On Politics Poll Watch: Trump and the Virus Are Intertwined

The president’s response to the outbreak, and how it’s perceived, will probably swing the election.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story May 29, 2020 By Giovanni Russonello Welcome to Poll Watch, our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election. The coronavirus has completely overtaken American life and politics, but in polls, most people don’t name it as their top voting issue. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Political observers agree that what happens with the virus over the next few months is likely to determine the outcome of the November presidential election, but what they really mean is this: President Trump’s response to the virus — and how it’s perceived — will probably swing the election. Tied closely to that is how much the economy bounces back. “The two top interrelated issues right now are the state of the pandemic and the state of the economy, and it’s hard to separate the two,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said in an interview. “The real question is what it looks like come October.” In a Kaiser Family Foundation poll released this week, voters were markedly more likely to name traditional issues like health care, the economy and foreign policy as the ones they’ll be voting on. Still, 50 percent said the virus would be very important to their vote for president, and 72 percent said the pandemic would factor into their vote at least somewhat. When asked in an open-ended question what exactly they meant by that, the most common response was some variation of this: How Mr. Trump responds. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Doubts over Trump’s handling of the virus From early April to late May, the virus’s death toll skyrocketed. Just over 50,000 people had been killed by the pandemic worldwide at the start of last month, but today the death toll in the United States alone is more than 100,000. In that time, governors have called on Mr. Trump to address testing deficiencies — usually to no avail — and he has often struck a defiant tone when asked why he isn’t doing more. Even among Republicans, approval of Mr. Trump’s handling of the virus now runs a few percentage points behind their rating of his overall performance as president. Voters in the political middle, including a small share of Democrats who initially gave Mr. Trump the benefit of the doubt, have particularly lost faith in his handling of the crisis. In a Fox News poll published last week, just 29 percent of independent voters gave him positive marks on dealing with the pandemic. His numbers have also flagged in polling matchups with Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee; rare is the poll these days that finds Mr. Trump escaping the low 40s in a head-to-head scenario. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT In back-to-back Fox polls, Mr. Trump’s approval among registered voters on handling the pandemic fell by eight points from April to May; it now sits at 43 percent, roughly even with his 44 percent approval rating over all, according to Fox. Basically, if you were for Mr. Trump before, you are probably still with him now. If you started out this year generally against him but willing to see how he led during the crisis, you have probably given up on that by now. Still, it matters that Mr. Trump has proved to have a remarkably high floor. With the Republican establishment and the conservative news media firmly behind him, the president is unlikely to fall far below 40 percent approval. To finish strongly in November, he would need to win back between five and 10 points nationally, relying heavily on persuadable voters. “A lot of it has to do with where people will be economically going into the election, and who they will credit or blame for that,” Thomas Sutton, a professor of political science at Baldwin Wallace University in Ohio who runs the university’s statewide poll, said in an interview. “At this point in October, the unemployment rate will be less, Trump will claim credit for that, and Biden’s got to run a really strong campaign with a countermessage to stop him from getting that credit and taking it to victory in Ohio.” The economy could make or break Trump’s chances Mr. Trump has historically enjoyed positive ratings on his handling of the economy. Of the five issues that Fox asked about in its latest poll, the economy was the only one on which voters did not generally say they would prefer to have Mr. Biden overseeing it. The president has made it clear that he prioritizes restarting the economy soon, even if that means disregarding the warnings of his own health experts. With most states now moving forward with a partial reopening of public accommodations and businesses, Mr. Trump is eager to point to signs of economic life. Unemployment has climbed to 14.7 percent — and it is probably much higher than that, in reality — the stock market has largely bounced back, and public confidence in a recovery is rising. Only 50 percent of Americans now say the worst days of the pandemic are ahead, down from three-fourths in early April. And the Consumer Confidence Index, a polling measure of the national economic mood, finally stabilized this week after taking a historically steep plunge in the weeks before. “You’re not going to get a massive amount of economic growth in this time, but a psychological effect is the biggest thing,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Republican-aligned consultant in Arizona whose firm recently published a poll in that swing state. “People just beginning to feel positive about going out, beginning to socialize, seeing some restaurants open again: I think that’s incredibly important for the general electoral prospects of Republicans.” Could Democratic governors lift Biden? While Mr. Trump has received increasingly middling reviews for his handling of the virus, many governors’ approval ratings have leapt. In poll after poll, Americans have been far more likely to give their state governments high marks on confronting the virus, even as they don’t rate the federal government’s work so well. Many states heavily affected by the virus also happen to be swing states run by Democratic governors whose ratings have surged: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina all fit that description. In two key states, Georgia and Florida, the inverse has occurred: The approval ratings of the Republican governors, both reluctant to enforce social-distancing measures, fell. Very few of these governors in pivotal states are up for re-election in 2020, but their popularity — or unpopularity — could play a role in helping to drive enthusiasm and turnout within their parties. “There are a number of governors who, if they could run for re-election in November, would be untouchable,” Mr. Ayres said. “They have job approvals in the 70s and 80s.” Catherine Cortez Masto says she won’t be Biden’s running mate. Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democratic senator from Nevada, has withdrawn herself from the consideration list of Biden’s potential running mates. Offering few details, the first-term legislator said she wanted to focus on her work in the Senate. “I support Joe Biden 100 percent and will work tirelessly to help get him elected this November,” she wrote in a statement. Ms. Cortez Masto was among more than 10 women who have been publicly mentioned as possible running mates for Biden; he has committed to picking a woman. In publicly putting the kibosh on her own candidacy, Ms. Cortez Masto was not the first politician this year to break with typical veepstakes protocol. Last month, Stacey Abrams, a former state legislator in Georgia whom Mr. Biden has said he is considering, stated outright that she would take the job if it was offered to her — a rare move. Meanwhile, Ms. Cortez Masto’s Senate colleague Amy Klobuchar, a friend of Mr. Biden’s and another possible vice-presidential pick, has found herself back in the spotlight this week, and not for a reason she would have hoped for. When she was the Hennepin County attorney, Ms. Klobuchar declined to prosecute a number of Minneapolis police officers accused of using unnecessary force. This week, one of those officers, Derek Chauvin, knelt on the neck of a black man, George Floyd, who later died. The city has erupted in protests, and Mr. Chauvin has been fired. RECOMMENDED READING Doug Mills/The New York Times   How Trump’s Tweets Cause Collateral Damage for Families Already in Pain The president’s baseless insinuations about the death of Lori Klausutis reflect a callous pattern that can leave even ordinary people facing threats from his supporters long after he has moved on. By Patricia Mazzei, Jennifer Medina, Maggie Haberman and Sydney Ember Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times   News Analysis Trump’s Order on Social Media Could Harm One Person in Particular: Donald Trump Without certain liability protections, companies like Twitter would have to be more aggressive about policing messages that press the boundaries — like the president’s. By Peter Baker and Daisuke Wakabayashi Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics with Lisa Lerer from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. 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In Her Words: On the Frontlines

A health director's round-the-clock challenge.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story May 27, 2020 Sol Cotti By Alisha Haridasani Gupta Gender Reporter “We’re building the plane as we’re trying to fly it.” — Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of the Illinois Department of Health Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT A few weeks ago, Dr. Ngozi Ezike’s four children — ages 17, 16, 13 and 11 — sat her down to deliver a PowerPoint presentation they had put together. It was a detailed assessment of how she was doing in her job as the leader of the Illinois Department of Public Health. “It was like, ‘Well, we’re really proud that you’re doing this important work. It’s cool that you’re on TV,” recalled Dr. Ezike, “‘But now we’re totally over it.’” Their main complaint: She was never home anymore. While family friends were filling the gap, checking in on them and dropping off treats every now and then, they felt like they hadn’t seen their mom in weeks. And when she did get home, she was on the phone late. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT “They were breaking it down for me from their perspective,” said Dr. Ezike in a recent phone interview, which happened to take place on the same day as her youngest child’s birthday. “It hurt.” “But I hope they’ll understand better with time why I had to sacrifice so much time away from them.” Like Dr. Ezike, women across the country have been at the forefront of states’ round-the-clock, all-consuming emergency responses: More than 60 percent of state health directors are women, according to the Barbara Lee Family Foundation. As appointed officials, state health directors typically play a behind-the-scenes role, identifying, tracking and planning interventions around public health risks. But this crisis has catapulted them into the spotlight, standing side by side with governors and mayors, quickly turning them into some of the country’s most recognizable faces. (Ohio’s Dr. Amy Acton, for example, has become something of a local icon, with fan clubs and merchandise dedicated to her.) It is up to state health directors to corral data and come up with policy proposals for advising governors and the rest of the state on things like when to shut down, how to reopen businesses safely and where to set up testing sites. But, in a combustible environment of heightened anxiety and increasingly partisan clashes over the emergency measures put in place, their every move and statement is scrutinized and dissected from every angle. “I try to just stick with what’s the right thing to do and let the politicians do what they have to do,” said Dr. Ezike. “No one is positive of the exact right course — we’re building the plane as we’re trying to fly it.” The criticism her team receives — and there is a lot, particularly over reopening the economy — is balanced out by the “many letters and cards of support and encouragement” sent to her offices, she added. These days, Dr. Ezike’s itinerary of back-to-back meetings and calls kicks off at 6 a.m., when she gets daily updates from local health departments and emergency management and alternate care sites. Then there’s the televised news conference with Governor J.B. Pritzker, during which Dr. Ezike provides critical updates and takes questions from the news media. On some days, Dr. Ezike’s team takes calls from the White House, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and health directors from other states. Her day doesn’t end until about 11 p.m., she said, at which point she tries to go through her emails. “But I’m struggling with that,” she confessed. Illinois, while not the country’s worst hot spot, has undeniably been hit hard. On Jan. 30, the first human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in the U.S. was reported in Chicago — between a wife who had traveled to Wuhan, China, and her husband. Dr. Ezike visited the couple in the hospital and it became clear to her the kinds of troubles that the country was about to face. “We were waiting for official test results to return from the C.D.C. because we didn’t yet have the ability to run the test at our public health labs in Illinois,” she recalled. “The gentleman was considering ‘releasing himself’ from the hospital isolation — he was concerned about missing work and not providing for his family while sitting in isolation.” “In those moments, I gathered my first inkling of the challenge to be faced in containing this virus and how one’s personal economic or financial situation would affect decisions that would affect not just the individual but the community as a whole.” Then on March 21, Illinois became one of the first three states to implement stay-at-home orders. “I think that significantly helped,” Dr. Ezike said. To date, there have been more than 100,000 cases of coronavirus in Illinois and more than 4,900 deaths, bringing the state’s fatality rate to about 39 deaths per 100,000. That number is far below the country’s top three hot spots: New York, which has a fatality rate of 150 deaths per 100,000, New Jersey, where the rate is about 125 per 100,000, and Connecticut, which has a rate of about 105 per 100,000. But Illinois also has some of the country’s largest black and Hispanic populations — communities that, according to the C.D.C., are at a greater risk of dying from the disease, in part because of longstanding inequalities that have made access to health care harder. Thirty percent of the people who have died in Illinois are African-American, according to the state’s public health department. Most of those communities are largely concentrated in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs. The county currently has the most confirmed cases in the entire country, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And, in early April, Cook County Jail became one of the country’s largest coronavirus clusters, with more than 1,000 infections among inmates and staff and six deaths. These concerns were always top of mind, Dr. Ezike said. Before becoming Illinois’s health director, she spent 15 years at the Cook County Department of Public Health and was the medical director of the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center so she had seen the gaping socioeconomic disparities between communities and how that gap can have a knock-on impact on health care access. “This virus didn’t create health disparities,” she said. “It’s just magnifying them.” From the outset, she had her eye trained on the most vulnerable, including essential workers, many of whom are from minority communities. She has incorporated their needs into all of the state’s response proposals, from getting P.P.E. to those who need it most to providing targeted messaging and information. Dr. Ezike herself delivers her updates during the daily news conference in English and Spanish. The virus has touched Dr. Ezike’s own circle, too: Extended-family members and family members of her co-workers have been infected, she said. In February, before the coronavirus upended the world as we knew it, Dr. Ezike lost her father, an immigrant from Nigeria who spent most of his life in Los Angeles. “I did bury him. We had very elaborate ceremonies for him in three cities and two continents,” she said over the phone. She added: “But I think about how people can’t do that now and how difficult that can be. I think about that every time I think of the deaths we are reporting each day.” What else is happening Here are three articles from The Times you may have missed. Irina Krush in Brooklyn, NY.Sasha Maslov for The New York Times “I didn’t want to just die at home alone.” Irina Krush, a chess star and the only woman to earn the title of grandmaster while playing for the U.S., endured a difficult recovery from Covid-19. But in that time of suffering, she thrived in competition and received a flood of support from the chess community. [Read the story] “This is a once-in-a-career opportunity, to be on the ground floor of something like this.” Sarah Aubrey, after years of producing films and television shows, has taken on a new role: head of original programming at HBO Max, the new streaming platform that was built to take on Netflix. [Read the story] “This is a huge win, especially for women and minorities of smaller stature.” The Air Force has removed its minimum height requirement for prospective pilots in a move designed to attract more diverse applicants, particularly women. [Read the story] Save the date On Thursday, May 28, the Women’s Forum for the Economy & Society will host a series of virtual discussions on designing an inclusive recovery that puts women at the center. The programme will kick off at 8 a.m. EST. Speakers include Caroline Criado Perez, author of “Invisible Women,” and Marlène Schiappa, French minister for gender equality. Jessica Bennett, New York Times editor at large, will moderate a conversation with teen activists, and Francesca Donner, New York Times gender director, will sit down with Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, executive director of U.N. Women. Sign up here. In Her Words is written by Alisha Haridasani Gupta and edited by Francesca Donner. Our art director is Catherine Gilmore-Barnes, and our photo editor is Sandra Stevenson. Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here to get future installments. You can also follow us on Instagram or email us at inherwords@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for In Her Words from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The Times |Get The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your Email|Privacy Policy|Contact Us The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018