On Politics: A campaign that just started is almost over
A campaign that just started is almost over
The latest, with 74 days to go
When Vice President Kamala Harris took the stage at the Democratic National Convention last night, she did not linger on her party's bliss over the events of the past month. She used the opening words of the biggest speech of her life to change the subject. "OK," Harris said. "Let's get to business." Harris's crisp opening reflected the urgency of the clock, but also the hard reality of a hyper-compressed political calendar: Her presidential campaign is almost over, even though it has just begun, and both she and former President Donald Trump have hardly a second to waste in a close race. Because Harris has been atop her party's ticket for only about a month, she and Trump have sprinted in a matter of days through campaign elements that normally take months. Harris has raced to define herself and her candidacy, running a campaign heavy on rallies and light on policy and taking questions from the press. Trump, who built a campaign premised on defeating President Biden, has struggled to change up his attacks. And now, with both conventions done and dusted, comes everything else. Much will be packed into the next 74 days, and much can change in that time. If your head is spinning, dear reader, I get it. Mine too! Here's my road map to the rest of the campaign. If you blink, you might miss it. Coming up next: the summer doldrums. Ah, finally. The presidential race is set. It's summertime. Candidates and voters can take a minute to breathe before the fall campaign ramps up. For like, two days. Harris is heading home to Washington this weekend, my colleagues Reid Epstein and Katie Rogers report. Trump, who is campaigning today in Las Vegas and Glendale, Ariz., also has no campaign rallies planned for Saturday and Sunday. That might be all the peace and quiet we get before … Debate season! The first presidential debate between Harris and Trump is set for Sept. 10, 18 days from now. That debate, the first confrontation between the two candidates, could well be the most important night of the campaign, with the power to blunt or shift either candidate's momentum. (President Biden could speak to that.) Harris and Trump have a lot to pack in before that happens. They'll be crisscrossing the country for campaign rallies. They both have already started their debate prep. Trump is leaning on the former Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat, while Harris's team includes Philippe Reines, a political operative who helped prepare Hillary Clinton to debate Trump in 2016. Harris has also said she will do a national news media interview before the end of the month (which gives her eight days), placing that high-profile moment squarely in the middle of the ramp-up to the debate. Early voting kicks off. Both campaigns have even less time than it seems to make their case to voters. That's because, in many states, voters who really want to get their civic duty over with can do so as early as September. In North Carolina, mail voting begins on Sept. 6 — two weeks from now! It starts in the must-win (for Democrats, anyway) state of Pennsylvania on Sept. 16, and in Michigan on Sept. 26. "They're going to be all over the country, barnstorming, and the parties are going to get down to the work of identifying voters and pulling voters, pure and simple," said Elaine Kamarck, a member of the Democratic National Committee. "In September, you're not writing any new policy papers with candidates, you know, you're not doing any of that stuff," Kamarck said. "You are just going." The October push. October is always the craziest month of a presidential campaign — so it might be the one month of the extraordinary 2024 campaign that actually feels kind of normal. A vice-presidential debate between Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota is scheduled for Oct. 1 — a running-mate showdown that might not change people's votes but is certain to highlight the campaigns' divergent outlooks. Both campaigns have also indicated a willingness to have a second presidential debate, although nothing has been confirmed. The main challenge on the ground will be mobilizing voters, who will be casting millions of early and mail-in votes by early October. Harris inherited all of the Biden campaign's operations as well as a robust state party infrastructure, so her short timeline won't put her behind, according to Kamarck. "It's the best shape the party has been in since, frankly, 2008," she said. They will also be looking out for an October surprise — and in a volatile moment, that could be just about anything. Economic news or a sudden development related to the war in Gaza, for example, could shift the race, as could new revelations about the candidates as the campaign sucks up ever more media oxygen. "If you're Trump, you have be hoping that some really negative stuff about Harris comes out in October," said Alex Conant, a veteran Republican strategist. And let us not forget the actual, official Election Day, 74 days from now. Both sides are already preparing for contentious legal battles after that. What you might have missed from the Democratic conventionIt was a busy week. Here's a guide to some important themes of the week that might have passed you by.
An old-school politician encounters the influencersOver the past week, we followed some boldfaced names around the Democratic National Convention, experiencing the convention as the political celebrities do, at least for a couple of hours. The full collection is here, but the following comes from my colleague Nick Corasaniti, who shadowed New Jersey's governor around the United Center last night. Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey took a deep breath. He had just shuffled through six interviews with social media influencers, including Bryan Russell Smith and Christopher Mowrey, who has more than 400,000 followers on TikTok. The gantlet, known as the Blue Carpet, was a new addition to the convention, perplexing both the politicians who had to navigate it and the passers-by who were older than 30. It was part of an aggressive effort by the party to pump voters' feeds with supportive content. Old-school pols like Murphy were still getting used to it. "That was like speed dating," he quipped. The interviews were a novelty. "Can I use profanity?" he asked at the start. He tugged at the microphones, once accidentally walking away with one while heading to another interview. He was asked about policy, politics and the secret to his 30-year marriage. "You have to keep the mystery alive," his wife, Tammy Murphy, said in a joint interview with Samantha Thomas, another influencer. She recounted a birthday surprise in Las Vegas that had ended with the two renewing their vows with an Elvis impersonator. The Blue Carpet experience was "like nothing else I've ever done," Murphy said, but he quickly grasped that he was reaching new, and perhaps bigger, audiences than in a more typical cable news hit. "I give the D.N.C. a lot of credit," Murphy said. "They must have some really smart 22-year-olds, because that was really cool." The convention was not only about new media; there was also plenty of time for traditional politics. Squeezing through the throngs at the CNN-Politico Grill, Murphy strode by circular tuffets and bar tables to shake the hand of a good friend, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia. The two bantered about Federal Election Commission rules. McAuliffe checked in on Tammy Murphy, who was navigating the packed room with a knee brace for a broken kneecap. Then it was time to leave. Murphy showed off a campaign button he had been given by a new acquaintance. It read: "Irish for Kamala." — Nick Corasaniti Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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