Friday, January 21, 2022

On Politics: What mattered this week

January 21, 2022

President Biden defended his record during a two-hour news conference this week, while also taking repeated bites of humble pie.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Democrats in disarray

It was another difficult stretch for Democrats. Their voting rights bills ran into a wall in the Senate, provoking angry sniping within their own ranks. Things got so heated that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had to remind her unruly caucus members to "be respectful" of their colleagues.

Elsewhere, the contours of the 2022 midterms grew more clearly defined. Candidates in the year's marquee races for governor flaunted big fund-raising numbers, while Democrats running in primaries for congressional seats edged away from Washington.

And, perhaps most importantly, the White House overhauled its political strategy as the president marked his first year in office.

Biden hits the reset button

There's a ritual for unpopular presidents that goes something like this: Trudge out in front of the White House press corps and let reporters bat you around for a while. Tell them you're aware of the discontent throughout the country. That you get it. That you aren't satisfied with the way things are going either.

Maybe you just need to explain your policies better. Maybe you've been consulting with outside advisers. Maybe you have a plan to turn things around, to get out of the Washington bubble.

This week, President Biden, polling in the low 40s and stymied on Capitol Hill, followed the script more faithfully than most. During a two-hour news conference, he defended his record but also took repeated bites of humble pie:

"I know there's a lot of frustration and fatigue in this country."

"I call it a job not yet finished."

"Look, we're not there yet, but we will get there."

"I understand the overwhelming frustration, fear and concern with regard to inflation and Covid. I get it."

"I've made many mistakes, I'm sure."

Another way to read Biden's remarks: a plea for patience.

"Voters have this false sense of immediacy, and that has created this expectation that things can be solved in a very short period of time," said Silas Lee, a Democratic pollster who worked on the Biden campaign in 2020. "You have to manage expectations."

As our colleagues noted in a White House memo this week, Biden is also planning another tried-and-true Washington tactic: distancing himself from Congress.

And while it might be hard for "President Senator" to let go of a place he served for four decades, Democrats told us it's a political necessity:

"He has vast power in the regulatory, law enforcement and foreign policy realms," Paul Begala, a Democratic consultant, said. "He can do a lot without Congress."
"Biden needs to grab control of the conversation by utilizing fully the latent powers of the executive branch," said Jeff Hauser, director of the Revolving Door Project.
"He's a creature of the Senate and he needs to leave the Senate behind," said John Morgan, a Florida trial lawyer and a top donor to Biden. "He should never go back."

Abortion rights groups shift on the filibuster

In June, Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona published an Op-Ed in The Washington Post arguing that it would be a mistake for Democrats to ditch the filibuster. What if, she asked, Republicans defunded "women's reproductive health services" — e.g., Planned Parenthood — once they took back the Senate?

At the time, Sinema was speaking for many in the abortion rights community, which quietly opposed eliminating a tool that could stop federal laws restricting abortion from passing by 51-vote majorities.

This week, in a striking shift, several powerful abortion rights groups loudly rejected Sinema's argument. To varying degrees, Emily's List, NARAL, Planned Parenthood and the Center for Reproductive Rights all said they supported changing the filibuster to pass voting rights legislation.

Melissa Murray, a law professor at New York University who studies women's movements, described the change in their stance as a recognition that these groups now see "abortion rights and the scaffolding of democracy to be intertwined." It was no coincidence, she said, that "the states that have been most aggressive in limiting the right to vote are the very same states that have the most aggressive abortion laws."

Democrats turn on their own

Progressives in the House and Senate have long railed against Sinema and her fellow pro-filibuster Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia. What's new is that Democratic candidates in red states are following suit.

A recent fund-raising email from Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat running for Senate in Ohio, read that "Joe Manchin killed Build Back Better" and blamed Sinema's vote against filibuster reform for "killing our chance to pass voting rights." And then it asked for campaign contributions to expand the Democratic majority.

"Tim has always been clear that he'll work with anyone, and stand up to anyone — including members of his own party — to make our government work better for working people here in Ohio," Ryan's spokesperson, Izzi Levy, told us.

Ryan is the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination — he doesn't need to prove his progressive bona fides to win a primary before launching into a more centrist statewide campaign.

But it's not just Ryan. In Iowa, former Representative Abby Finkenauer, a front-runner in the Democratic primary to take on Senator Chuck Grassley, called Sinema a "sellout." And Stacey Abrams, who's virtually guaranteed to win the Democratic nomination for governor in Georgia, lumped Manchin and Sinema with the Senate Republican conference: "52 Senators — two Democrats and all Republicans — failed their voters."

A Democratic ad takes on inflation

The subtext of an ad for Alex Lasry, running for a U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin, seems to be that he can win over voters who have soured on Biden.Lasry for Wisconsin

An ad from the crowded Democratic Senate primary in Wisconsin caught our attention this week for showing how candidates might distance themselves from an unpopular president.

The spot, by Alex Lasry, a Milwaukee Bucks executive, doesn't shy away from the economic problems pulling down Biden's poll numbers: supply-chain shortages and surging inflation. Lasry calls for keeping manufacturing jobs in the United States, a proposal in keeping with the state's long tradition of populism.

"That's exactly how we built the Bucks Arena," he says in the ad, "by having 80 percent of the materials come from Wisconsin" and "paying higher wages." For good measure, he adds that he'd "finally stand up to China," too.

Lasry is one of four Democrats leading the primary field, which also includes Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

The subtext of his pitch seems to be that he's the one who can win over voters who have soured on Biden — a bold move since midterms tend to be a referendum on the party in power.

What to read

In a first for the Biden administration's new Election Threats Task Force, the Justice Department charged a Texas man with publicly calling for the assassination of Georgia's election officials on the day before the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, Reid J. Epstein reports.
Joe Biden is no F.D.R., Nate Cohn says. "The decision to prioritize the goals of his party's activist base over the issues prioritized by voters is more reminiscent of the last half-century of politically unsuccessful Democratic presidents," he writes.
In Opinion, Ezra Klein spoke at length with Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff.
At the March for Life in Washington, Kate Zernike and Madeleine Ngo found that the annual anti-abortion rally "took on the tone of a celebration" this year as protesters "anticipated the Supreme Court overturning the decision that established a constitutional right to abortion half a century ago."

The White House chief of staff, Ron Klain, gave interviews to discuss Biden's first year in office.Doug Mills/The New York Times

Klain steps into the klieg lights

We'll regularly feature work by Doug Mills, The Times's longtime White House photographer and a two-time Pulitzer Prize winner. Here's what Doug had to say about capturing the shot above:

I stuck around last night outside the White House and took photos of Biden's chief of staff, Ron Klain, as he did a round of interviews on the anniversary of Biden taking office. Klain, a backstage operator so powerful that some aides jokingly refer to him as the "prime minister," is someone we rarely see. He almost never goes to White House events, and if he does, he's always wearing a mask.

Thanks for reading. We'll see you on Monday.

— Blake & Leah

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Thursday, January 20, 2022

On Politics: Winning Virginia was the easy part. Can Glenn Youngkin govern?

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January 20, 2022

By Leah Askarinam and Blake Hounshell

Mr. Youngkin has issued two executive orders aimed at the G.O.P. base: one banning critical race theory and the other banning school mask mandates.Stephanie Klein-Davis for The New York Times

The Youngkin model

Glenn Youngkin's winning bid for governor of Virginia last year was closely scrutinized by both parties for signs of what was to come in 2022.

Now, as the Republican begins his work in Richmond, he's still under the microscope.

The governor made big promises on school choice and public safety. He drew in voters from across the spectrum, even the temperamental ex-president. He channeled suburban voters' frustrations over masking and remote schooling and gave voice to conservatives' fears about what students were learning in the classroom.

He has a lot of people to please.

"What he's got for the first time in a very long time is a lot of energy about school choice, about alternatives, about accountability, about public safety and the classrooms that I've just not seen in 30 years that I've been in government service," said Bob McDonnell, Virginia's last Republican governor.

The base appeal

So far, Youngkin's conservative base appears happy.

The governor has issued two executive orders that conservatives have cheered: one banning school mask mandates and the other banning critical race theory, the academic framework that has become a catchall term for conservatives who are critical of how schools teach about racism.

The first executive order pledges to end "the use of inherently divisive concepts, including Critical Race Theory, and to raise academic standards." It also calls for a review of resources for educators and ends a state initiative in math that Youngkin had criticized as a "left-wing takeover of public education."

The second order aims to end a school mask mandate put in place by Youngkin's predecessor, Ralph Northam. "Parents should have the ability to decide whether their child should wear masks for the duration of the school day," it reads.

It's not clear whether the order can actually be enforced, however, given that it conflicts with existing state law requiring schools to follow C.D.C. guidelines. But that may be less important to Trump voters who were once skeptical of Youngkin.

They are "ecstatic with his opening week," said John Fredericks, a radio talk show host who chaired Trump's 2016 and 2020 campaigns in Virginia. "Right now, from my perspective, he's Trump in a red vest."

The olive branch

Part of Youngkin's first address to the General Assembly seemed to be aimed at appealing to Democrats who want to see more school funding.

"We're going to start by investing in Virginia classrooms," he said. "Education is the key to opportunity, the means by which all children and their parents can realize their greatest dreams."

He asked for $150 million to form 20 new charter schools, and proposed the creation of lab schools that would partner with Virginia's universities.

And while Republican governors in other states have angered voters by slashing funding for education, Youngkin said he wanted to sign a budget with bipartisan buy-in that sets a "record investment in education including a significant boost in teacher pay."

Democrats: No, thanks

The response among Democrats has been a combination of skepticism and outrage.

L. Louise Lucas, the president pro tempore of the State Senate, criticized Republicans for promoting "bad legislation" in a video celebrated by many on the left.

"We have a couple other bills here that we really don't like," she said, crumpling up a piece of paper. "And this is what we intend to do with them — put them in the trash can."

Schuyler VanValkenburg, a teacher and state delegate, called Youngkin's push for privatization and charter schools a "standard, conservative right-wing educational policy."

And though he thought he could find common ground with Youngkin on issues like prioritizing in-person learning and raising academic standards, "the executive orders kind of undercut those claims to both of those things," he said.

As for the mask order, school districts in Northern Virginia immediately pushed back. Parents from one school district have already sued over it, and Democratic state legislators promised more lawsuits if the administration withholds funding to force schools to comply. The state P.T.A. released a statement maintaining its support for continuing to follow C.D.C. guidelines.

Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers and a supporter of Terry McAuliffe, the defeated Democratic candidate, said she was baffled that Youngkin repealed the mask mandate in the middle of the Omicron surge. The move led to "more confusion and more angst and more divisiveness," she said.

Youngkin's executive order on critical race theory, she said, could have a "chilling effect" on teachers by constraining their ability to teach history and current events.

Like others who have criticized Youngkin's order, Weingarten noted that it's simply not in the curriculum. "But," she asked, "why then do it?"

Bipartisan dreams?

Youngkin says he plans to pump record amounts of funding into Virginia schools. When combined with his calls to put parents firmly in charge of their children's education, Republicans see in his approach a new model that can transcend longstanding left-right divides.

"There's something for everybody to like about that message — more money and more accountability," McDonnell said.

Weingarten said that if Youngkin refocuses on items like teacher pay and school funding, he could expect bipartisan support on his agenda. But she's skeptical.

"I think Youngkin was trying to prove that there is a new Republican Party when it comes to education — that they are going to invest in public schools, they're going to pay teachers more. And he pretended that he was going to care about public schooling, not just about privatization," she said.

For some conservatives, that kind of friction is part of the appeal.

Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who has urged Republicans to stoke voter anger over concepts like critical race theory, said that Youngkin was already "setting a new paradigm of cultural war as public policy."

What to read tonight

Two Trump-related investigations made news on Thursday. In Washington, the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot asked Ivanka Trump to cooperate with its inquiry. And in Atlanta, the district attorney asked to convene a special grand jury to help investigate allegations of interference in the 2020 election.
Our colleagues in the Opinion desk conducted a focus group with 14 independent voters — who said they are not impressed with President Biden's first year in office. "Asked what they held Mr. Biden responsible for and what they would tell him if they had the chance, the independents emphasized energy prices, the economy and the importance of being a moderate, as well as a desire to avoid Covid mandates and lockdowns," Patrick Healy and Adrian J. Rivera write.
Biden plans an aggressive shift in strategy in the coming weeks, The Times's White House team reports. His advisers are urging him to pull back from a "president-senator" role that has mired him in endless, unproductive negotiations with Congress.

PULSE

Is Trump losing his edge with G.O.P. voters?

Buried in a new survey published today is a fascinating nugget that suggests the Republican Party may not be as devoted to Trump as we've long assumed.

Roughly every month for the last several years, pollsters for NBC News have asked: "Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party?"

Over most of that time, Republicans have replied that they saw themselves as Trump supporters first. But the lines crossed beginning in January of last year — and as of this month, 56 percent of G.O.P. voters said that they considered themselves more as Republicans, while only 36 percent said they identified more as Trump supporters.

What's going on here?

It's hard to say why Republicans seem to be weaning themselves from the former president, but we can venture a guess. Two things happened last January: Trump left office and became less of a daily presence in Americans' lives; and rioters claiming to act on his behalf stormed the Capitol, damaging his image.

Other surveys suggest many on the right are looking for fresh options in 2024. For instance, just 56 percent of Republicans want Trump to run for president again, according to the latest AP-NORC poll.

Whatever the reasons behind the shift among G.O.P. voters, it's safe to say that Trump's potential primary rivals are watching these numbers closely.

Doug Chayka's illustration, showing a gavel inscribed with the text of the 14th Amendment knocking Donald Trump on the head, didn't make it into Wednesday's newsletter because of a technical snafu. View it online here.

Thanks for reading. We'll see you tomorrow.