On Politics: Can Jon Tester defy the odds again?
Good evening! Tonight, my colleague Mike Baker, who covers the West, has a dispatch from the state that might have the country's most important Senate race: Montana. Then, I look at how Democrats are spending elsewhere on the map. — Jess Bidgood
Democrats need Jon Tester to defy the odds again
The latest, with 40 days to go
At the local Democratic Party headquarters in Great Falls, Mont., floor-to-ceiling windows are plastered with signs promoting candidates for the November election. But there is a notable exception: Vice President Kamala Harris, the party's presidential nominee, is not featured on the placards. I noticed the omission while walking last week along the streets of Great Falls, a northern Great Plains city on the banks of the cascading Missouri River, where I was talking to voters and business owners about recent political upheaval. Great Falls was a Democratic stronghold in Montana for decades, thanks to a coalition of union laborers, charitable Catholics and farmers who cared for conservation. But here, it was as if Harris didn't exist. Keeping distance from national Democrats is part of a do-or-die strategy in Montana for what is shaping up to be the nation's most important U.S. Senate race. If the Democrats want to sustain the slimmest of majorities in the Senate, they desperately need Senator Jon Tester of Montana to win a fourth term. Tester has defied the odds before, far outperforming Democratic standard-bearers in past elections. But Montana is changing, no longer defined by its purple, ticket-splitting ways. In places like Great Falls and elsewhere, Republicans have swept into power in recent years, leaving Tester as Montana's last statewide-elected Democrat. The shift has been abrupt: In 2008, Barack Obama lost the state by fewer than 3 percentage points. Four years ago, Joe Biden lost it by 16 percentage points. In his past races, Tester built enough good will to make up the difference, winning re-election in 2012 and 2018 by less than four percentage points. But now, polls show him trailing his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, including one that had Tester down six points — and, given the challenging Senate map Democrats face across the rest of the country, a loss here would most likely be enough to hand the chamber to Republicans next year. Tester's pitchTester has long carried broad appeal in Montana as a third-generation farmer who famously lost three of his fingers to a meat grinder. He has declined to endorse Harris and advertised how he has worked with Republicans and "fought to stop President Biden from letting migrants stay in America." It is part of an aura of independence that Mr. Tester has projected during his 18 years in office. That helped him appeal to Republicans like Mike Winters, a former mayor of Great Falls who plans to vote for Tester. The two do not always agree on the issues, Winters said, but he admired Tester's pushes to support veterans and back the military in general, along with his efforts to strengthen border security and other issues that are important to the state. "He's a Montanan," Winters said. "He talks like us. He swears like us. He's not afraid to sit down in a bar and have a beer with us. He calls you by your first name." But many others are not so convinced that Tester has stayed true. Republicans have portrayed Tester as an ally of the Biden administration and a sellout. They have attacked Tester, who once ran on a Republican rival's close ties to lobbyists, for becoming one of the top recipients of financial support from lobbyists. A changed state
Up until just a few years ago, Democrats controlled the governor's office in Montana and had done so for 16 years. The recent political shift in the state has shocked many observers, including Democrats in Great Falls. The Democratic coalition there has frayed, with the powerful bloc of union laborers slowly dying off in the wake of the 1980 closure of the local smelter. In recent elections, Republicans took control of all of the seats on the county commission and all 12 of the local legislative seats. Don Ryan, a Democrat who is trying to regain his seat on the county commission, said Democrats in the area had struggled to overcome national messages from activists or politicians on gun control, defunding the police, and environmental causes such as the effort to halt the Keystone XL oil pipeline that would have provided jobs in Montana. "You get tagged with the baggage of everybody on the national level," Ryan said. The decline of local newspapers has made it harder for anybody to break through with a locally focused message, Montanans told me, with partisan and nationalized messaging on cable television and talk radio filling the void. The Republican challengerSheehy emerged as the Republican candidate thanks to the support of former President Donald Trump. Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and former Navy SEAL who earned a Purple Heart, was national Republicans' top pick for the race. His messaging has focused on issues such as gun rights, border security and inflation, with a flurry of attacks on the Biden administration. Sheehy has faltered at times during the campaign. He said that he lied about how he ended up with a bullet in his arm, raising questions about his trustworthiness. He was recently recorded using racist stereotypes about Native Americans, a group that has been an important voting bloc for Tester. The business he founded has been struggling, opening him up to attacks that he might not be the success story he claims. "How can we trust him?" one Democratic ad asks voters. Little of that may matter in a state that has embraced the national Republican brand. Cook Political Report recently moved the race from "tossup" to leaning Republican. $121 million — so farTester might be trying to keep the race feeling local, but Democrats and outside groups across the country are paying close attention. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate, thanks to four independents who caucus with them. But with the departure of Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the conservative Democrat turned independent, Republicans are expected to pick up a seat easily, leaving the chamber in what would effectively be a tie that would be broken by the next vice president. Of the seven states that are expected to decide Senate control, four are leaning toward the Democrats. Two of them — Michigan and Ohio — are considered tossups. Montana is the one leaning toward Republicans. Because the race could help Republicans take control of the chamber, money has poured in from both sides. Campaign data compiled by Open Secrets shows the candidates and outside groups have already spent $121 million. That is more than $100 for every resident of the state.
Democrats look to Texas and FloridaWhile they fight an uphill battle to maintain control of the Senate, Democrats are looking toward two states that perennially break their hearts: Texas and Florida. I took a look at spending they announced today in both states. On Thursday, the party's Senate campaign arm announced that it was making a "multimillion-dollar" investment in television advertising, building on money it has already spent on advertising, staff and voter contact in both states. They say it's not about Montana. They know both states are hard to win. But they insist that the two Republican incumbents — Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida — are polarizing, unpopular and beatable. "This is about Democrats going on offense and expanding the map," David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told me. Cruz beat back an expensive challenge from former Representative Beto O'Rourke in 2018. That same year, Scott squeaked into office with a victory of about 10,000 votes. Now, Cruz faces a challenge from Representative Colin Allred, a former N.F.L. linebacker in a race some Republicans are calling "too close to call." Scott is facing Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman who represented South Florida, and Democrats there are hoping a referendum on abortion rights could help her win. This time, Democrats are hoping, maybe things will be different. — Jess Bidgood Tell us about your experience with political advertisingIt's autumn! The season of falling leaves, Halloween costumes and — this year — wall-to-wall political advertising. I want to know how this is affecting your life. What's happening in your mailbox? What's it like to watch TV? How has that shaped your daily routine? And where else are you getting information about the election? I'd especially like to hear from readers who live in swing states. Let me know here, and I may use your answer in an upcoming story or newsletter. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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