Saturday, December 19, 2020

On Politics: What Biden’s Team Tells Us

In our last newsletter of 2020, let’s look at what Joe Biden’s emerging administration might mean for the political battles of 2021.
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By Lisa Lerer

Politics Newsletter Writer

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your wrap-up of the week in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

Kaisha Murzamadiyeva

The holidays always feel like such a transitional time: the final egg-nog-soaked parties of the year, before the resolutions and restarts come.

This year, I find myself missing those traditions — and who thought you could miss awkward small talk? — but that sense of future transformation is everywhere. The first inoculations of a new vaccine, the final gasps of the election and a new administration waiting to take power.

In recent weeks, President-elect Joe Biden and his team have been dropping hints about the changes to come, gradually shaping the new government with their cabinet picks. Some of the biggest posts, including the attorney general, remain unfilled. But we’re starting to get our first real sense of the people who will help define U.S. policy for the next few years.

Here’s what we know so far about Mr. Biden’s cabinet and what his picks tell us about his approach to governance, political priorities and leadership style. (Want to know who has been selected? We’re keeping a running tally.)

They’re the old guard. Literally.

Sure, Mr. Biden selected Pete Buttigieg, 38, as secretary of transportation. But don’t let the selection of the wunderkind former mayor deceive you. Mr. Biden’s cabinet is, well, mature.

In 2009, Mr. Biden, then 66, was the oldest member of President Barack Obama’s first cabinet. More than a decade later, five members of his own proposed cabinet are even older. Janet Yellen, his pick for Treasury secretary, would be the most senior official at 74 — and is still four years younger than Mr. Biden.

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Only four of the 20 or so top officials he’s picked so far are under 50: Mr. Buttigieg, Jake Sullivan as national security adviser, Katherine Tai as U.S. trade representative and Michael Regan as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

But age is just a number, right? Yes, unless you’re trying to usher in the next era of the Democratic Party. It’s not just Mr. Biden’s cabinet that’s older, but the entire leadership of his party. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is 80; Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, is 70; and Mr. Biden will be the oldest president in American history when he takes office at 78.

During his campaign, Mr. Biden cast himself as a “transition candidate,” an elder statesman who would help foster new Democratic talent. But his cabinet doesn’t look like much of a bridge between generations.

They look like an Obama reboot.

Typically, when new presidents enter the White House, they infuse our national political drama with a new cast of characters.

Many of Mr. Biden’s picks seem to be entering their second or third season.

Most of them served with Mr. Biden during the Obama administration — some even in the same position, like Tom Vilsack, who was Mr. Obama’s agriculture secretary for eight years. Others got a promotion: Alejandro Mayorkas was deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security under the Obama administration and has now been picked for the top job.

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With the pandemic still raging, Mr. Biden and his team will inherit a country facing extraordinary economic, foreign policy and public health challenges. Under those circumstances, the president-elect and his allies have argued that he needs to pick experienced Washington technocrats who know how to navigate the bureaucracy.

Of course, the risk of picking the same old people is that you end up with the same old ideas, rather than defining a new governing doctrine.

They’re diverse.

Mr. Biden vowed to pick the most diverse cabinet in history — and he seems well on his way to fulfilling that pledge. At least 10 of his top-level picks so far are women and 11 are people of color.

If confirmed, his cabinet members would include, to name a few, the first female Treasury secretary (Ms. Yellen), the first openly gay Senate-approved cabinet member (Mr. Buttigieg), the first Latino and first immigrant to head the Department of Homeland Security (Mr. Mayorkas) and the first Native American cabinet member (Deb Haaland as interior secretary).

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At the same time, Mr. Biden’s promise has kicked off some fierce fights within his party. When he chose Lloyd Austin for defense secretary — potentially the first Black man to run the Pentagon — some women in national security were upset that Michèle Flournoy was passed over. Hispanic lawmakers have been pressing for at least two Latinas in crucial roles, and the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus has pushed for greater representation, too. Civil rights groups, meanwhile, are urging Mr. Biden to pick a Black attorney general with a proven track record on issues like criminal justice and voting rights.

The early battles may be a preview of what Mr. Biden will have to navigate as he tries to unify a fractious, diverse party behind his agenda.

They’re a team of … pals?

Shortly before Mr. Obama became president, he told reporters of his plans to create a “team of rivals” — stealing a phrase from Abraham Lincoln’s famous desire for cabinet members who would challenge one another.

Mr. Biden appears to be taking the opposite approach. Known to prize loyalty, he’s made personal relationships central to his governing style. His chief of staff, Ron Klain, first worked for him more than three decades ago as a congressional aide. Antony Blinken, his choice for secretary of state, has been at his side for nearly 20 years.

Mr. Obama picked Hillary Clinton, his biggest Democratic primary rival, for secretary of state; Mr. Biden skipped over Elizabeth Warren, one of his most formidable opponents, for Treasury secretary.

Instead, he selected Ms. Yellen — the woman Mr. Obama nominated to lead the Federal Reserve in 2013.

Joe Biden is still Joe Biden.

Progressives seem to have enough clout to stop Mr. Biden from picking some people they strongly oppose — see: Emanuel, Rahm — but not quite enough power to get their allies in top posts. With the exception of Ms. Haaland, the liberal wing of the party hasn’t elevated many of its stars.

In fact, many of Mr. Biden’s picks seem intended to avoid antagonizing Republicans, a strategic choice given that they could still control the Senate in January. Some Democrats are skeptical of that approach, arguing that Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader, will torpedo all of Mr. Biden’s initiatives no matter who’s on his team.

What we can conclude from all of this political maneuvering may not particularly be surprising: Mr. Biden remains a centrist, establishment politician. And he is crafting a centrist, establishment administration.

Happy New Year!

Thanks for sticking with us through this annus horribilis. Gio and I are taking a little break, and we’ll see you in 2021. Here’s hoping for a new year packed with vaccines, good health and far fewer breaking news alerts.

What’s next before Inauguration Day?

On Monday, the Electoral College cast its ballots for Mr. Biden, officially affirming the president-elect’s victory. But there may still be one last gasp of election drama to come.

(The important word is drama. At this point, any efforts to change the outcome of the 2020 election are pure political theater.)

The action now moves to Congress, which will formally count the electoral votes in a joint session held in the House chamber on Jan. 6, with Vice President Mike Pence presiding. There is no debate permitted during the counting of the electoral votes. But there is a process by which members can lodge their opposition to a state’s ballots.

Already, at least two House members — incoming Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Representative Mo Brooks of Alabama — plan to raise formal objections. Their effort is expected to be little more than a symbolic stand. Any objection must pass both chambers with a simple majority, a highly unlikely outcome given Democratic control of the House.

In a recognition of political reality, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky began a campaign this week to keep Republicans from joining the doomed effort, hoping to avoid the spectacle of starting the new Congress with a messy partisan battle.

Perhaps his biggest obstacle? Soon-to-be-former President Trump may have other ideas.

Want to know more? Here’s our explainer on what happens next.

By the numbers: 7.8 million

… That’s the number of Americans who have fallen into poverty since June, according to new data released this week by researchers at the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame.

It is the biggest increase in a single year since the government began tracking poverty numbers six decades ago.

As we say at The New York Times, remember the neediest this holiday season.

… Seriously

I’m a sucker for a good dance party. Especially one celebrating the vaccine.

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Thanks for reading. On Politics is your guide to the political news cycle, delivering clarity from the chaos.

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Friday, December 18, 2020

On Politics: America’s Leaders Begin to Get Vaccinated

Pence today, Biden and McConnell soon: This is your morning tip sheet.

Vaccines are being distributed in Washington, while Congress haggles over the details of the stimulus deal. It’s Friday, and this is your politics tip sheet.

   

Where things stand

  • Mike Pence will receive a coronavirus vaccine today, in what the administration called an effort to “promote the safety and efficacy of the vaccine and build confidence among the American people.”
  • Joe Biden will also receive a vaccine soon, possibly next week. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, has said that like Biden, he will be vaccinated publicly, to demonstrate his confidence in the vaccine. And Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader and a polio survivor, said yesterday that he would receive a vaccine “in the coming days.”
  • One of Biden’s closest advisers, Representative Cedric Richmond, began a 14-day quarantine after testing positive for the virus, according to a spokeswoman for the transition. Richmond, who appeared briefly beside Biden at an outdoor event in Georgia this week, is the first announced member of Biden’s White House staff to report testing positive.

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  • Biden named Michael Regan, North Carolina’s top environmental regulator, as his choice to run the Environmental Protection Agency. Regan would be the first Black man to run the E.P.A., which will be central to Biden’s plans for tackling climate change and spearheading a green-jobs recovery.
  • Regan will also be responsible for reinstating a broad range of pollution and climate regulations that President Trump has rolled back, and re-establishing the primary role of science in the agency.
  • Biden has also decided to tap Representative Deb Haaland to become his next secretary of the interior. She would be the first Native American appointed to a cabinet secretary position. Haaland had emerged in recent days as the consensus pick among progressives, moderates and even some conservatives.
  • Biden defended his son Hunter from accusations of tax fraud during an interview yesterday with Stephen Colbert, stepping further into the public back-and-forth on the matter for the first time since Hunter Biden acknowledged last week that federal prosecutors were investigating his tax affairs.
  • “I’m not concerned about any accusations that have been made against him,” the president-elect said at first in an interview that aired on “The Late Show” last night, but was posted in partial form online hours earlier.
  • When prodded, he went further. “I think it’s kind of foul play,” Biden said in a clip that CBS released in the afternoon. “It is what it is,” he added.
  • This week, Biden told a reporter that he was “confident” that his son had done nothing wrong. These kinds of comments could complicate the job of whoever becomes attorney general. That person will both inherit the Hunter Biden investigation and face strong pressure to depoliticize the Justice Department after four years under Trump.
  • Much has been made of officials’ claims that this year’s election was “the most secure” in the nation’s history. But for anyone wondering whether the United States remains vulnerable to cyberattacks, the answer has arrived loud and clear in recent weeks: yes.
  • Evidence emerged that Russia has been leading a broad espionage attack since the spring on federal agencies and private companies. The breach was finally detected by the private sector a few weeks ago, and the successful attack now stands as one of the greatest intelligence failures of modern history.
  • The cybersecurity arm of the Department of Homeland Security said yesterday that the attackers had used a much wider array of tools than previously known as they hacked into key government networks, including in the Treasury and Commerce Departments, and gained deep access to their systems.
  • The Trump administration has said little publicly about the hacking. Biden said yesterday that his administration would extract “substantial costs” from those responsible. “A good defense isn’t enough; we need to disrupt and deter our adversaries from undertaking significant cyberattacks in the first place,” Biden said.
  • A stimulus deal seems to be on the fast track all of a sudden, but Democrats are worried that Republicans could use it to limit Biden’s ability to provide economic relief in the future.
  • In addition to opposing direct aid to state governments — which Democrats say is fundamental to keeping public-sector workers employed and the economy stable — Republicans are seeking to limit the power of the Federal Reserve going forward to extend financing to businesses, municipalities or other institutions.

Photo of the day

Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times

A worker cleaned a window yesterday in the Rotunda of the Capitol in Washington.

Examining Trump’s impact on the federal courts

Trump may be a one-term president, but he has already left an indelible mark on the judicial branch that will last for decades. In just four years, he has appointed nearly as many appeals judges as his predecessors, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, did in each of their two-term presidencies.

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Our investigative reporter Rebecca R. Ruiz has been working with the data journalist Robert Gebeloff to analyze Trump’s effect on the federal bench, and in a newly published article they show that his appointees have amassed a record suggesting they are more staunchly conservative than past Republican appointees.

Rebecca agreed to answer a few questions for On Politics about what her and Robert’s investigation revealed.

How many judges has President Trump appointed, and how does that compare with his predecessors?

Over all, Trump has named more than 225 federal judges to lifetime appointments.

But the numbers continue to climb: Just this week, we saw President Trump’s 54th appointment to a federal appeals court. For context, over their respective eight years in the White House, President Obama appointed 55 appellate judges and President George W. Bush appointed 62.

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We’ve paid a lot of attention to the three Trump picks for the Supreme Court, but he’s also populated nearly a third of the influential appeals courts — where the vast majority of contested federal litigation ends, and where his administration has been laser-focused in prioritizing nominations.

The sheer number of appointments is significant, but the impact has just as much to do with the types of lawyers — unbending conservatives — that his administration has chosen.

This year, you and some colleagues analyzed over 10,000 decisions handed down by federal judges, with an eye toward Trump appointees. What were your findings?

We looked specifically at the appellate cases, which are largely decided unanimously by three-judge panels. Dissent is unusual, but when it happens it’s likelier to be among judges appointed by presidents of different parties — that is, judges who may have conservative versus liberal views of the law.

Even within that context, Trump appointees stood out, and we found that they’ve already made waves. As a group, they are nearly four times as likely to clash with colleagues appointed by Democratic presidents as those appointed by Republicans. At the same time, they’re more likely to agree with fellow Republican appointees — suggesting they’re more steadfastly conservative.

A central aspect of judicial selection under this administration has been the search for nominees with fuller public histories of conservatism, deeper ties to Republican politics and longer paper trails — all in the hope of weeding out wild cards. Based on our analysis of these early decisions, it appears that method has worked.

You updated those findings in your new article, analyzing more than 1,700 published opinions from the first half of 2020. What’s changed?

We’ve now assessed a bigger body of work, a full three and a half years of published judicial opinions across the appeals courts. So we have more data on the judges; we’re getting to know them better.

As a group, that notable trend in their decision-making has not only held but also strengthened: They’re likelier than colleagues appointed by Trump’s Republican predecessors to stake out starkly different positions from their liberal peers and to agree with their conservative ones.

It takes years to understand the full impact of judicial appointments, but this pattern provides a strong early indication of the changing dynamics on the courts that are affecting a wide range of federal appeals, sometimes relating to issues like immigration policy, police powers and gun rights.

Many of the judges Trump has named are relatively young, and they appear poised to have an impact on the judiciary for generations. What steps could Biden take as president to shift back the ideological balance of the federal court system?

That’s the key question for Democrats hoping to blunt the force of this legacy. We heard a lot of debate over court-packing leading up to the election, but such expansions of the Supreme Court or the appeals courts would hinge on Democrats’ taking control of the Senate by winning the runoff elections in Georgia.

Even then, it’s not clear Biden would support expanding the federal bench. He’s danced around the calls from progressive Democrats to do so and said he’d look to a bipartisan commission for advice.

Fundamentally, the debate over the courts is sure to escalate, as traditionalists have expressed concern that overt searches for ideologues — either liberals or conservatives — damage public perceptions of the nonpolitical branch of government, just as some Democrats argue that liberals urgently need to counterbalance the weight of Trump’s work.

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