Saturday, October 03, 2020

In Her Words: Dropping Out

Hundreds of thousands of women are leaving the workforce.
Some women are opting out of the workforce as the multiple burdens between work and home become too great to bear.Brittany Hosea-Small/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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By Alisha Haridasani Gupta

Gender Reporter

“The bigger the wage gap across spouses, the smaller the labor supply of the secondary earner, which is typically the wife.”

— Stefania Albanesi, an economics professor at the University of Pittsburgh

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The September jobs numbers, released by the Labor Department on Friday, confirmed what economists and experts had feared: The recession unleashed by the pandemic is sidelining hundreds of thousands of women and wiping out the hard-fought gains they made in the workplace over the past few years.

While the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 7.9 percent in September, far below the record high of nearly 15 percent in April, a large part of that drop was driven not so much by economic growth — though there were some job gains — but by hundreds of thousands of people leaving the job market altogether.

A majority of those dropping out were women. Of the 1.1 million people ages 20 and over who left the work force (neither working nor looking for work) between August and September, over 800,000 were women, according to an analysis by the National Women’s Law Center. That figure includes 324,000 Latinas and 58,000 Black women. For comparison, 216,000 men left the job market in the same time period.

At the start of the pandemic, the job losses among women were a direct result of the collapse of female-dominated industries like hospitality, education, entertainment and even some parts of the health care system.

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But even as parts of the economy stirred back to life, the data suggests that some women were actually opting out.

A key factor in their decision? The persistent gender wage gap, experts said.

“The earnings gap issue is a big part of the story at this point,” said Stefania Albanesi, an economics professor at the University of Pittsburgh who has studied gender inequalities in the work force.

Throughout the year, there have been signs of women buckling under the burden of unpaid labor while juggling full-time jobs. A report from Lean In and McKinsey & Company, published in September, found that of 40,000 women surveyed across corporate America between May and August, 1 in 4 was contemplating resigning or downshifting her career — perhaps going part time, leaving for a less demanding job or finding a job with better work-life balance.

As the caregiving burden increased, with many schools and child care centers still shuttered heading into the fall, many women — particularly white women — made the decision to bow out of the work force.

The labor participation rate in September among white women ages 20 and older was 56.3 percent, down from 58.3 percent in the same period last year. For Black women, it was 59.8 percent, down from 62 percent last September, and the participation rate for Hispanic or Latina women was 57 percent, down from 61 percent a year earlier.

“White families tend to have higher wealth and higher average income so they can afford to reduce labor supply, compared to most African-American households, where earnings are quite low,” Professor Albanesi said.

When making the decision as to who will look after kids or sick family members, it only makes economic sense for the higher-wage earner to go back to work, Professor Albanesi explained, and in a dual-income household, more often than not, the higher-wage earner is a man.

“The bigger the wage gap across spouses, the smaller the labor supply of the secondary earner, which is typically the wife,” she said.

Dropping out of the work force completely has long-term consequences not just for the woman trying to re-enter the work force down the line but also for women’s overall position in the work force, said Matthias Doepke, an economics professor at Northwestern University who is the co-author of a report published in August about the gendered impacts of this economic recession.

“First of all, it takes some time to find a new job,” Professor Doepke said, “but what’s actually more important is that it’s even more difficult to find a job that is comparable and to get back to the same career position.”

“So we see that even decades after a recession, people who lost their jobs often have low earnings,” he added.

That, in turn, has an impact on the wage gap. According to Professor Doepke’s research, this recession will likely widen that gap by five percentage points, further perpetuating the conditions that drove women out of the workplace this year.

When women do step out of the work force, whether it’s because they were laid off or because they stepped out voluntarily, they are more likely to stay out of the work force longer,” said Kweilin Ellingrud, a senior partner at McKinsey and co-author of its report with Lean In. “That is a very worrisome story.”

“We’ve now lost a lot of ground that we had gained very, very slowly over the last decade,” she added.

What else is happening

Here are three articles from The Times you may have missed.

Nadeen Ashraf, 22, at home with a friend.Sima Diab for The New York Times
  • “This guy had been getting away with stuff since the 10th grade. I wanted to stop that.” In a moment of rage, Nadeen Ashraf created an Instagram page naming a man accused of being a sexual harasser. Now she is a growing force behind Egypt’s #MeToo movement. [Read the story]
  • “Next thing I know, she’s on the ground.” Fifteen hours of audio from the Breonna Taylor grand jury proceedings reveal conflicting accounts of the fatal raid. [Read the story]
  • “We have always said that we will not be silenced.” Harvey Weinstein faces six additional sexual assault charges in Los Angeles. Prosecutors are seeking Mr. Weinstein’s extradition from prison in New York to face the charges, which now include four counts of forcible rape. [Read the story]

In Her Words is written by Alisha Haridasani Gupta and edited by Francesca Donner. Our art director is Catherine Gilmore-Barnes, and our photo editor is Sandra Stevenson.

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On Politics: Trump Tests Positive for Coronavirus: This Week in the 2020 Race

A year of surprises had its biggest one yet — a coronavirus diagnosis for President Trump that has
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By Astead W. Herndon and Annie Karni

Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign.

A shadow of President Trump is seen descending from Air Force One for a campaign rally in Duluth, Minn., on Wednesday.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

The week in numbers

  • On television and radio, the Biden campaign spent $49.5 million over the past week, more than double what the Trump campaign spent — about $21.3 million — according to Advertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm. The Biden campaign is also dominant on Facebook, where they spent $6.2 million over the past week while the Trump team spent $4.5 million on the platform.
  • There’s no telling how things will shake out by early next week, when we start to see results from polls conducted after the president announced his positive coronavirus test results. A batch of state polls released in the days just before that announcement painted a grim picture for President Trump, who trailed Joe Biden by at least five percentage points in phone polls from The New York Times/Siena College, ABC News/The Washington Post and Monmouth University.
  • In a pair of other surveys by The Times and Siena, Mr. Trump trailed by nine points among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a state he almost certainly needs to win, and by seven points in a key suburban district around Omaha that voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, and awards one electoral vote independent of the rest of Nebraska.

Catch me up

Even before Friday morning, and even in a year in which every month brings a new upheaval, this week was unique. It started with a presidential debate unlike any other, and continued as the White House struggled to clearly denounce white supremacy groups. But it ended with a bombshell: President Trump and Melania Trump, the first lady, said that they had tested positive for the coronavirus, throwing the White House and the presidential race into upheaval.

The president’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, said Friday afternoon that Mr. Trump was experiencing mild symptoms. The president, who skipped a scheduled afternoon call with the nation’s governors, then went to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for what was expected to be a stay of a few days. Democratic politicians, including the presidential nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr., wished the president and the first lady a speedy recovery.

What comes next may define the remaining four weeks until Election Day, and bring the year’s two biggest story lines — a pandemic and a national election framed as a referendum on Mr. Trump — into direct convergence.

Where does the Trump campaign go from here?

The White House is seen just hours after Mr. Trump and the first lady, Melania Trump, announced that they had tested positive for the coronavirus.Doug Mills/The New York Times

The diagnosis now forces a campaign that has flouted local virus-related restrictions to directly confront the realities of the virus. Here how the diagnosis will impact the Trump campaign, and a caution:

  • No public events: The Trump campaign, down in the polls and lagging Mr. Biden in fund-raising, has pointed to the energy at Mr. Trump’s in-person campaign events as a comforting sign. On Friday, the campaign announced that it had postponed all scheduled in-person events involving the president or his family. The diagnosis also shines a spotlight on the practices the campaign refused to enforce during rallies: social distancing, mask wearing and congregating indoors.
  • Caution on health speculation: Mr. Trump and the first lady have said they have mild symptoms after testing positive for coronavirus. Beyond that, the origin of their cases is unknown, as is the full extent of the symptoms they could experience. That distinction is important, to avoid misinformation and speculation that could disrupt the system in a precarious time.

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How the diagnosis may affect Biden’s campaign

Mr. Biden waving to journalists before boarding a plane for a flight to Grand Rapids, Mich., on Friday.Mark Makela for The New York Times

The news from the White House surprised Mr. Biden’s campaign, which learned of the positive tests from news media reports and not from the Trump campaign. Mr. Biden, his wife, and Senator Kamala Harris of California, Mr. Biden’s running mate, all tested negative for the coronavirus in the past 24 hours.

There are, of course, several ways the diagnosis causes uncertainty for Mr. Biden. In tone and substance, the former vice president will have to restructure portions of his campaign to seem in step with the moment.

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  • The next presidential debate: The Biden campaign has been cautious about the candidate interacting with the public. However, even with limited in-person events, the Biden campaign will now have to decide how to proceed with the next presidential debate, which is scheduled for Oct. 15. That timeline is most likely too soon for someone who has tested positive for the coronavirus just two weeks before. Maybe a debate over Zoom?
  • Tone down the attacks: It is unlikely that Mr. Biden will reach for his same arsenal of attacks on Mr. Trump and his administration while the president is experiencing a health crisis. This week, after the debate in which Mr. Biden called Mr. Trump “the worst president” America has ever had, there was some hand-wringing by both parties about the number of personal attacks leveled by each candidate. That has already changed Friday, as Mr. Biden’s campaign pulled its negative advertisements and the candidate did not attack Mr. Trump during a visit to Michigan.
  • Focus on the affirmative message: This week, Mr. Biden’s campaign quietly announced it was resuming in-person canvassing, after months of arguing that it could reach voters without such methods. This could be a time for Mr. Biden and his new canvassing army to focus on making the pro-Biden case for the White House, distinct from his case for removing Mr. Trump. Expect to hear more about health care, climate change and other policies that the campaign thinks draws a specific contrast.

Remember the debate?

Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden holding their first presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday.Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Before Friday, Mr. Trump and the White House were still consumed by the fallout of a debate performance that devolved into personal insults and chaotic moments largely because of the president’s numerous interruptions. Even Trump allies criticized it. What will be remembered by many was Mr. Trump’s remark aimed at the white supremacy group, the Proud Boys, telling them to “stand back and stand by.”

Here are other moments, less talked about, that could cause trouble for Mr. Trump. Polling from battleground states and national debate watchers have shown a majority of respondents think Mr. Biden was the clear winner, mainly because of Mr. Trump’s behavior.

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  • Trump on abortion rights: Though many in Mr. Trump’s sphere see overturning Roe v. Wade as a top judicial priority, the president was noncommittal in a debate exchange with Mr. Biden. When the Democrat remarked that a woman’s right to choose was on the ballot this November because of Mr. Trump’s judicial appointments, the president said “It’s not on the ballot” and “There’s nothing happening there.”
  • Trump on the coronavirus vaccine: The president claimed that the military is “all set up” for the distribution of the coronavirus vaccine, and that soldiers could deliver 200,000 vaccines every day. Public health experts have said Mr. Trump is repeatedly creating false confidence about the distribution and timeline of the vaccine. More specifically, the C.D.C. is leading the vaccine distribution plan, not the military.
  • Trump on military veterans: At one point, Mr. Biden confronted the president about reported comments that he called veterans and service members who died in combat “losers” and “suckers.” But Mr. Trump, who has previously dismissed that news report as false, did not take the time to do it onstage or affirm his support for service members. He pivoted to attack Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter, and insulted his previous struggle with drug addiction. After the debate, even some Republicans said that moment crossed the line.

What you might have missed

Mr. Trump walking with Judge Amy Coney Barrett and her relatives after he announced her as his Supreme Court nominee.Al Drago for The New York Times
Nick Corasaniti, Isabella Grullón Paz and Giovanni Russonello contributed reporting.

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