha, Wis., by President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. laid bare the political bets both presidential candidates are making about how voters will respond to the scenes of unrest playing out in some American cities. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Mr. Trump has focused on his support for law enforcement while criticizing rioters as “anti-American,” hoping to stir fear among swing voters about unruly demonstrations. Mr. Biden, for his part, has hit back hard, insisting that right-wing vigilantes are also a big part of the problem — and that systemic racism must be rooted out of law enforcement to help heal the country. At the same time, he has sought to turn attention back to the coronavirus pandemic, saying the president has failed to address both crises. The question on most political observers’ minds is simple, but impossible to answer in a simple way: Which narrative will win? For pollsters, who use straightforward questions to take a read on the national mood, this moment presents a challenge. How can they ask questions that drive to the heart of the debate, when neither side can even agree on its terms? Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT In recent weeks the standard wordings have felt insufficient, and polling firms have adjusted the questions they’re asking. They’re seeking to determine which candidate’s approach resonates more — not only whether voters are truly worried that the flare-ups of urban violence will reach their homes, but also whom they blame for them and how they think they should be quelled. “What we want is good measurement, and if past measurements are out of whack with the current situation, then we have to revise them and try to test other approaches,” said Gary Langer, whose polling firm conducts research on behalf of ABC News, The Washington Post and other news outlets. Take “race relations,” for instance. He said that “may be a term or a phrase that has durability in some circumstances, but is not particularly apt in current circumstances.” In polls released on Thursday by Quinnipiac University from the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Florida, researchers asked voters who they thought would do a better job guiding the country through a crisis — language that intentionally wasn’t specific to the pandemic or the protests. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT In both cases, voters were slightly more likely to choose Mr. Trump than they were when asked about the coronavirus crisis specifically. (Since the start of the summer, he has consistently earned low marks on the pandemic.) In Pennsylvania, a slim majority still preferred Mr. Biden to command the country during a crisis, but in Florida, it was about an even split: 49 percent Mr. Biden, 47 percent Mr. Trump. This partly helps explain why Mr. Trump has sought so hard to replace conversations about racial justice and the coronavirus with a focus on what he has called “mob violence.” In Pennsylvania, just 31 percent of independent voters said they preferred Mr. Trump on handling racial inequality — but that ticked up to 40 percent when asked who would better handle a crisis. Still, the fact that most independents did not choose Mr. Trump even on this question underscores his difficulties with this crucial group, which narrowly broke for him in 2016, according to exit polls, but now consistently expresses misgivings about re-electing him. The president’s attempts to highlight the clashes in cities have clearly had an impact: In its polls of Pennsylvania and Florida, Quinnipiac gave voters a choice of eight top issues and asked them to identify their No. 1 concern. In Pennsylvania, where Mr. Biden led by eight percentage points among likely voters, “law and order” was roughly tied for second place, along with race relations and the coronavirus. Only the economy was cited more often. In Florida, nearly one in five voters cited law and order as the main concern — again, second only to the economy. In both cases, conservatives — following Mr. Trump’s lead — were far more likely than others to name law and order as their biggest concern, but 12 to 15 percent of moderates chose it too. An ABC News/Washington Post poll of the country conducted just before the party conventions asked voters whether they thought they would be safer or less safe from crime under a Biden administration. The most popular answer, chosen by four in 10, was that things would probably be about the same either way. But among those who picked a side, there was a seven-percentage-point tilt toward those who thought they would be less safe under Mr. Biden, not Mr. Trump. White suburbanites — a group being targeted by both campaigns — were 20 points more likely to say Mr. Biden would make them less safe than to say Mr. Trump would. Still, it’s not clear that most voters see the protests as a dire threat, as Mr. Trump is encouraging them to do. According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of the nation released this week, Americans said by a 21-point margin that even though some protests had resulted in violence, peaceful demonstrations should not stop. That poll was conducted before news emerged that a Black man had died in Rochester, N.Y., in March after police officers placed a mesh hood over his head, adding fresh fuel to the fire of protesters’ frustration. Fox News released three polls on Wednesday from battleground states: Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Those polls asked voters whom they trusted more to handle criminal justice and policing, a more specific query than “race relations” but perhaps not as threatening as “crime.” In Arizona and Wisconsin, voters leaned toward Mr. Biden by five points, but in North Carolina they were basically split even. In all three states, the preference for Mr. Biden on policing and criminal justice lagged slightly behind his advantage over Mr. Trump in the horse race. And it was significantly less than his usual lead when people were asked whom they trusted more to handle race relations. Although the economy is still the most often-cited concern for voters in many battlegrounds, it’s not guaranteed that Mr. Biden would altogether benefit from pushing the debate onto economic matters. Polls continue to show that he has failed to reverse voters’ slight preference for Mr. Trump as a steward of the economy. But on the coronavirus, Mr. Biden clearly has the advantage. Multiple national polls this week showed Mr. Biden with a double-digit lead on whom Americans preferred to handle the pandemic; independents chose Mr. Biden by roughly 20 points. RECOMMENDED READING Lauren Justice for The New York Times   ‘Voting Is My Healing’: Inside a Push to Turn Out 100,000 Crime Survivors For all that narratives about crime shape American politics, survivors are rarely at the center of in the conversation, if they are heard at all. A campaign called #HealTheVote is trying to change that. By Maggie Astor Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics With Lisa Lerer from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018