On Politics: Into the gender gap
Into the gender gap
The latest, with 20 days to go
If you have been reading this newsletter with any regularity (and I'm grateful that you have), you'll know by now that this whole election might just turn on gender. Vice President Kamala Harris, who has sought to frame her campaign in part as a referendum on women's reproductive freedoms, is running up the numbers with women. Former President Donald Trump, who has turned the act of running for president into a paean to machismo, has built a solid lead with men. The question of who benefits more from this disparity could very well determine who wins the election. Enter Representative Byron Donalds of Florida, who sought to appeal directly to women as he warmed up the crowd for Trump at a rally last night in Atlanta. "Ladies here tonight in Georgia — and by the way, ladies, you look great, ya'll look good," he said, before doling out physical compliments to individual members of the crowd. "Ladies," he continued, "in this election, there should be no gender gap, because a Trump presidency is a presidency that has a strong economy, has safe streets, has a foreign policy that makes sense, and it is a presidency that respects women, protects women, actually protects Title IX." It was an unsubtle example of the way Trump and his allies are scrambling to shore up their standing with women, a process that is unfolding while Harris undertakes her own effort to narrow the gap she faces with men. Both candidates are trying to address the gender gap by stepping right into it — although their approaches and messages could not sound more different. Harris this week sat for media interviews with radio hosts who command large audiences of Black men, saying she needs to "earn" their votes and rolling out policy goals intended to do so. Trump, a presidential candidate who has been found liable for sexual abuse and recorded making crude comments about women, has tried to appeal to women with a series of exaggerations and bombastic statements that seem intended less to persuade women than to tell them what to do. That included an appearance that ran earlier today on Fox News, where he sat for a town hall-style event with an all-female audience and declared himself the "father of I.V.F." He noted that Senator Katie Britt of Alabama — whom he described as "a fantastically attractive person" — was the first to bring the issue to his attention. "We really are the party for I.V.F.," Trump said, offering a nuance-free take on an issue Democrats have seized on after the fall of Roe v. Wade, which Trump has celebrated, raised the possibility of restrictions on such fertility treatments. "We want fertilization, and it's all the way, and the Democrats tried to attack us on it, and we're out there on I.V.F., even more than them," Trump said. A gap that may be growingThe gender gap has grown over the course of the year. President Biden had about an 8-percentage point lead with women before he dropped out of the presidential race; Trump, meanwhile, had a double-digit lead among men. Now, though, it may be Harris who is drawing slightly more lopsided support from women than Trump is from men, which Democrats might see as an encouraging sign. The most recent national poll by The Times and Siena College, taken earlier this month, found that Harris had the support of 56 percent of women, while Trump drew the support of 40 percent of women — a 16 percentage point gap. Trump had the support of 53 percent of men, while Harris had the support of 42 percent of men — a slightly narrower gap. "The real story of this election right now is that the gender advantage is to Harris," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who previously did work for Biden's presidential campaign. "Women are voting more for her than men for Trump. And there are more women voters, and they turn out at higher rates." A promise of protectionTrump has focused much of his presidential campaign on male voters. He has courted the bro vote with a range of appeals to the online manoverse and, of course, he invited Hulk Hogan onstage during the Republican National Convention this summer. He has run up particularly big numbers with young men, in part by making a hyper-specific appeal to niche online audiences of men. His attempts to appeal to women have been a little bit less refined. Late last month, he said at a rally that women wouldn't even be "thinking" about abortion if he were president — even though the issue has come to dominate American politics precisely because of a Supreme Court ruling he championed. "You will no longer have anxiety from all of the problems our country has today," Trump told women at a rally in Pennsylvania. "You will be protected, and I will be your protector." During Trump's Wednesday Fox News event with female voters, the Harris campaign sought to keep his position on abortion front and center by running an ad slamming him for it. Her campaign has also deployed Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota to appeal to male voters. "We need to get, especially young men, out to vote," Walz said this week in Eau Claire, Wis. "This is not W.W.E.-type stuff." Walz has sharply criticized Trump's violent rhetoric and sought to project his own masculinity as an alternative. "They're all talk on this," he said. "I guarantee you I can shoot better pheasants than them."
How abortion is shaping women's votes in ArizonaTen states will vote on abortion ballot measures next month, including the swing state of Arizona. There, Proposition 139 would enshrine abortion access in the state's constitution and extend protections from 15 weeks until fetal viability around 24 weeks. My colleague Alexandra Eaton, a senior video journalist, spoke with Republican women about the measure. Here, she shares what she found. During last month's record heat wave in Arizona, we went to the Phoenix suburbs and, in between glasses of iced tea, sat down with longtime Republican women to talk with them about their support for the measure. It's one of a few reasons these white suburban women — part of a crucial demographic that both candidates need to win — are turning away from Trump. Jackie Allen, 55, a mother of 10 and a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, said the 2016 election that landed Trump in office made her rethink a number of issues, including abortion access. "I do believe in the sanctity of life, but I just don't believe it's my right to choose for someone else," she said. She plans to vote in support of the abortion measure — and to cast a vote for Ms. Harris. Kathy Petsas, a Republican precinct committee member, told us that the freedom for women to make their own decisions about health care was in line with traditional Republican values. Petsas described herself as part of the "old-school" Republican Party that believes in staying out of people's personal lives. She is planning to vote in support of the measure, but she hasn't yet decided whom to back for president. It's possible that voters who support both the abortion measure and Trump could be decisive in the state. A recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College found 52 percent of voters support Proposition 139, which needs 50 percent to pass, but only 46 percent of voters in the state support Harris. — Alexandra Eaton Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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