On Politics: Harris has a big campaign launch — and big tests ahead
Harris has a big campaign launch — and big tests ahead
If you are Vice President Kamala Harris, another Democrat or any other person who happens to want Harris to become president, the last two weeks and five days have probably felt like a dream. There is a tougher reality for Harris, though, belied by the euphoric haze. The contest between Harris and former President Donald Trump remains remarkably close, and she is tied with him in must-win states like Wisconsin and Michigan, according to The New York Times's polling averages. Trump's allies are sharpening their attacks. And in a candidacy measured in days not months, she has yet to face the scrutiny of an interview or release a detailed vision for her potential presidency. Every presidential campaign is a series of tests. Can you excite voters? Can you raise money? For Harris, the answer to both of those questions so far is yes. Her party coalesced around her instantly. She has smashed fund-raising records and held overflowing rallies, and she seems to be tugging key swing states her way. But as Harris wraps up a battleground campaign tour with her brand-new running mate this weekend and turns her attention toward the Democratic National Convention this month, fresh challenges are in the offing. And the short campaign leaves a candidate who is still introducing herself to voters with little time for do-overs. "She will be tested," Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, said. "She'll be tested by the Trump campaign. She'll be tested by the press, and just by everyday events." That may be why Harris has been careful to sound a note of caution to supporters who might prefer to luxuriate in the optimism. "To all the friends listening, we also need to level set," Harris said this week in Philadelphia. "We are the underdogs in this race." An economic message to expandHarris did not have to slog through a tough primary to achieve her party's nomination, nor has she had to spend months sustaining Republican attacks directed at the top of the ticket. That has insulated her from the exact scrutiny many presidential candidates have faced by late summer — but it has also left her with less time to define herself and her candidacy. Harris began a major battleground push this week, and her campaign has released television ads that home in on her background as a prosecutor. She plans to debate Trump on Sept. 10 — another big test — and she told reporters on Thursday night that she would sit for an interview "before the end of the month." But the key test for any Democrat is laying out an economic message, said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who conducted polling for the Biden campaign and is currently advising outside groups. "People want change. People think the economy's in bad shape and it's going to get worse," Lake said. "So the fundamental structures of the race make it a very close race no matter what." Voters' longstanding malaise over the economy is partly what dragged down President Biden's approval ratings, and that leaves Harris with a tricky task: claiming credit for the administration's signature achievements while differentiating herself from an unpopular president. "We don't know what her vision for the country is. We don't know how she would differ from Biden," said Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist who worked on Mitt Romney's presidential campaign in 2012. Sarafina Chitika, a spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, said Harris had "spent the opening weeks of her campaign barnstorming the battlegrounds talking to the voters about her vision to protect our freedoms and create an economy where the middle class can thrive." "Our campaign has always said this election will be close," Chitika said, "and it's why we are investing our momentum and resources — including more than $300 million raised in July — toward the work that wins elections." 'It's just tough to maintain that pace'Trump tried on Thursday to use a news conference of his own to accuse Harris of dodging tough questions. But he failed to stick to that message. Harris's allies are cleareyed about the fact that the honeymoon will probably not last forever. "She hasn't had one misstep. Neither has Tim Walz. It's just tough to maintain that pace," said Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist. "But I don't think it's impossible." Cardona said Harris would "fill out the edges" of her agenda items — but suggested there was little electoral benefit to Harris's getting bogged down in the details. "Democrats have historically been obsessed with their 15-point plans, and our policies and those plans are vastly superior to anything Republicans have put out," Cardona said. "Does it really make a difference?" Some Democrats said they were looking forward to more detail from Harris on the issues they cared about, even as they heaped praise on the first weeks of her campaign. "I think folks are really, really interested in what she will do, what the federal government will seek to do on housing," said Mayor Cavalier Johnson of Milwaukee, a Democrat. Johnson added that Milwaukee voters wanted to hear about well-paying jobs. "She's talked about this, but I think folks want to dive into that," he said. The compressed timeline of the campaign gives Harris every reason to move cautiously — and focus on the tests that she is sure she will pass.
How Tim Walz built his messageGov. Tim Walz of Minnesota has not given an interview in the few days since he was named Harris's running mate. But my colleague Reid Epstein has spoken to him a dozen times since he was elected governor of Minnesota in 2018. Reid opened up his notebook for us. My interviews with Walz show how he has thought about Donald Trump, the use of political power, whether to compromise on abortion rights and L.G.B.T.Q. rights, President Biden's campaign and the impact of the war in Gaza on his own political standing. Many of the themes he discussed — and even an exact phrase or two — have since become the backbone of his fledgling vice-presidential stump speech. Here are some highlights: Dec. 3, 2022: Previewing a progressive agenda Walz went to a Democratic Governors Association gathering in New Orleans after winning re-election and unifying Democratic control of Minnesota's government. He was about to embark on a sweeping legislative agenda that would delight liberals and offer fodder for Republican attacks. He was unapologetic about his plans. "I don't like this Democratic talk about overreach. Someone said, 'You know what Republicans call a one-vote majority? A majority.' And so the idea is we have the majority." "I'm done messing around on things like cannabis legalization, I'm done messing around on paid family medical leave and increasing reimbursements on child care funding. I think you need to do the things that, that the public elected you to do and try and be as pragmatic as you can." June 22, 2023: Testing out a future campaign line One of Minnesota's largest companies, Target, had just scaled back L.G.B.T.Q. Pride displays inside its stores after facing a backlash from conservatives. Walz, during a conversation in Washington, said the company had made the wrong decision. "Do you want me to moderate my hate? What percentage of hatefulness do I need to have? What percentage do I need to be taking away women's bodily autonomy to make people happy? I think this issue was simple. Target had a display of clothing aimed at inclusiveness to an L.G.B.T. community. There's a very Midwestern philosophy that says, 'Mind your own damn business.' And a lot of these things are 'mind your own damn business.'" Aug. 10, 2023: Showing his loyalty to Biden Walz went to the Iowa State Fair to vouch for Biden and eat a pork chop while Republican presidential candidates prospected for support. "The Biden campaign is doing everything exactly right. They are focusing on jobs, focusing on climate and focusing on improving lives." Feb. 23, 2024: Seizing on I.V.F. Three days after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos in test tubes should be considered children, imperiling the type of I.V.F. treatment that Walz's wife had used to become pregnant, he said during an interview in Washington that Democrats would force Republicans to own the issue across the country. "If they think they're escaping the Alabama Supreme Court, they're sadly mistaken. That cake is baked, and they own it. I see Alabama's Legislature is trying to already craft a law. You're damn right they are, because they're going to pay a heavy price." Feb. 28, 2024: Worries over Gaza The day after Biden lost 150,000 votes in Michigan's primary to "Uncommitted," in protest of his support for Israel in its war in Gaza, Walz said he was concerned about the political impact of the conflict. "There's a regular group of protesters that is outside my house. It's about four or five, the same folks. We'll have a gathering today that will be maybe 50 or more. I view that as a healthy part of the democracy. We still have to make sure our meetings go on and things like that. Even if it's a minority voice, what I'm proud of the Democratic Party is we're hearing it." — Reid J. Epstein Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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