With the nation gripped by protests over racial inequality, the pressure on Joseph R. Biden Jr. to pick a black woman as his running mate has been steadily growing. |
The analysis, released Thursday, is based on interviews with over 2,000 people who voted in early Democratic primaries and caucuses. When asked to name their preferred vice-presidential nominee, most identified a black candidate. |
Senator Kamala Harris was far and away the most popular pick, chosen by more than a quarter of respondents. |
It should be noted that Monmouth did not interview a representative sample of Democratic voters nationwide, let alone the general electorate. The study’s respondents most likely skew toward more engaged and heavily partisan Democrats, given that all of them cast a primary vote, most of them in Iowa or New Hampshire. |
Still, Monmouth’s survey contained at least one striking finding that seemed to carry broader implications: Ms. Harris’s support ran strongly among Democrats of various political persuasions. She was a top choice even among voters who had supported Senators Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar for the presidential nomination — even though both of those lawmakers have also been on Mr. Biden’s vice-presidential shortlist. |
Ms. Warren and Ms. Klobuchar were the runners-up in the Monmouth survey, but even with their totals combined, Ms. Harris outpaced them. |
Ms. Klobuchar, once seen as a top prospect, announced late Thursday that she had withdrawn her name from consideration — and that she had urged Mr. Biden to choose a woman of color for the ticket. Ms. Klobuchar had come under heavy criticism in recent weeks for declining to press charges against a number of police officers who were involved in shootings when she was a prosecutor in Minneapolis. |
Choosing Ms. Harris as a running mate “could feed an enthusiasm about Biden that he doesn’t currently have,” Patrick Murray, who runs Monmouth’s polling operation, said in an interview. “How would this play among independents? I don’t know. But certainly among the core group of Democratic voters, it would be a home run for him.” |
A Fox News poll in late March asked registered voters how they would vote in November if Mr. Biden had Ms. Warren on the ticket with him, and then if he had Ms. Harris. It found little significant difference between the results, in any demographic. Mr. Biden led President Trump, 50 percent to 42 percent, with Ms. Harris on the ticket, and 52 percent to 42 percent with Ms. Warren beside him. |
Other black contenders mentioned by a sizable number of Monmouth respondents included the former Georgia legislator Stacey Abrams and Representative Val B. Demings of Florida. Some other possible running mates, including the former national security adviser Susan E. Rice and Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta, were named by considerably fewer people. |
The Monmouth study was conducted in early June, as anti-racism protests flared across the country. There’s little doubt that the public’s sharpened focus on race probably pushed some voters toward supporting an African-American contender. But the Democratic electorate has for years been growing broadly more concerned about matters of racial justice, which are likely to figure prominently into the remainder of the campaign. |
And Democratic voters don’t just see choosing a black running mate as the virtuous thing to do — they consider it good strategy, too. Of the Democratic primary voters who spoke to Monmouth researchers, roughly three in five said they thought picking a woman of color would help Mr. Biden’s chances in November. |
That part matters: Since the start of the primary campaign, Democratic voters have said their main focus is on beating President Trump in the general election. A presumption that Mr. Biden was the safe and electable choice sat at the heart of his appeal to many primary voters. |
Mr. Biden holds a sizable lead over Mr. Trump in most head-to-head polls, including a national Fox News survey released Thursday, which found the former vice president with a 12-point advantage. |
But Democrats are not yet as enthusiastic about Mr. Biden’s candidacy as they have been about many past nominees at this point in the race, and with a pandemic keeping him mostly off the campaign trail, Democratic voters are looking for reassurance that the Biden campaign is making wise and winning decisions. The choosing of a running mate is a prime opportunity to make that case. |
Mr. Biden pledged during the primary battle that he would choose a woman as his running mate, and his campaign is in the midst of vetting close to a dozen contenders. |
In April, black women across the country signed on to a public letter making the case that the vice-presidential nominee should be an African-American. “It is a fact that the road to the White House is powered by Black women and Black women are the key to a Democratic victory in 2020,” they wrote. “Black women are not only the most loyal voters for the Democratic Party — we are key to igniting Black voters across all demographics to show up in record numbers.” |
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had the overwhelming support of black voters, but they did not turn out in nearly the same numbers they had for Barack Obama four years earlier. This contributed to her Electoral College defeat. |
While Mr. Biden leaned heavily on support from black voters in the primary election, polls thus far have shown that he still has significant room to grow if he wants to outpace Mrs. Clinton’s numbers among this group. He shows particular weakness among younger African-Americans. |
But if black voters make up a crucial part of the Democratic base, so do liberals. These voters have long been wary of the relatively moderate Mr. Biden, and some recent polls have shown that as many as one-third of liberals expressed a negative view of him. |
And naming a candidate such as Ms. Harris or Ms. Demings, both of whom held prominent roles in law enforcement before coming to Washington, could be a letdown to some on the left — particularly at a moment when the role of the police in society is coming under intense public scrutiny. |
Until recently, polls tended to suggest that Ms. Warren was the most popular vice-presidential contender among Democratic voters. A presidential hopeful turned Biden confidante, Ms. Warren has the trust of many liberals — and in the primary she earned some of her strongest support from female and suburban voters, groups that Democrats consider crucial to a win in November. |
Ms. Warren’s +57 net favorability rating among liberals in a CNN poll last month was considerably better than Ms. Harris’s (+42). But more respondents said they had yet to make up their minds one way or the other about Ms. Harris. |
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