Trump Reverts, Biden’s V.P. Search: This Week in the 2020 Race

President Trump’s more sober messaging on the coronavirus crisis didn’t last long. For Joe Biden, the search for a running mate may last a little longer.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story August 1, 2020 By Annie Karni and Astead W. Herndon Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. appears to be giving himself an extension to complete his ticket.Michelle V. Agins/The New York Times The week in numbers Less than 100 days before the election, President Trump’s approval rating is stuck deep in the red. Gallup updated its approval tracker this week, showing Trump 15 points down. His approval rating on the coronavirus is even weaker (–21), according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. A Monmouth University poll of Georgia, traditionally a red state, showed a dead heat, with Trump and Joe Biden each receiving 47 percent support from registered voters. Polls of Arizona, Florida and North Carolina showed Biden with an edge in each of those states, all of which Trump won four years ago. Biden spent $11.8 million on television ads, while Trump spent $4.7 million. Trump’s campaign pulled its TV ads for six days, briefly bringing its spending to $0 nationwide, as the new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, conducted a “review” of the ad strategy. On Facebook, Trump again outspent Biden, roughly $4.2 million to just under $810,000. Catch me up President Trump’s approval rating remains underwater.Al Drago for The New York Times If last week was billed by White House officials as a new direction for Mr. Trump — an attempt to stabilize his sinking approval rating by appearing to take the coronavirus crisis more seriously — this week is the one we all knew would inevitably follow, when his id took back the steering wheel. Gone was the new message about the importance of wearing masks, or any sustained focus on what he claims is fast progress toward a vaccine. On Thursday, Mr. Trump suggested for the first time that the election could be delayed — a move some of his own former advisers described as a feeble attempt to get ahead of a potential loss in November. Earlier, Mr. Trump defended his decision to retweet a claim that hydroxychloroquine was a “cure” for the virus and that masks were unnecessary. “They’re very respected doctors,” he said, referring to a woman who has also promoted videos claiming doctors make medicine using DNA from aliens. “There was a woman who was spectacular in her statements about it, and she’s had tremendous success with it.” And he made an appeal to white suburban voters by trying to stir up racist fears about low-income housing and the people who live there. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT In short, it’s nearly four years in, and we know there’s never a new tone, just short periods of quiet before the president once again reveals his baser instincts. Mourning Herman Cain, but avoiding reality Herman Cain in 2012, when he ran for the Republican presidential nomination.Monica Lopossay for The New York Times This week brought the grim reality that few close to the president wanted to acknowledge: that failing to strictly follow precautions against the coronavirus, like wearing masks and practicing social distancing, could have dire personal consequences. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Herman Cain, a former Republican presidential candidate who served as a chairman of Black Voices for Trump, died Thursday because of complications from the virus, weeks after attending Mr. Trump’s indoor rally in Tulsa, Okla. It had been a loaded setting and date — the weekend of Juneteenth, as protests over the death of George Floyd spread across the country — and the president needed as many Black supporters in attendance as he could muster. Mr. Trump tweeted his condolences, calling Mr. Cain “an American patriot, and great friend.” Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, said in a statement that Mr. Cain “represented the very best of the American spirit.” There was no nod to the reality that Mr. Cain may have put himself at greater risk because he was trying to be a good soldier for Mr. Trump. Inside the Tulsa arena, Mr. Cain posted selfies showing him sitting with other Black Trump supporters, none of whom wore masks. It was an outcome that few in Trumpworld wanted to bear a measure of responsibility for. One campaign adviser said Thursday he hoped no one would “politicize” Mr. Cain’s death, and noted that it was impossible to tell where someone might have contracted the virus. The campaign did not respond to a request for comment about Mr. Cain’s attendance at the rally. Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to circle Mr. Trump: His national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, became the latest and most senior member of the administration to test positive for the coronavirus. Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of Mr. Trump’s eldest son and a top fund-raising official for the re-election campaign, has received a clean bill of health since her positive test for the coronavirus this month. And she’s already been spotted back at the White House. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT A rarity: Obama goes there Former President Barack Obama eulogized Representative John Lewis in Atlanta.Pool photo by Alyssa Pointer To describe former President Barack Obama’s public statements about his successor as carefully crafted is an understatement. Each word is considered, each jab measured exactly, as Mr. Obama balances the weight of his global prominence with his desire to let the current leaders of the Democratic Party chart their own course. On Thursday, however, he leaned all the way in. No more flowery Medium posts. Delivering the eulogy for John Lewis, the civil rights giant and Atlanta congressman, Mr. Obama gave his full treatise on the current political moment, laying out policy priorities and a searing critique of Mr. Trump without ever saying his name. It was the type of anti-Trump counterprogramming that many of Mr. Obama’s supporters have wanted to see for years. It also represented a soft evolution from the former president, who embraced several ideas that he had not endorsed while in the White House. Consider what he backed, and his history: Mr. Obama made a spirited call for election reforms, including making Election Day a national holiday and restoring the Voting Rights Act, which was neutered in 2013 by the Supreme Court. During his presidency, Mr. Obama at times downplayed the impact of voter suppression, focusing more on voter apathy. He has focused more on suppression efforts in recent years, as has his party. Mr. Obama called the Senate filibuster a “Jim Crow relic,” his strongest comments against the 60-vote procedural threshold that has stopped major legislation by both parties. His words contradict then-Senator Obama and then-President Obama, who shied from filibuster elimination efforts from the party’s progressive base. He even gained a new convert: Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont endorsed filibuster elimination after Mr. Obama’s comments, a reversal for the former presidential candidate. On the filibuster, Mr. Obama’s transition subtly mimics Mr. Biden’s. As a longtime Delaware senator, Mr. Biden rejected the idea of eliminating the filibuster. However, in recent comments at a Democratic fund-raiser, he signaled an openness if Republican obstruction precluded reforms. The Obama-Biden mind meld continues. Veepstakes is finally here (kind of) At long last, the month is August, and Mr. Biden’s self-imposed time frame for a vice-presidential selection has arrived. There are only two caveats: All indications are that he is going to give himself an extension, and we are barely closer to knowing the selection — or even the finalists — than at the start of July. Supporters of possible candidates have made public and private cases for their favorites, and Mr. Biden’s campaign has fueled speculation by holding events with several contenders. Two candidates have more recently moved toward the top of Mr. Biden’s list: Representative Karen Bass of California and Susan E. Rice, the former national security adviser. Here’s what we know (and what we don’t): Mr. Biden’s selection will be historic: Although he made clear months ago that he would select a woman, the history-making possibility of a female vice president should not be underplayed. Given that Mr. Biden might choose a woman of color, the glass ceiling could crack two times over. Mr. Biden wants a governing partner: So much is made about what the selection could mean for the November outcome, but that is likely not the most important factor. Mr. Biden saw himself as a complementary piece to Mr. Obama’s administration, and will be looking for someone with whom he has a personal rapport. Much of his decision will come down to things that are hard to quantify in strictly political terms. It’s more vibes than science. Mr. Biden will be shaping future primaries: It is unclear whether Mr. Biden’s choice will shape the race against Mr. Trump, but the selection could have an imprint on Democratic presidential politics going forward. If Mr. Biden wins, his vice president will have a huge national platform to define and expand her political brand, much as Mr. Biden did under Mr. Obama. This could put her in pole position to dominate the party’s more moderate wing after Mr. Biden. Being No. 2 is a low-risk, high-reward position, particularly for someone who would be the first woman ever to hold the office. What you might have missed Susan E. Rice, the former national security adviser, is a top candidate to be Mr. Biden’s running mate.Mark Humphrey/Associated Press Ms. Rice once considered running against Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Now she’s a candidate to be Mr. Biden’s running mate. If she doesn’t get chosen, she’s still open to running for office — maybe even for Senate in Washington, D.C., if it becomes a state. Mr. Biden released the fourth piece of his “Build Back Better” economic proposal, an effort to show that racial justice is integral to his policy vision. It promises to “leverage more than $150 billion in new capital and opportunities for small businesses that have been structurally excluded for generations.” Mr. Trump faces several problems in Michigan, a state he carried in 2016 by only 10,704 votes. His campaign has now pulled ads from the state’s airwaves almost entirely. Giovanni Russonello contributed reporting. Thanks for reading. On Politics is your guide to the political news cycle, delivering clarity from the chaos. Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics with Lisa Lerer from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. 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On Politics Poll Watch: Will Americans Buy Trump’s Voting Fraud Claims?

Americans support mail voting, but they also appear to be susceptible to misinformation about it.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story July 31, 2020 By Giovanni Russonello Welcome to Poll Watch, our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election. President Trump on Thursday railed against expanding access to mail-in voting, and even floated the idea that the election could be postponed, something he has no legal authority to do. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Top Republicans were quick to dismiss the suggestion of putting off Election Day — but Democrats went further, calling it evidence that the president would stop at nothing to throw doubt on the validity of an election that he currently appears likely to lose. At this moment of coronavirus-driven insecurity, where do Americans stand on voting by mail? And how many might be persuaded, as the president argues, that the election’s very legitimacy is in doubt? Recent polling shows that Americans now overwhelmingly support universal access to mail-in voting. In national surveys from the past few months, all taken after Mr. Trump began attacking the idea as dangerous, upward of six in 10 respondents have said that they would favor making absentee voting universally available. But surveys also reflect how susceptible many people’s opinions can be to misinformation, when it comes to matters of fraud and vote security. For instance, 49 percent of Americans said in an ABC News/Washington Post poll in mid-July that mail-in voting was “vulnerable to significant levels of fraud.” That lines up cleanly with a Gallup poll from April that showed 49 percent of Americans thought expanding access to mail-in ballots would increase the prevalence of voter fraud. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT This despite the fact that studies have consistently proved voter fraud to be exceedingly rare — including in the five states that now conduct all their voting by mail. Lines tend to be longer in cities and other areas with particularly high rates of African-American and Latino voters — meaning that it is not always easy for people in these places to successfully cast ballots in person. If Mr. Trump were to successfully beat back access to absentee ballots, proponents of voting rights worry that it could disenfranchise these communities in particular. Republican state legislatures throughout the country have enacted a variety of voting restrictions since 2013, when the Supreme Court rolled back the Voting Rights Act. The Brennan Center for Justice, a pro-democracy watchdog group, has determined that in the past decade, 25 states have passed laws making it harder to cast a ballot. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Amid the pandemic, those problems have often become especially acute — particularly in states like Wisconsin and Georgia, where voters in many precincts during this year’s primaries were forced to wait in line for hours after Republican officials in both states resisted expanding access to absentee voting. In many primaries, “the polling places were dramatically underequipped — there were far too few of them and there were fewer resources than needed,” said Wendy Weiser, who runs the democracy program at the Brennan Center. “We saw the problems compounded in more populous areas, and even more in urban areas that have higher concentrations of Black and brown voters.” But for now, it is primarily Republicans who have internalized Mr. Trump’s arguments about the dangers of mail voting — meaning that they, not Democrats, may be more likely to risk voting in person in November. The recent ABC/Post poll found that only 28 percent of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s supporters saw mail voting as vulnerable to substantial fraud, whereas 78 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters did. In a similar vein, while a slight majority of Mr. Biden’s backers said mail ballots would be their preferred method of voting this year, only 17 percent of Trump’s supporters said the same. Republican arguments about voter fraud are nothing new, and neither is the trend of Republican worries outpacing Democrats’ concerns. Four years ago, despite evidence to the contrary, seven in 10 Trump supporters thought that voter fraud was common, according to an ABC/Post poll taken on the eve of the 2016 election. This has led some observers to wonder whether, in areas where in-person voting during the pandemic becomes difficult or even impossible, Trump-driven skepticism about mail voting could disproportionately drive down Republican participation. “Maybe it’s an unintended consequence of what he’s saying,” said Amber McReynolds, who runs the National Vote at Home Institute and Coalition, a nonpartisan group devoted to expanding access to the ballot. “He’s assuming that his impact is on everybody, but it’s actually hurting his voters, probably. And the data shows that, because we’re seeing a decline in vote-by-mail requests among Republicans.” “He’s suppressing those that listen to him,” she added. Throughout the primaries, as Mr. Trump railed against the dangers of voting by mail, Democratic requests for mail-in ballots far exceeded Republican ones. Forty-one states already allow all voters to vote by mail, and seven of those send ballots to voters regardless of whether they request one, according to the Brennan Center. Ms. Weiser said that even if the general election in November were carried out relatively successfully, Mr. Trump’s habit of questioning the country’s electoral system could have far-reaching consequences. “His broad campaign to discredit the legitimacy of American elections, to say they’re rigged, to say that vote-by-mail is given to fraud — it will split America, and it will also be damaging to our elections and our standing in the world,” she said. Indeed, many Americans say they are more worried about false information being spread about elections than they are about illegitimate votes being cast. In January, months before Mr. Trump amped up his attacks on voting by mail, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll presented Americans with five factors that might pose a threat to “keeping voting safe and accurate.” Of those five options, Americans were most likely to say that misleading information was the biggest threat to the democratic process. Independent voters were particularly likely to be worried about being misinformed. RECOMMENDED READING Doug Mills/The New York Times   Why Trump Has No Power to Delay the 2020 Election We answer some key questions about holding elections in a crisis. And no, the president cannot cancel an election on his own. By Alexander Burns Charlie Riedel/Associated Press   Republicans and White House at Odds Over Kansas Senate Race Some in the G.O.P. want President Trump to endorse the opponent of Kris Kobach, who they worry could cost them a traditionally safe Senate seat. So far, the White House has declined to do so. By Jonathan Martin and Katie Glueck Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for On Politics with Lisa Lerer from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018