Monday, June 22, 2020

On Politics: Will the Next A.O.C. Emerge on Tuesday?

Democrats will be closely watching two primary races tomorrow as a test of progressive energy.
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By Lisa Lerer

Politics Newsletter Writer

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

   

With some notable exceptions (ahem, A.O.C.), progressive challengers haven’t had the best track record of winning Democratic primaries.

That may change this week.

Primary elections in New York and Kentucky tomorrow will provide a big test of how Democratic politics are shifting amid a pandemic, an economic crisis and an uproar over racial injustice.

In 2018, progressives nabbed some high-profile victories — including those by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and her “squad” — but lost far more than they won.

The path for progressives hasn’t gotten any easier in 2020. Three liberal House candidates who captured a lot of attention — Jessica Cisneros in Texas, Robert Emmons in Illinois and Morgan Harper in Ohio — lost their primary contests.

Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, a squad member, faces a stiff primary rematch against Brenda Jones, the Detroit City Council president, who lost by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2018. In Massachusetts, Senator Ed Markey, who is backed by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and other progressive groups, is being outpolled by his primary challenger, Representative Joe Kennedy III.

And, of course, Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren lost their primary bids to Joe Biden.

But that was in the Before Times. Now, with crises roiling the country, progressive candidates are seeing their message of structural change amplified.

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“The pandemic and the protests have increased the desire for aggressive and bolder politics,” said Faiz Shakir, who was Mr. Sanders’s campaign manager. “You have some compelling candidates in the right places who are seizing the moment and meeting the need.”

Stumbles on racial issues have already hurt some establishment candidates. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado, who is running for the Senate, apologized this month for answering a question about the Black Lives Matter protests by saying the phrase meant “every life matters” — a common conservative response. He now faces a tighter-than-expected primary on June 30 against Andrew Romanoff, the former state House speaker.

And Representative Eliot Engel of New York, a Democrat who has served in Congress for more than three decades, was caught on a recording this month asking to speak at a news conference in the Bronx devoted to Black Lives Matter: “If I didn’t have a primary,” he said, “I wouldn’t care.”

Mr. Engel, 73, faces a serious challenge in tomorrow’s primary from Jamaal Bowman, 44, a Bronx school principal recruited by the Justice Democrats — the same progressive organization that coordinated Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s surprise defeat of Joseph Crowley two years ago. Liberals hope the race will be a repeat of that contest. But unlike then, when Mr. Crowley skipped a debate against Ms. Ocasio-Cortez just 10 days before the primary, no one is being caught unaware.

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As my colleague Jesse McKinley wrote, money and marquee endorsements have been flying in the final days of the race. And unlike Mr. Crowley, Mr. Engel hasn’t been shy about attacking his challenger.

In Kentucky, Amy McGrath, a retired Marine fighter pilot who earned a national following from her close House race in 2018, faces a tightening challenge from Charles Booker, a 35-year-old state representative and unabashed progressive. Mr. Booker was tear-gassed by the police at a recent protest.

As my colleague Jonathan Martin detailed over the weekend, Ms. McGrath, 45, has the cash, raising nearly $41 million to Mr. Booker’s $788,000 as of June 1. But Mr. Booker is catching up in polling, and his crowds have grown in the lead-up to tomorrow’s vote.

Either candidate will face an uphill battle against Senator Mitch McConnell. But the contest is deeply symbolic for Democrats, many of whom detest Mr. McConnell, the Senate majority leader. Making the senator spend money in his home state would thrill party leaders.

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Democrats will be carefully watching both contests tomorrow night for clues on what the future may hold for their party, particularly if they can no longer rally around the unifying force of their hatred for President Trump in the next midterm elections.

They may be watching for a while: With skyrocketing requests for absentee ballots, limited in-person voting and the likelihood of long lines to accommodate social distancing, neither race is expected to return results for several days — if not weeks.

Drop us a line!

Last week, we marked three months since the pandemic and the shutdown orders restructured our lives.

Since then, the president hosted an indoor rally, though a lot of seats were empty. New cases continue to surge in 22 states, especially in the West and the South, even as more places open for business. And I just found out that I’m probably working from home until 2021. …

So, it’s been a day.

How’s it going with you? Are you happy with how the government is responding to the continuing crisis? What about your schools, offices, friends and family?

We want to hear it. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. (Don’t forget to include your name and where you live so we can publish your responses.)

… Seriously

The internet cannot resist President Trump’s rally speech. Ted Mosby … er, Josh Radnor … turned it into a folk ballad. (It works! Weirdly.)

Representative Ted Lieu, Democrat of California, cut a re-election ad. He drinks water. Fin.

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