Friday, May 17, 2024

On Politics: The good news for Biden in our battleground polls

An enduring group of voters prioritizes abortion over all other issues.
On Politics

May 17, 2024

It's the weekend! Tonight, we're looking at a bright spot for Biden in our battleground polls — and, inspired by a certain Supreme Court justice, we want to hear your stories of political spats with your neighbors.

Joe Biden walking on the White House grounds. Two Secret Service agents stands nearby.
President Biden at the White House in May. Pete Marovich for The New York Times

The good news for Biden in our battleground polls

A series of polls of battleground states released this week was full of doom and gloom for President Biden. He is trailing Donald Trump in five key states he won in 2020, with Nevada and Georgia looking all but out of reach.

But follow me deeper into the data, where there is a bright spot for his campaign, and for other Democrats, too: Nearly two years after the fall of Roe v. Wade, an enduring group of voters prioritizes abortion over all other issues.

Eleven percent of the voters in six battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan — said that abortion was the most important issue in deciding their vote, in the polls by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer. It's not a huge share, but it's roughly the same size as the 12 percent of voters who said they cared most about immigration — and it shows that the issue of abortion is still activating voters in the battlegrounds that will probably decide the presidential election.

Among women alone, the share of voters who prioritize abortion above all else rises to 17 percent. It's edged out only slightly by the economy, which 19 percent of women chose as the most important issue.

The polls show how, as abortion rights have eroded in this country, the issue has become a key motivator. And the surveys underscore the fact that Trump is out of step with most voters on abortion — although that hasn't yet translated into as much of an electoral vulnerability for him as one might think.

Sixty-four percent of voters in battleground states want abortion to be always or mostly legal, our polls found, a figure that is largely unchanged from a similar poll we did last fall. Trump, who nominated three of the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe, has said abortion rights should be left to the states — many of which have established strict abortion restrictions in the wake of Roe's fall. But he's actually beating Biden among battleground voters who believe abortion should be mostly legal, 49 percent to 41 percent, suggesting those voters either don't understand Trump's abortion stance or don't see it as a deal-breaker.

Supporters of abortion rights view that as an area where Biden and other Democrats can improve their standing.

"What we have is really more work to do in talking to those voters about the choice they face in this election," said Jessica Mackler, the president of Emily's List, a political action committee that works to elect women who support abortion rights and that is backing the re-election of Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

"When we do that," she added, "we win."

Who are the abortion voters?

Our pollsters asked voters an open-ended question about which issue was most important in determining their vote. The voters who chose abortion were whiter and more educated than voters overall, and more likely to be women.

They were also more likely to be Democrats. Twenty percent of Democrats described abortion as their most important issue, compared with 9 percent of independents and just 4 percent of Republicans. (It is possible that some of the respondents who said "abortion" were opposed to abortion rights, rather than supportive of them.)

Democratic women were more than twice as likely to prioritize the issue of abortion than the economy, our polling editor, Ruth Igielnik, told me. Twenty-six percent of Democratic women said abortion was the most important issue, while 11 percent of Democratic women chose the economy. Those figures were practically flipped for Republican women. Seven percent of them chose abortion, while 29 percent picked the economy.

Pamela Norman, 76, a Democrat and retiree from Arizona, said the issue resonated deeply for women of her generation.

"Let me be blunt. I'm Black. So I saw it coming 10 years ago," Norman said, lamenting that her generation saw abortion rights protected, while her daughters' generation has seen them rolled back.

Tara Schiraldi, 33, a public defender from West Philadelphia, said the issue of abortion mattered to her, because it represented the idea of the country backsliding on people's rights.

That's a major part of why she plans to vote for Biden and Senator Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat, even though she does not feel particularly enthusiastic about them.

"I'll take something I'm lukewarm about versus something I feel is directly threatening to myself and the people I care about," Schiraldi said.

The good news for Trump

When he campaigned for president in 2016, Trump vowed to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe. After they did, he bragged that he "was able to kill Roe v. Wade."

But over the past month, he has tried to obfuscate his stance, calling for the issue to be returned to the states. His administration backed a 20-week abortion ban; more recently, he said he wouldn't sign a federal ban.

Our polls suggest his approach might be working. Fifty-six percent of voters blame Trump for the end of Roe — but the share of voters who blame Biden, neither candidate or don't know whom to blame adds up to more than 40 percent of the electorate.

And 44 percent of Trump's own supporters believe abortion should be either mostly or always legal — which means that, for them, Trump's stance on abortion and his impact on Roe is simply not a deal-breaker.

That was the case for Ryan Stewart, 38, an unaffiliated voter from Doylestown, Pa., who said he was leaning toward supporting Trump. A libertarian, he believes abortion should always be legal, and he doesn't think Trump agrees with him — but he sees economic issues as more important to him.

"It's not really an issue at hand for me," he said, referring to abortion.

The issue does give some Trump supporters pause, however. Chloe Langley, 18, considers herself a Republican. She believes Biden is too old to serve another term and thinks she'll vote for Trump in the fall. But her one reservation is on the issue of abortion.

"That's the only part where I don't know if I'm going to vote for him," Langley, a high school student, said. "Just because that's, like, taking away basic human rights that I believe people should have."

Supporters of Biden will be working hard to win over voters like Langley. They believe the issue of abortion rights will drive voters away from candidates who don't agree with them — as long as those voters understand the candidates' positions.

"When you ask voters, 'Will you vote for a Republican who holds these views?' more often than not they're going to say absolutely not," said Mackler, the Emily's List president.

There is some evidence this is the case. A poll by the progressive-leaning group Navigator Research found that 38 percent of voters said they couldn't vote for a candidate who held an opposing view on abortion — making it the top "deal-breaker" among all the issues they asked about, although inflation and immigration weren't too far behind.

An inverted American flag flies at the top of a flagpole next to a house.
A photo obtained by The New York Times shows an inverted flag at the residence of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito on Jan. 17, 2021, three days before President Biden's inauguration. 

INTO THE REPLIES

Tell me your neighborhood nightmares (the political ones, anyway)

You can't choose your family. And you also can't choose your neighbors.

This week, my colleague Jodi Kantor reported that an upside-down American flag — a symbol of the "Stop the Steal" movement that falsely contended the 2020 election was stolen from former President Trump — flew outside the home of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito just before Inauguration Day in early 2021. Justice Alito told The New York Times that his wife had put up the flag in response to "objectionable" signs displayed by their neighbors.

It's a red flag of sorts that raises urgent questions about Justice Alito's impartiality as the court was weighing whether or not to hear a case related to the 2020 election. But it's also a story about a tale as old as the cul-de-sac: the intra-neighbor political dispute.

We want to know: Have you had a fight with your neighbors over politics? Have you fought over yard signs or what makes for an appropriate political display? What are the politics of dealing with the politics of your neighbors?

Please, spill. Tell us the details. We won't use your name or identifying information unless we contact you and you grant us permission.

Send us your stories here.

THE RUN-UP

… And one more thing

What do Judge Aileen Cannon, Kendrick Lamar and a dog named Cricket have in common?

They are all figures not named Trump or Biden who might make a difference in the contest between Trump and Biden.

This week, I joined The Run-Up, the excellent politics podcast hosted by my colleague Astead Herndon to talk about those three figures, and so many more. You can also hear about a particularly harrowing experience we had during the 2020 presidential campaign. Give it a listen!

Thanks for reading, and enjoy your weekend. I'll be back Monday.

MORE POLITICS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

A diptych of Jasmine Crockett and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

From left: Valerie Plesch for The New York Times, Kenny Holston/The New York Times

critic's notebook

The Ugly Effect of Physical Insults

A recent congressional meeting devolved into a back-and-forth that reflects a changing norm in politics — one that rarely makes anybody look good.

By Vanessa Friedman

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont standing behind a lectern with the presidential seal on it.

Kenny Holston/The New York Times

In the Aging Senate, 80-Somethings Seeking Re-election Draw Little Criticism

Age and health have drawn intensive focus in the presidential race, but the recent news that two octogenarians in the Senate are running again has prompted little discussion of their age.

By Kayla Guo

Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, center, and Vivek Ramaswamy, right, attending Donald Trump's trial in Manhattan. They are standing amid a group of people, with Mr. Trump blurred in the foreground.

Pool photo by Craig Ruttle

To Be Trump's Running Mate, Defend Him, but Don't Steal the Show

Donald Trump's search is still in its early stages, but he is said to be leaning toward more experienced options who can help the ticket without seizing his precious spotlight.

By Michael C. Bender and Jesse McKinley

Donald J. Trump walks among uniformed officers and others who are wearing suits.

Pool photo by Jeenah Moon

New Ad Taunts Trump: 'Take the Stand, Donald, or Admit You're a Coward'

The ad, from a center-left group, points out that the former president has long been critical of people who take the Fifth Amendment to avoid testifying.

By Katie Glueck

Tim Sheehy, the leading Republican candidate for Senate in Montana, walking off a small stage at a campaign event.

Montana's Senate Race Could Come Down to One Question: Do I Trust You?

Republicans are trying to paint Senator Jon Tester as a Washington sellout, while their own candidate, Tim Sheehy, faces scrutiny over his credibility and how he sustained a gunshot wound.

By Kellen Browning and Tailyr Irvine

A television monitor on a large stand shows a split screen of Donald Trump and Joe Biden during a debate on CNN.

Hilary Swift for The New York Times

What to Know About CNN's Presidential Debate

The debate, scheduled for June 27, will be one of the earliest presidential debates ever scheduled.

By Chris Cameron

MORE POLITICS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

President Biden during a visit to the John A. Blatnik Bridge in Superior, Wis., in January. Next to him, several construction workers and other people in dark clothing are clapping.

Michael A. McCoy for The New York Times

Biden Waves His First-Term Résumé at a Skeptical America

With increasing urgency, the president is trying to impress upon voters that he has accomplished quite a bit — even if they don't see it in their lives yet.

By Nicholas Nehamas

Donald and Melania Trump stand posing for photographs in front of a white mansion.

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Trump, at Fund-Raiser, Says He Wants Immigrants From 'Nice' Countries

At rallies, Donald Trump frequently laments migrants from a list of countries from Africa, Asia and the Middle East as he stokes fears around the surge at the border.

By Maggie Haberman and Michael Gold

Adam Siegel, wearing an apron, chops garlic in a commercial kitchen.

Kevin Miyazaki for The New York Times

In Milwaukee, Restaurants and Venues Worry of Seeing Limited R.N.C. Boost

In Chicago, venues are booking fast for the Democratic convention in August. But Milwaukee, host of the Republican convention, is wondering if customers will come.

By Jonathan Weisman

Article Image

Kenny Holston/The New York Times, Rachel Woolf for The New York Times, Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch

Democrats are targeting incumbent Republicans in a number of districts President Biden won in 2020 — but the general rule is, as goes the presidential race, so go House races.

By Jonathan Weisman

Hundreds of pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered outside President Biden's high-dollar fund-raiser at Radio City Music Hall last month, and several made their way inside, repeatedly disrupting the event.

Andres Kudacki for The New York Times

How Gaza Protesters Are Challenging Democratic Leaders

From President Biden to the mayors of small cities, Democrats have been trailed by demonstrators who are complicating the party's ability to campaign in an election year.

By Lisa Lerer, Reid J. Epstein and Katie Glueck

Read past editions of the newsletter here.

If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here.

Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, makes sense of the latest political data.

Try four weeks of complimentary access to The Tilt

Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, makes sense of the latest political data.

Get it in your inbox
A square filled with smaller squares and rectangles in shades of red and blue. The numbers

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for On Politics from The New York Times.

To stop receiving On Politics, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request.

Subscribe to The Times

Connect with us on:

facebooktwitterinstagram

Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices

LiveIntent LogoAdChoices Logo

The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home