On Politics: The good mood in Milwaukee
The good mood in Milwaukee
Hello from Milwaukee, where there is So. Much. News. Read on for the top developments and a look at how the sobriety of the weekend has given way to jubilation at the Republican National Convention. Plus, the calculus behind Trump's pick for veep. The latest
'Trump just won'As the Republican National Convention opened in the extraordinary shadow of the attempted assassination of the nominee, aides with Trump's campaign insisted that the former president's near-death "changes nothing" about their plans or their focus here. Tell that to the Republican delegates and party stalwarts milling around in Milwaukee. "Talk about strength, right?" said Mark Morgan, a former acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during the Trump administration, raising his arms as he spoke at a policy forum staged by the Heritage Foundation just outside the convention. "After President Trump was shot in the head, what does he do? Fist bump and say 'Fight, fight, fight," Morgan said as the crowd cheered. The bombast around the shooting — which killed one rallygoer and left two people in critical condition — may not be coming from the main stage tonight as the G.O.P. seeks to show some restraint. But in party breakfasts, bars and the baking sidewalks of Milwaukee, Republicans said they believe the episode would bring them a political boost. And they view it as just one more example of the way everything — everything — seems to be going their way. "Let's be honest," said the former Fox News host and Trump ally Tucker Carlson from the Heritage stage, according to my colleague Ken Bensinger. "Trump just won. He just won." On Monday morning, Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the federal charges Trump faced for retaining classified documents after his presidency — a decision sure to be appealed that nevertheless removes a major legal threat against the former president. Battleground polls show Trump leading President Biden in states he would need to clinch the presidency. Trump has a three-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a poll from The New York Times and Siena College, and is trailing by only three points in Virginia, which hasn't backed a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004. And, of course, there is the fact that over the past two weeks, the Democrats have melted down, consumed with worry about the age and fitness of President Biden after his halting debate performance just over two weeks ago. "It kind of feels to me like Reagan coming in the 1980s," said Jonathan Barnett, a Republican committeeman from Arkansas who was attending his 12th convention, comparing the recent developments to the release of hostages in Iran that helped lift the national mood after Ronald Reagan won the presidency in a landslide. Barnett and other Republicans described the shooting on Saturday as a tragedy — but one that they nevertheless believe has left Trump stronger than ever. "He's a survivor," Barnett said, "and people like survivors." A party on offenseIt has all fed a sense of bullishness — even inevitability — across a Republican Party that has in recent years often found itself on defense. Republicans did not expect to win the 2016 presidential election. They bled House seats in the 2018 midterms, lost the 2020 presidential election and were underwhelmed by their performance in the 2022 midterm elections. "This is like playing a football game in which you've been playing defense for seven years and suddenly they handed you the ball," the Republican strategist Scott Jennings said in an interview last week, before the shooting. "It's the first time the party has actually, truly been on offense." To the Republicans here, it's not just Trump who survived the shooting and emerged with a boost. Their party has, too. "We were very united before," said Jason Chaffetz, a Republican who was a Utah congressman from 2009 to 2017. "But there's an unbreakable bond now. He's willing to put his life on the line to make America great again, and that is so baked into the D.N.A. of Republicans at this point — it makes us proud." Maggie Sandrock, 68, a retired executive and a delegate from North Carolina, said she saw Trump's survival as a miracle that showed "God's hands on him." But she also said she thought it would help Republicans mend internal divisions over party leaders' decisions to soften the party platform's position on abortion and to roll back its focus on longstanding values like fiscal conservatism. "There have been some really major differences," she said. "I think as a result of what happened on Saturday, I think this party is more committed than ever to come out united, saying that 'This is our president, we're going to fight until there's no fight left and we're going to win.'" The unity on display here is a stark contrast from the last time the party gathered in person, in 2016, when Trump muscled his way to the nomination despite wide opposition. Now, he is the king of his party, with most of his opponents largely excommunicated. On Monday afternoon, the party also crowned a prince, when it nominated Trump's vice-presidential pick, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio. My colleague Michael Gold was in the arena when Vance walked onto the convention floor to cheers. Michael said Vance seemed overcome with emotion as Ohio's lieutenant governor, Jon Husted, read a speech that celebrated his conservative values and his adherence to Trumpism. With his wife, Usha, standing nearby, he beamed as the crowd started a chant of "J.D.! J.D.!" It was another moment of jubilation for a party that feels it can already taste victory.
THE VEEPSTAKES Why Trump chose J.D. VanceOn Monday, Trump elevated an ambitious ideologue to his ticket in a move that is likely to shape Republican politics for years to come. I asked my colleague Michael Bender, who has joined us periodically over the last couple of months to talk veepstakes, to tell us about a figure who could become the heir to Trump's political movement. JB: Why do you think Trump picked Vance? MB: Vance fits better than any of the other contenders with Trump's instincts. I think about, right after the attempted assassination, where Trump wanted to get up and tell everybody to keep fighting. Vance has really positioned himself as a fighter in Trump's MAGA movement. JB: Vance went on X shortly after the shooting at the Trump rally and blamed the Biden campaign's rhetoric for the attempted assassination. Is that the kind of instinct you mean? MB: For sure. And that happened when Trump's advisers and his wife, Melania Trump, were all urging Trump and the rest of the campaign to take it down a couple of notches, calling for unity and peace. Trump must see Vance as his best chance to win this November. JB: What does it mean that Trump has chosen a former critic to be his vice president? MB: Each of the final three contenders — Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Vance — all have some Trump criticism in their background. You might have to go back to the post-Revolutionary era to find a vice president who has said so many divisive things about the person at the top of the ticket — go back to a time when the vice president was whoever came in second. There are just very few people out there who have always believed that Donald Trump was the right man for the job. JB: Does it say something about the way Trump is trying to shape the future of the party that he has chosen the youngest of his contenders? This is one of the most shocking elements of this pick to me. Trump is not someone who has ever shown any interest in finding a successor, whether that's in his business, whether that's as a reality TV show host, or in politics to this point. He doesn't want to acknowledge the potential that the page could ever be turned from Donald Trump. By choosing an up-and-comer who's barely beyond the age threshold to be president himself, he's inviting speculation right now about what Vance's plans are for 2028. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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