On Politics: This year’s Iowa caucuses are ice-cold
This year's Iowa caucuses are ice-coldIt's the Friday before Caucus Day, and in any other year, Iowa would be humming: candidates racing across the state, answering questions in living rooms, coffee shops and high school gyms. Last-minute get-out-the-vote speeches. Volunteers knocking on doors and handing out leaflets on street corners and in shopping malls. Not this year. Iowa was shut down today, under the threat of a worst-in-a-decade forecast of blinding blizzards and bitter cold. The high temperatures of zero predicted earlier this week now seem positively toasty, compared with what is promised for the days and nights ahead. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, soldiered out for one event Friday morning before throwing in the shovel, so to speak. Nikki Haley, the former United Nations ambassador, scratched her in-person schedule, moving the campaign from living rooms to Zoom. Donald Trump is due here on Saturday; stay tuned. "This is about the worst weather I remember for the Iowa caucuses," said Gordon Fischer, a former Democratic Party state leader, who has lived in Iowa for 40 years. It was a suitably desultory ending for what has turned into a desultory caucus. Even before the blizzard landed on top of Iowa, the campaign was lower in energy or suspense than any I can recall over some 30 years of covering caucuses. In a state where caucus observers were already scrapping for something to speculate about — and where hundreds of out-of-town political reporters are trapped in local hotels with no candidate events to cover — the misery of the weather has added a welcome bit of uncertainty. If the temperatures really plunge below zero on Monday night, how many Republicans will turn up for a contest that was already less than competitive? And if turnout does plummet with the temperatures, which candidates might that help or hurt? Historically, the Iowa caucuses have been interesting, if not determinative, kickoffs for nominating contests, cutting down front-runners and elevating little-known contenders. Even in the slowest campaign years, something interesting could usually be found in Iowa. That has not been the case for 2024. For one thing, there is no in-person Democratic caucus this time, so there's no chance for voters to see President Biden or his very long-shot challenger, Dean Phillips. That's partly the result of what my colleague Reid J. Epstein described as "the mother of all Iowa breakdowns" — the 2020 caucuses, when it took weeks before the winner was clear. The absence of a Democratic contest has left many Iowans, used to being participants, feeling like onlookers.
Scenarios for MondayWith polls showing Trump dominating the Republican field, those in search of a contest have resorted to speculating on secondary questions. What does it mean if the former president draws more than 50 percent of the vote, or beats his closest rival by a record-setting margin? If that happens, it's a fair interpretation that this is now indisputably Trump's Republican Party, and not just in Iowa — in case there was any doubt about that. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected Trump result could add a little fuel to what might otherwise seem a dying fire. "We could have a race for the nomination that is more real than anyone previously thought," said Jimmy Centers, a longtime Iowa Republican consultant.
Going into the final week of the contest, Trump was wary that his supporters might be lulled into complacency by the polls. He has used his appearances and events by surrogates to exhort them to turn out. But the question of whether Haley or DeSantis comes in second place — arguably the only thing approaching a real contest here — is not without meaning in determining the shape of the campaign in the weeks to come. If DeSantis comes in third place, after investing so much time and energy in the state, it's hard to see where he goes next, and how he gets there. If Haley comes in second, it will give her a lift going into New Hampshire, and all the more so if she picks up any voters who supported Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, who dropped out this week. Will the prospect of brutal weather on Monday change things? DeSantis's camp says that he has the strongest on-the-ground, get-out-the-vote operation. If true, that might certainly help him. "If the weather is inclement, the ground game is going to be critical," said Bob Vander Plaats, a close adviser to DeSantis and influential evangelical leader in Iowa. "I don't see any evidence of a Nikki ground game or a Trump ground game."
For what it's worth, Fischer, the former Democratic leader, offered a sprinkling (the last weather pun you will see in this newsletter) of hope for the candidates not named Trump. "The weather is terrible now," he said, adding "it may be better, even slightly better, on Monday night. Weather can change quickly here." Related: Trump's dominance and the snowy weather have chilled Iowa's caucus economy.
The last-chance danceRon DeSantis's team does have a plan, of sorts, according to the Times campaign reporter Nick Nehamas. The strategy, he told our colleague Astead Herndon on "The Run-Up" podcast this week, goes something like this: "For several months, it has reminded me of the meme — and I'm not going to capture it exactly right — but it's, like, Step 1, win Iowa. Step 2, I don't know! Step 3, beat Donald Trump." Astead talked with Nick and Jazmine Ulloa, who covers Nikki Haley for The Times, about how the last two serious Trump challengers are approaching the homestretch. The DeSantis side does feel "a little bit like a death march," Nick said, as the campaign crosses snowy Iowa multiple times a day to talk to relatively small crowds. According to Jazmine, Haley's crowds have been growing, despite some campaign missteps. She draws a wide range of people to her events: anti-Trump moderates but also people who ask about the fate of the "Jan. 6 political prisoners." It's just not clear whether enough of them will be drawn to her in the end. Hear more of their conversation on the podcast. More politics news and analysisDon Quixote: Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, is tilting at a windmill named Donald Trump. 14th Amendment: Oregon's Supreme Court will let Trump stay on the ballot, at least for now. Congress: Speaker Mike Johnson is standing by a deal to avert a government shutdown, spurning hard-right demands. American Idol: Iowa pastors say a video depicting Trump as godly is "very concerning." Trump on trial: Fani Willis, the Atlanta prosecutor, was accused of being romantically involved with the lead prosecutor she hired. Spousal relations: Did Ron DeSantis really shake his wife's hand at the Iowa debate? Surrogates: The Biden campaign is sending top allies, including the Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg, to Iowa. Follow live politics news and reporter updates here. The Scan
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