Friday, January 14, 2022

On Politics: To run or not to run? That’s the midterm question.

For members of Congress weighing if another run is worth it, the time to decide is fast approaching.
Representative John Katko, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump, announced that he will not run for re-election.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times

A time for choosing

It's crunchtime in the campaign world.

With states wrapping up the redistricting process and filing deadlines approaching for candidates, lawmakers are running out of time to decide whether they want to spend another term in Congress — and whether they have the energy to run the kind of race that would get them re-elected in their newly drawn districts.

In the House, up to 435 members must face the voters every two years; and so far, nearly 40 have opted out.

But the announcement on Friday by Representative John Katko of New York, who said he won't seek re-election, is especially newsworthy for what it says about the modern Republican Party. Katko is one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump, which infuriated the former president. With New York's new congressional map in limbo, he chose to retire without even knowing what his new district might look like. He was an influential moderate who was willing to work with Democrats, including his failed attempt to broker a bipartisan committee to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

In California, one Republican candidate's decision to run for re-election is probably the G.O.P.'s only chance of holding on to one of its few seats in the state. And in New Jersey, a Democrat who has everything working against him is trying to hold on rather than cede his new district to Republicans.

Given Democrats' razor-thin majorities, each of these decisions could help determine control of Congress in November. And even if Republicans were never truly at risk of losing a Senate seat in South Dakota, Senator John Thune's decision to run for re-election after some hesitancy sent an important signal this week about Trump's hold on their party.

A Republican's vote to impeach Trump could help his party

Presidential candidates don't "win" individual congressional districts. They win states, along with their Electoral College votes. But political analysts have for years calculated candidates' performance in counties and congressional districts for the sole purpose of measuring the partisan balance. That's how we know there are two Republican House impeachers who represent districts that Biden carried: Katko and David Valadao.

Unlike Katko, Valadao decided to run again. He has held California's 21st District, in the state's Central Valley, for the better part of the last decade, with a brief hiatus when he was swept out of Congress in the 2018 Democratic wave. Two years later, he won his seat back, and now he's running for re-election in the newly drawn 22nd District, which is even friendlier to Democrats.

Valadao's vote to impeach Trump could be an asset for him in his district. That's not the case for most of his G.O.P. colleagues who voted the same way. Valadao is one of just nine House Republicans who represent a district that President Biden carried in 2020. And while Republicans who are upset with his vote have already started to jump into the race to challenge him for the G.O.P. nomination, a right-wing candidate would be a hard sell in a general election.

A Democrat who drew the short straw is running anyway

First elected in the anti-Trump wave of 2018, Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey, has only ever run in competitive House elections. But 2022 might make his previous races look easy.

In the redistricting process, two of his Democratic colleagues also elected in the state in 2018 — Representatives Mikie Sherrill and Andy Kim — were drawn into safer seats. As David Wasserman, of The Cook Political Report, put it, Malinowski's district "was more or less sacrificed" to protect other Democratic incumbents.

Malinowski is running in a tougher district in 2022, and likely in a tougher political environment than he's faced in his previous races. There might be at least one factor that he's familiar with, however: His G.O.P. opponent, Tom Kean Jr., who came short by just over 5,000 votes when he took on Malinowski in 2020, is running again.

Malinowski was one of a handful of Democrats who campaigned as moderates and who won in the 2018 wave. His re-election bid will test whether that kind of independent persona can withstand a potential Republican wave.

"That's what people in the district like," noted Sean Darcy, a New Jersey-based political consultant. "He'll have five or six months to introduce himself to his new constituents while Republicans beat each other up."

Republican senators brush off Trump

Given how red the state has become, there's really only one way that a South Dakota race could get interesting: intervention by Trump. Concerned about that possibility, Senator John Thune had been waiting on making a decision to run again. After all, Trump threatened to support a primary challenger to Thune, the second-ranking Senate Republican, because he accepted the 2020 election results. And recent reporting suggests Trump hasn't quite yet given up on Kristi Noem, who has already said she's running for re-election as South Dakota's governor, as a potential primary threat.

"I don't think that Senator John Thune is intimidated by Donald Trump," Dick Wadhams, a Republican strategist, told us.

Neither, apparently, is South Dakota's other senator, Mike Rounds, who stood his ground this week after the former president called him a "jerk" for saying during an appearance on ABC News that the election was not stolen in 2020.

The filing deadline for Republican candidates in Thune's Senate race is not until the end of March, leaving Trump plenty of time to cause trouble.

What to read tonight

Subscribe Today

We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer.

VIEWFINDER
Doug Mills/The New York Times

We'll regularly feature work by Doug Mills, The Times's longtime White House photographer and a two-time Pulitzer Prize winner. Here's what Doug had to say about capturing the shot above. He took it on Tuesday, after a joint appearance by President Biden and Vice President Harris at Clark Atlanta University and Morehouse College:

Being on that campus, you feel the weight of history. Both Vice President Harris and President Biden made passionate remarks about civil rights and voting rights. When Biden finished speaking, Harris joined him onstage. As they departed, he put his arm around her and they shared a moment we don't see that often. It reminded me of the time my colleague Steve Crowley captured President Obama in 2015 putting his arm around then-Vice President Biden after the Supreme Court endorsed the Affordable Care Act.

Thanks for reading. We'll see you next week. On Politics will be off on Monday because of the federal holiday.

— Blake & Leah

Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.

Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times.

To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.

Subscribe to The Times

Connect with us on:

facebooktwitterinstagram

Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices

The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

Thursday, January 13, 2022

On Politics: Anti-Trump Republicans diverge on 2022

They helped oust a president. Can they still influence their party's future?
The Never Trump movement within the Republican Party finds itself splintered as the 2022 election season begins.Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Never Trumpers ponder what's next

For those Republicans who dare to publicly oppose Donald J. Trump, politics can be a lonely place.

Both Jeff Flake, the former Senator from Arizona, and Cindy McCain, the widow of Senator John McCain, landed ambassadorships in the Biden administration, but has anyone heard from the former senator from Tennessee, Bob Corker, lately? As for the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last year, the former president has succeeded in pushing them out, or else frighten most of the rest into silence, with the fates of a few others — notably, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming — yet to be written.

As for the broader network of disaffected Republican strategists and activists who worked to defeat Trump in 2020, the upcoming midterms are highlighting a conundrum: With Trump not on the ballot, what should they be doing in 2022?

Some still hope to change the Republican Party from within, while others have determined that the entire institution has become a danger to American democracy. Many are increasingly frustrated, too, with the direction of the Democratic Party and the Biden administration, and have peppered their new allies with advice, both publicly and privately.

The result is a Never Trump movement that finds itself splintered as the election season begins, with various groups pursuing their own strategies and no discernible central organizing hub.

"I think there's a fair amount of burnout, to be honest," said Geoffrey Kabaservice, a historian of the Republican Party and vice president of political studies at the Niskanen Center, a libertarian think tank. Many disaffected Republicans, he added, are "retreating into their cocoons."

The G.O.P.'s congressional leaders, Representative Kevin McCarthy and Senator Mitch McConnell, have toggled between enabling and resisting Trump to various degrees — leading to competing assessments of whether they should be returned to power.

Sarah Longwell, a prominent anti-Trump strategist, described her approach to 2022 as "a little from Column A and a little from Column B." Her group, the Republican Accountability Project, is planning to raise and spend $40 million to bolster "pro-democracy" Republicans and target candidates who say the 2020 election was stolen.

Others have decided to focus on supporting Democrats outright, making the argument that a Republican Party led by Trump must be defeated before it can be rebuilt.

"People are taking the fight in different directions, and that's OK," said Mike Madrid, a co-founder of the defunct Lincoln Project, which supported Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. "Nobody in the Never Trump movement has any idea how this plays out."

The change agents

Christine Todd Whitman, a former governor of New Jersey, is one of the Never Trumpers who have decided to try boosting centrist Republicans — a vanishing breed in a party still dominated by Trump and his allies.

Whitman is a co-chair of States United Democracy Center, a bipartisan effort to counter Trump's attempts to subvert elections, and an adviser to the Renew America Movement, another anti-Trump group led by Miles Taylor, who wrote an anonymous Op-Ed essay in The New York Times while serving as a Department of Homeland Security official in the Trump administration.

"​​I'm a Republican, and so I'm hoping that we're going to be successful in primaries," Whitman said in an interview, referring to her fellow centrists. Her hope, she added, was to help elect enough moderate Republicans to "give backbone to some of those who want to stand up and just are so afraid of party leadership."

The Senate, however, where Democrats have a stronger chance of preserving their majority, is a different story. There, she's working to help Democrats "at least so they can push back against some of the worst, the most egregious things that are going to happen in the House," she explained. In Arizona, for example, she plans to support Senator Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent.

Asked if she wants Republicans to win congressional majorities, Whitman said, "If we're going to see the dominance of the far right, no."

Frustration with Democrats

Several anti-Trump Republicans expressed exasperation with the left wing of the Democratic Party, which they believe misunderstands the political moment and too often embraces causes, such as defunding the police, that poll badly with swing voters.

"I think there's a lot of angst out there about the Democrats," said Charlie Sykes, the founder and editor-at-large at The Bulwark, which has become a congregating ground for anti-Trump commentators and activists.

In recent months, Sykes and like-minded conservatives have grown despondent over President Biden's dismal poll numbers and other issues, such as New York City granting noncitizens the right to vote. They have urged Democrats to return to the middle-of-the-road approach that won them the White House in 2020.

Describing his message to Democrats, Sykes said: "We are trying to give you tough love because the next two elections are not going to be decided in Burlington, Vt., or the faculty lounge at Oberlin," the liberal arts college in Ohio. "The fate of democracy is not going to be decided by the MSNBC green room," he added.

Sykes and others fear Republicans and right-leaning independents who voted for Biden last fall will become similarly disillusioned, and usher Trump's enablers in Congress back to power in November.

"Democrats have been renting their loyalty," Kabaservice, the Republican historian, said of Republican voters who supported Biden. "They don't own them."

The inside play

Mike Duhaime, a Republican strategist who has been critical of Trump, argued that abandoning the G.O.P. is shortsighted. "By walking away from the party, you lose influence on what the party is going to look like," he said.

One point in favor of supporting fellow Republicans is to take advantage of the possibility that voters might sour on Trump, said David Weinman, executive director of An America United, an advocacy group founded by supporters of Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.

"Obviously, Trump still has a stranglehold on the party, but things can change quite quickly in politics, in ways you don't always expect," Weinman said.

It's too early to say what sort of Republican Party the G.O.P.'s expected takeover of the House might yield. A large class of new freshman Republicans, some speculated, might dilute the influence of pro-Trump members like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and strengthen more moderate lawmakers.

Madrid, the Lincoln Project co-founder, described that view as delusional, however. He favors maintaining Democrats in power until the pro-Trump fervor in the G.O.P. subsides.

Wait too long to exorcise Trumpism from the Republican Party, he said, and "it's going to get harder to dig the tick out of the body."

What to read tonight

Subscribe Today

We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times with this special offer.

Harry S. Truman gave his first news conference as president in 1945.Bettmann, via Getty Images

One more thing …

It's been a tough week for President Biden — soaring inflation, setbacks on voting rights and vaccine mandates, lousy poll numbers, a deepening showdown with Russia.

Harry S. Truman could relate.

During one particularly difficult stretch of his presidency, in July 1946, Truman unloaded his frustrations in a letter to his mother and sister.

"Had the most awful day I've ever had Tuesday," he began. "Saw somebody every fifteen minutes on a different subject, held a Cabinet luncheon and spent two solid hours discussing Palestine and got nowhere. Today's been almost as bad but not quite."

Several days later, he sent another lament to his wife, Bess, back in his native Missouri. "I still have a number of bills staring me in the face," Truman began, before going into detail on some of his legislative headaches. "It sure is hell to be President."

Thanks for reading. We'll see you tomorrow.

— Blake & Leah

Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.

Is there anything you think we're missing? Anything you want to see more of? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times.

To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.

Subscribe to The Times

Connect with us on:

facebooktwitterinstagram

Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices

The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018