On Politics: The veep curse
Good evening. Tonight, my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick has a look at why it's so difficult for sitting vice presidents to succeed their bosses. I'll be back on Wednesday. — Jess Bidgood
The veep curseThe latest
Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election for many reasons. Her job title may be one of them. Sitting vice presidents have a poor track record of succeeding their bosses. Over the last century, five have become their party's presidential nominee. But only one — George H.W. Bush in 1988 — won the White House. Before Bush, the last sitting vice president to be elected to directly succeed the president he served was Martin Van Buren in 1836. Incumbent vice presidents running for president face unique challenges. They must decide when to hug the president and when to hold him at arm's length. They must claim credit for an administration's successes even as their opponents blame them for its failures. Despite occupying a subordinate role, they must show they're ready for the No. 1 job. And they must do it all while their boss, arguably the world's most powerful person, watches. Those obstacles, which vexed Harris and her predecessors, are part of the same curse that could shape the future presidential prospects of Vice President-elect JD Vance. Unpopular presidentsAs he ran for president against Richard Nixon in 1968, Vice President Hubert Humphrey had a Vietnam problem — and a President Lyndon Johnson problem. Johnson had dropped his re-election bid over the war's unpopularity, but refused to let Humphrey, his No. 2, break from the administration's approach. The president, hypersensitive to perceived disloyalty, cut Humphrey out of meetings and blocked the Democratic Party from adopting a more dovish plank. Humphrey finally plucked up the courage to call for a halt to American bombing just weeks before Election Day. His break with Johnson helped narrow the gap, but not by enough to win. Harris, whose boss is about as unpopular as Johnson was then, broke from President Biden in some ways. She vowed that her presidency would "not be a continuation of Joe Biden's," but struggled to articulate what she would change. Asked what she would have done differently from Biden, she said "there is not a thing that comes to mind," a sound bite Donald Trump's campaign turned into an ad. Ultimately, there may have been only so much Harris could do to separate herself from an unpopular administration in which she was a central figure. Post-election polling by Blueprint, a Democratic research group, found that her closeness with Biden repelled voters, but that the inflation and illegal immigration that dogged his term loomed larger. "People want a fresh start," said Kate Andersen Brower, the author of "First in Line," a book about vice presidents. "You're kind of tainted by association." Bad bossesSome vice presidents aim to succeed more popular incumbents. Yet even those can hinder as much as they help. Nixon, running in 1960, sought to show he had the chops to follow Dwight Eisenhower, a World War II hero, into the Oval Office. But Eisenhower wasn't cooperating. When reporters asked for an example of Nixon shaping policy, Eisenhower filibustered before finally saying, "If you give me a week, I might think of one." Nixon narrowly lost to John F. Kennedy that year. He ran again for president in 1968, free of the mantle of sitting vice president, and beat Humphrey. In 1988, Ronald Reagan's above-water approval ratings lifted Bush, his No. 2. But Reagan pointedly declined to endorse Bush until the Republican primaries were effectively over, after Bush had faced down multiple rivals. And Reagan's endorsement was tepid: His remarks at a black-tie event amounted to a single paragraph during which he mispronounced Bush's name. Things were more tense in 2000. Vice President Al Gore avoided campaigning with Bill Clinton after the Monica Lewinsky scandal and picked Joe Lieberman, the first prominent Democrat to criticize Clinton's conduct, as his running mate. Yet, in distancing himself from Clinton, Gore forfeited the chance to springboard off an incumbent who was actually fairly popular at the time. This year, Biden praised Harris as a governing partner. But coming from an unpopular president, praise can be a yoke. "I was able to delegate her responsibility on everything," Biden said, remarks that Trump's allies used against Harris. Biden also tasked Harris with tackling the root causes of migration, which Trump cited in blaming her for the rise in illegal border crossings. And since Harris's defeat, some Democrats — including Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker — have accused Biden of dooming her by not ending his re-election bid sooner. Who's next?Vice presidents don't always run in their bosses' shadow. As national figures often beloved by their parties, they have natural advantages in presidential primaries. That means Harris's quest may not be over, just as Nixon's wasn't in 1960. But another sitting vice president running for president may be just around the corner. When Vance assumes the office on Jan. 20, he will presumably do so with an eye to 2028, when he could try to succeed a term-limited Trump. Much like Harris did, Vance is already running difficult errands for his boss. He spent part of last week lobbying senators to confirm Matt Gaetz, Trump's pick to become attorney general — only for Gaetz to withdraw from consideration amid allegations of sex with an underage girl. Vance's role in the incoming administration also remained largely undefined as recently as the campaign's final days, and he may have to jockey for attention if he hopes to maintain Trump's loyalty. Vance was noticeably absent last week when Trump attended a U.F.C. fight at Madison Square Garden, even as Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy and other ambitious Trump allies showed face. Vance, the third-youngest person ever to become vice president, has plenty of time to win the White House for himself. But if he hopes to do it in four years' time, he may look to Harris's 2024 campaign as a warning.
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